$ETH is signaling a clear “sell the bounce” setup after a violent markdown into the low-3ks — treat any rally as a shorting opportunity. Today’s accelerated selloff erased the Oct 10 swing low (~3,460) and printed fresh local lows near 3,079–3,131 on heavy volume. Price is hovering ~3,208 after a muted intraday rebound that faltered below the first resistance bands (3,230–3,330). The higher-timeframe structure remains decisively bearish: lower highs and now lower lows, expanding ATR and distribution on volume confirm a real downtrend, not a short-lived chop.
What to expect next (24h view)
- Base path (55–60%): A relief bounce into the 3.33–3.40k shelf (ideal 3.33–3.40k), rejection there, then a continuation lower to re-test 3.10–3.05k, with a possible sweep of the 3.00k handle if risk sentiment worsens.
- Bear extension (25–30%): Shallow or no bounce and a direct slide through 3,115 → 3,050 → 3,000, with a potential flush into the 2,960–2,920 range.
- Bull surprise (10–15%): Rapid V-reversal and reclaim above ~3,490–3,500 would invalidate the near-term short thesis.
Why the edge is shorting rallies
- Price action: Intraday cascade of supply steps (3,550 → 3,430 → 3,365 → 3,229 → 3,131 → 3,079) with capitulation-range hourly prints and heavy volume at lows — symptomatic of distribution and stop-hunting rather than exhaustion buys.
- Volume & momentum: OBV and daily momentum are negative; ATR has exploded (today’s range 400–500+ pts estimated). Short-term oscillators show an
