While the market is still debating BTC's volatile movements, a key signal overlooked by 90% of retail investors is flashing red—ETH/BTC ratio has quietly fallen to a critical support zone not seen in three years. On the surface, ETH appears to be consolidating within the 2840-2860 range, seemingly without any waves, but this hidden ratio indicator is recreating the historical script that ignited ETH's super bull runs in the past three instances.

The Third Historical Reenactment: After the Ratio Hits Bottom, ETH Enters Frenzied Mode

If you missed the tripling of ETH in the first three instances, you cannot ignore this "wealth code" this time. Let's let the data speak for itself and see how astonishing ETH's explosive power has been each time the ratio hit bottom:

  • May 2020: Ratio 0.022 hits bottom — at that time, BTC had just undergone a halving, market sentiment was low, and the ETH/BTC ratio fell to a phase trough. But then liquidity began to flow back, and as the leader of the application layer, ETH took the lead, skyrocketing from $180 to $756 in just six months, an increase of 320%, far exceeding BTC's 160% increase during the same period.

  • July 2021: Ratio 0.058 hits bottom — the crypto market experienced a deep correction, with ETH once dropping to $1,700. However, after the ratio hit bottom, ETH entered its second frenzy mode, surging to $4,891 within three months, an increase of 280%, while BTC only rose from $30,000 to $67,000 during the same period, an increase of 123%.

  • June 2023: Ratio 0.062 hits bottom — the SEC regulatory storm swept through the market, with ETH once dropping to $1,620. But the ratio once again gave a clear signal, and subsequently, ETH rose to $4,080 within four months, an increase of 150%, while BTC rose from $25,000 to $44,000 during the same period, an increase of 76%.

Key rule: Every time the ETH/BTC ratio falls to a critical support zone, ETH's increase is 1.8-2.6 times that of BTC, showcasing the elastic advantage of application layer assets when liquidity rebounds.

Core logic: ETH is not a 'currency', but the 'application engine' of the crypto world.

Why does ETH always outperform BTC after the ratio hits bottom? The answer lies in the fundamental differences between the two:

BTC is positioned as 'digital gold', with its core value in store of value and inflation resistance, leaning more towards a macro asset allocation tool. In contrast, ETH is essentially the underlying infrastructure for decentralized application ecosystems, serving as the 'operating system' of the entire Web3 world.

When market sentiment is low and liquidity is tightening, funds tend to flow into 'safe assets' like BTC, causing the ETH/BTC ratio to drop; however, once the market warms up and liquidity flows back, funds shift from 'defensive assets' to 'growth assets' — after all, ETH carries a massive array of application scenarios including DeFi (with locked value exceeding $100 billion), NFT (market cap over $20 billion), Layer 2 (total TVL over $30 billion), and this real ecological value will drive ETH to experience a dual-driven market of valuation recovery + performance growth.

Current signal: Ratio hits bottom + price sideways, the calm before the storm.

The current situation is even more interesting: ETH price is steadily standing in the $2,840-$2,860 range, not following BTC's fluctuations to continue falling, but the ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to the bottom range of 0.055. This conveys two key messages:

  1. ETH has stopped declining — under the continuous drop of the ratio, ETH's price can maintain sideways movement, indicating strong buying power below, with $2,800 becoming a phase iron bottom.

  2. The main force is quietly accumulating — retail investors often only look at the single price of ETH, while the main force focuses on the ratio layout. When the ratio drops to historical support zones, smart money is using BTC to exchange for ETH, preparing for the next round of market.

Cycle code: BTC sets the stage, ETH performs, an unchanging rhythm.

Looking back at the past four bull and bear cycles, the crypto market has consistently followed the rhythm of 'BTC trends → ETH takes off → ETH surges'.

1. Early bull market: BTC takes the lead, establishing market trends and attracting new funds into the market;
2. Mid-bull market: Funds begin to spread to the application layer, and ETH, leveraging its ecological advantages, initiates a catch-up rally;
3. Late bull market: ETH's increase surpasses BTC's, becoming the market leader until the bubble peaks.

Now, BTC has risen from $15,000 to $38,000, and the trend is clear. However, the ETH/BTC ratio has just dropped to the historical support zone, indicating that ETH's catch-up rally is just beginning.

Final reminder: Retail investors always sell in fear, while the main force always accumulates in panic. When the ETH/BTC ratio drops to such a historically significant support zone, the opportunity is often much greater than the risk. This is not to suggest you blindly go all in, but to remind you — this undervalued signal is worth adding to your watchlist. $ETH#EconomicAlert