While scrolling through the market at two in the morning, I received another private message: 'Teacher, with the market dropping like this, should we buy at the bottom?' I laughed—eight years ago, I was even more anxious, clutching 30,000 yuan for rent, staring at the plummeting market with trembling hands.
As an analyst who has immersed myself in the crypto market for 8 years, I have seen too many people rushing in shouting 'get rich overnight', and I have accompanied many old followers from tens of thousands to seven figures. Today, I won't serve you motivational quotes; instead, I will share my own real experience of going from not even being able to pay rent to slowly rolling to 80 million—there are three core anti-common sense iron rules that, if understood, can help you avoid five years of detours.
Anti-common sense 1: Those who shout to buy at the bottom during a sharp drop are all traps; grinding to the bottom during a slow decline is the treasure.
I will remember the wave of crashes in the deep winter of 2016 for the rest of my life. At that time, I only had 30,000 left, and my friend urgently urged me to 'buy the dip on mainstream coins'. I couldn't even tell the moving averages and MACD on the candlestick chart, and I forced myself to ask, 'With such a sharp drop, aren't you afraid of getting stuck?' He said a sentence that I still remember: 'Those who survive in the market first can wait for the day they make money.'
Later, I realized: the biggest trap in this industry is 'panic buying at the bottom'. During a sharp decline, emotions collapse quickly, and major players love to take advantage of the situation to slam the market; but a slow decline is different—the more it grinds down, the more it can wash out restless chips, and this is when the real 'golden pit' appears.
In 2020, there was a potential new coin that fell from $8 all the way down to $2.5, and the community was filled with complaints—some said it would 'go to zero', while others shouted to 'cut losses quickly'. I was not flustered and followed my own established iron rules: buy once every 20% drop, and each time not exceeding 10% of total funds, absolutely no all-in. With this silly method, I eventually brought the cost down to $3.1. After the new year, the market started, and when it rose to $40, I decisively exited, making a twelvefold profit on a single transaction.
Anti-common sense 2: The hotter the trending topic, the more you should run; during silence and sideways movement, you must dare to hold.
The most common mistake beginners make is treating 'trending topics' as signals. In 2021, there was a hot animal concept coin that dominated the screens, and half of my friends were showcasing their holdings, saying they would 'shoot for 10 times'. But when I opened the data panel, I found that the on-chain trading volume had been decreasing for a week; something was off—heat was rising, but real trading was falling, isn't that 'inflated'? I cleared my position that day, and three days later, the coin was directly halved, with my friend circle filled with loss postings.
On the contrary, opportunities often hide during 'silence'. In that bear market of 2018, mainstream coins hovered around $3,200 for two weeks, and the group chat shifted from discussing market trends to talking about takeout; some said 'the market is cold', and some directly uninstalled the software. I, however, steadfastly invested 100 USDT every day—when the trading volume hit rock bottom, it indicated that those who wanted to sell had mostly sold, and further drops would be limited. I continued this for six months, controlling my cost to below $4,000, and later when the market started, I directly doubled my investment during the main upward wave.
Here’s a useful tip: when judging the market, don't trust emotions, trust the data; trading volume is the 'mirror of truth'—if the heat doesn't match the trading volume, it will definitely drop; when trading volume hits bottom during silence, it is highly likely to rise.
Anti-common sense 3: Those who dare to say 'I don't understand' are the closest to money.
The most dangerous moment for me in 8 years was in 2019 when I almost got liquidated. At that time, I thought I understood the market, holding a 70% position to chase a new coin, and even boasted to my fans 'it will definitely rise 5 times'. As soon as I entered, it started to adjust, and within three days, I lost 30%. Watching my margin balance dwindle, I suddenly woke up: I completely did not understand the underlying logic of this coin; I was just misled by market emotions.
Since then, I have engraved 'stop when in doubt' into my strategy. No matter how others hype 'hundredfold coins' or 'god-level projects', as long as I don't understand the underlying technology or cannot figure out the flow of funds, I will never touch it, even if I miss out. On the contrary, those targets where I can see through the logic and dare to position during silence have never made me lose big money.
To be honest, there are no gods in the crypto market. I have seen too many people with 'sure-win strategies' lose enough to delete their accounts, and I have also seen many steadfast individuals following iron rules gradually become wealthy. I am not a 'teacher' who will make you rich overnight; I am just an old hand who has stepped in countless pits and chewed the experience to feed you.
In the future, I will break down more real cases, teach you how to look at trading volume signals, how to formulate a replenishment plan, and even expose those 'harvesting tactics'. Please follow me; when the next market comes, don’t panic and act like a rookie—we will make money steadily together!
