Bitcoin’s explosive run to a new all-time high at $126,000 marked a historic moment—but from a technical perspective, it may also represent the completion of a full five-wave impulsive cycle on the higher timeframes.
The monthly and weekly charts both display classic signs of exhaustion at the top of Wave 5: fading momentum, bearish divergence, and a sharp initial reversal.
If this wave count is correct, Bitcoin is now entering a multi-month corrective phase before the next major macro bull wave begins.
1. Wave (5) Likely Completed at $126,000 — Cycle Top Confirmed
From the November 2022 bottom near $15,000, Bitcoin has rallied in a remarkably clean Elliott Wave impulse:
Wave 3 peaked around $73k
Wave 4 corrected into $56k
Wave 5 extended sharply into $126k, ending with a dramatic momentum slowdown
The structure is textbook.
The emotions at the top were classic too—euphoria, rapid inflows, and overstretched indicators.
All signals lined up to indicate that Wave (5) had likely topped.
2. Wave A: Sharp Breakdown Toward the $80k Zone
The violent decline from $117k → $80k unfolded in a clear five-wave impulsive structure, which is typical of:
Wave A of an ABC correction
This drop reset overheated indicators and shook out weak hands. Lower-timeframe divergences show buyers returning, suggesting that Wave A is completed or very close to it.
3. Wave B Relief Rally: Targeting $100k–$112k
After Wave A bottoms, the market typically rallies in a corrective Wave B, which often retraces 38%–61.8% of Wave A’s decline.
That places Bitcoin’s next short-term upside targets around:
🎯Likely Wave B Targets
$94k – $100k
$110k – $112k (Extended retracement)
Wave B rallies often feel bullish and convincing—but historically, they’re traps for late buyers as they precede the deepest part of the correction.
4. Wave C: The Final Washout Toward $70k–$58k
Once Wave B tops out, Bitcoin would likely begin Wave C, the final and usually most powerful leg of the correction.
Using Fibonacci projections and typical Elliott Wave behavior:
📉 Expected Wave C Targets
$71k (0.5 Fib retracement)
$58k (0.618 Fib – major accumulation zone)
This range aligns with long-term support and is the area where institutional buyers typically step back in.
5. After the ABC Correction: A New Macro Bull Wave Begins
Once the ABC structure is complete, Bitcoin should begin a new higher-degree Wave 1, forming the foundation for the next bull cycle.
📈 Potential Macro Targets (2026–2027)
$150,000
$180,000
Possible extension into $200,000+
This would align with Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle rhythm and post-halving expansion phases.
🔍 Summary of the Elliott Wave Outlook
Wave (5) likely ended at $126k
Wave A fell to the $80k region
Wave B rebound expected toward $100k–$112k
Wave C likely to bottom around $70k–$58k
A new macro bull cycle should begin afterward
⚠️ Remember:
This is a technical, probability-based outlook.
Key levels, macro factors, or unexpected volatility can adjust the wave count.
Risk management is essential—especially during corrective phases.
#BTCVolatility #BitcoinCorrection #elliottwaves
