A few days ago, I saw a fan's message in the backend that made my heart ache: 'Teacher, I invested my entire half-year salary to catch the bottom, and now I'm down 20%. Should I add to my position?'

I quickly opened his position record; the entry time just happened to be the day when the whole internet was crazy about 'a certain key level is the iron bottom' — isn't this a typical 'bottom guesser' crash scene?

In the cryptocurrency market for 8 years, I have seen the most magical scene: as soon as the market drops, a group of 'precise bottom measurement' experts suddenly appear online, calculating the support level clearly; retail investors, with the mentality of 'missing out and regretting', rush in, only for the market to break through the so-called 'safety line', making the support level as fragile as paper.

Take this round of adjustment as an example. From everyone shouting 'a certain integer level is stable' to 'the next support must hold', there are always a large number of people rushing in to be 'the ones picking up the pieces', and in the end, the trapped positions piled up higher than the mountains.

Here I must highlight the core viewpoint from my 8 years of practical experience: the bottom is never guessed; it is 'voted' out by the market with real money!

Those who claim they can accurately calculate the bottom are either lucky to guess right once, or they are waiting to cut your leeks - if they really have the ability to precisely bottom fish, they would have quietly made a fortune by now, and would not be so eager to persuade you to enter.

I never oppose bottom fishing; on the contrary, I think the bottom is a golden opportunity for ordinary people to make a lot of money. However, the premise is 'wait for signals, don’t guess the bottom'. Based on my experiences in several major bottom scenarios, a true bottom must have these three characteristics; missing one means you absolutely cannot act!

Signal 1: Stable volume, the entry of capital is hard evidence.

What does it mean to have stable volume? It means that during a decline, a large bullish candle suddenly appears, and the trading volume is more than 30% higher than the average of the previous three days, and for the next three days, the stock price does not drop below the lowest point of this candle.

Capital is always the most honest! When prices fall, everyone is scared and hesitant to buy, but suddenly large funds enter to support the bottom, this is the reliable signal. After last year's major drop, I focused on this signal and decisively entered, gaining a direct return of 35% in the following half month - this is not a prediction, but a clear answer given by the funds.

Signal 2: Double bottom structure + consolidation, the main force accumulating positions will be testing people.

Just increasing volume is not enough; you have to look at the pattern. When the stock price drops to a certain position and rebounds without breaking the previous low during the pullback, forming a 'W' shaped double bottom structure, this is just the first step.

More importantly, after a double bottom, there must be at least two weeks of consolidation, during which the fluctuation must not exceed 10%. Why consolidate? To put it simply, it’s the main force accumulating positions! Before last year's 70% surge, the market consolidated for a whole month. At that time, many people complained about the slow pace and lack of patience, and they left in frustration. As a result, when the market started, they could only watch helplessly.

Signal 3: Emotional reversal; silence is the opportunity.

Open the community to see. If the screen is still full of calls like 'bottom fishing' and 'full position', then it is definitely not the bottom; when everyone is silent, and some even say 'I will never touch cryptocurrency again', the opportunity actually comes.

I will teach you a practical little tip: pay attention to the 'long-short ratio' of mainstream platforms. When the short ratio exceeds 70% and does not decrease for three consecutive days, it basically reaches the emotional bottom - the market is always against human nature; when everyone is in panic, it is often a turning point.

Finally, let me say something from the bottom of my heart:

Many people always think about making money from the 'fish head', believing that entering early can earn more, but they forget that the fish head is all bones! I have seen too many people, in order to grab that 10% profit, end up getting trapped 50% in, unable to withstand the pressure and cutting losses at the bottom, losing their hard-earned money for nothing.

In fact, after the bottom is confirmed, there are many opportunities to get in. Even waiting for a 10% rebound to enter is better than being trapped. This is especially true for spot trading; patience is not weakness, but a survival skill in the cryptocurrency market.

Next time someone tells you 'this is the bottom', don’t get ahead of yourself! First, compare with the three signals I mentioned.

Want to know how to track volume, patterns, and long-short ratios in real time? Follow me! Every Wednesday, I will break down the core market data and explain in plain language 'whether it is possible to enter now', without making vague predictions, only providing solid signal interpretations - follow me, so you won’t fall into traps next time you bottom fish!#加密市场反弹