• The exit of the price of digital gold from consolidation is impossible until the uncertainty regarding the winner of the U.S. presidential elections is resolved.

  • On election night, the price movement of the first cryptocurrency could be 3.5% in either direction.

  • Without a new catalyst, the exit of altcoins from "apathy" is unlikely.

Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections, Bitcoin will return to a trajectory above the macro trend by the second quarter of 2025. This forecast was made by Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan.

Facts:
☑️ R/S Flip at $69k has been invalidated
☑️ Trend Precognition ⬇️ #TradingSignals on the $BTC W chart are gaining strength
☑️ Technical Support at the 21-Day MA has been lost
☑️ @Polymarket Narrative Traders are getting rekt
☑️ Technical Support at the 50-Day MA is coming… pic.twitter.com/Fs0VSqgQ9h

— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) November 4, 2024

"We will not get relief from this 'storm' caused by politics, anxiety, stress, chaos, or market volatility until inauguration day on January 20," the specialist explained.

According to Alan, a Trump victory will trigger a 'reflexive' positive reaction, while if power remains with the Democrats, the opposite will occur.

"Bitcoin will not reach a new ATH until the votes are counted," he suggested.

The expert noted that various support lines, including the mid-cycle peak of April 2021 and the 21 DMA, failed to serve as support.

The night after the elections

Bitfinex stated that a 'calm before the storm' has arrived in anticipation of the U.S. elections—after reaching a three-month high, implied volatility of Bitcoin has begun to decline.

CoinGlass data showed a decrease in open interest in derivatives: traders reduced longs and shorts.

"Despite the general expectation of increased price fluctuations ahead of the U.S. elections on November 5, many market participants are hesitant to take any action, adopting a wait-and-see position," the review states.

Experts predicted a powerful surge in volatility immediately after the event. Its absence could be a sign of a "much deeper correction."

According to QCP Capital's calculations, on the night of the presidential race's conclusion, the price movement of the first cryptocurrency could be 3.5% in either direction.

QCP US Election Commentary — 5 Nov 24

1/ The day has finally arrived. Market tension is rising across stocks, treasuries, and crypto, ahead of what’s shaping up to be one of the tightest U.S. presidential races in history.

— QCP (@QCPgroup) November 5, 2024

"Traders may be underestimating the risk associated with the elections: the lack of a volatility premium after the expiration on November 8 suggests that markets expect a quick resolution, possibly not accounting for potential delays or disputed outcomes," analysts warned.

Experts recorded active purchases of both 'upper' calls and 'lower' puts. In their opinion, the dynamics of digital gold still reflect the 'Trump deal.'

What about altcoins?

Bitfinex described the current situation in the altcoin sector as "apathy."

"The speculative interest that once supported this category has vanished. This is reflected in stable financing rates and a 'muted' overall sentiment. In conditions where Bitcoin absorbs most of the capital inflow to the market, altcoins are struggling. Without a new catalyst, their chances of a comeback seem insignificant," specialists noted.

Earlier, analyst Willy Woo stated that altcoin seasons will continue, but the intensity of returns will decrease as the cryptocurrency market matures.

Recall that Hashkey Capital believes that simply exceeding the historical maximum of digital gold is not sufficient to start a new cycle in assets. According to their estimates, Bitcoin must 'pull up' to $80,000 for this.