The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book shows that the U.S. economy is weak, with downgraded consumption and cooling employment raising the probability of a rate cut in December to 85%, bringing new expectations to the market.

Core Points

Economic Cooling: Overall consumption is declining, with only high-income groups still supporting it. The job market is weak, with half of the regions experiencing a decrease in hiring demand.

Policy Divergence: There are significant disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding the rate cut in December, but key officials like Williams and Waller have expressed support for the cut.

Market Response: The expectation of a rate cut has driven continuous increases in the cryptocurrency market. If it materializes in December, it could further boost market liquidity preference.

Lao Luo's Commentary: The rising expectation of a rate cut is a short-term boon for risk assets, but the economic weakness is fundamental. Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's decision on December 10, but don't forget that weak fundamentals are the true "weakness." Control your positions and stay flexible!

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