btcusdt

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is headed towards a 1D MA200 rejection, which as mentioned is what historically kickstarts Phase 2 of the Bear Cycle.
This excellent indicator that illustrates not only the Halving events but also the most optimal Sell and Buy levels based on the Fibonacci Time extension levels shows that the next point of interest is the 4.618 Fibonacci Time extension on the final week of September 2026, where the Cycle is expected to bottom.
With the next Halving estimated in April 2028, we will still be far from the start of the Profit Taking Zone (green vertical layers), which historically starts taking place around 38 weeks (266 days) after the Halving, but the 4.618 Time Fib its technically ideal for long-term buying again. Based on this model the price should be at least at $60000 by that time.
We also see that the price didn't even reach the orange Rainbow Wave on this Bull Cycle, confirming the Law of Diminishing Returns. But the timing of the Fibonacci Time extensions, as we first did more than 7 years ago, worked again to perfection. And this is why on this market (and as a matter of fact on most of them), it is more important to plan buying and selling based on time rather than absolute prices.
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I think you already know the answer to this question just because I am asking.

Bitcoin is green this week. Last week it was red. This week it moved above EMA8 and is set to close above this level. EMA89 has been confirmed as support. The high point was $97,925.

Long pause or small pause? Suspense... Let's continue.

The 21 April 2025 week Bitcoin moved above EMA8. The moment this happened we had a strong bullish wave. Present day, we've been expecting and waiting for this wave for almost two months and it is finally here. When the action turns bullish, while we were expecting a bullish breakout, it is never the end but just the start.

So the market is bullish but we are still highly conditioned by the bearish period that preceded this relief rally. While we can see the action unfolding right in front of our eyes, the moment the market makes a small pause we tend to doubt.

You know what? We are good because we are bullish within a bullish wave. Doubt does nothing if you don't take action. The ones that are in a bad situation right now are the bears. For them, it is not about doubt, it is about selling once more and this ends up in disaster.

Stay safe—play safe, Bitcoin will continue to grow. The same for Ethereum and the altcoins.

Bitcoin will produce only a small pause. That's my prediction based on the overall market and this chart.

Namaste.

✅ Trade here on $BTC

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Let's look at what a green close means for February & March, what to expect when it comes to price action.

A positive close on the monthly session means the closing price is equal to or higher than the open. For example: Say January closes at $104,000. It can go higher during the month but by the time it closes the price is 104K. This is the open for February.

In February prices start rising and we get $110,000, $115,000 even $118,000 and so on. 13-February Bitcoin is at its highest, in this example can be any price between $114,000 to $120,000 or anything you think is possible. As the month reaches a close, prices start to go down. By the end of February we get $105,000 and the month ends.

See how in this example we get an open price of $104,000 and a close at $105,000 and we still get a green close on the monthly session. The upper wick would reach $114,000 or $120,000, whatever was the peak price.

But what about March?

It is the same. Let's assume we get a red close in March but this doesn't mean that the entire month we get bearish action. Say March opens at $105,000 and Bitcoin goes up to $112,000. Slowly but it gets there. Then it starts to go down, it fluctuates down and up but the month ends up closing at $100,000 and this gives us a red close. $105,000 the open vs $100,000 the close.

The ensuing months bearish momentum can intensify. This is all assuming we get a repeat of the last relief rally in 2022 which lasted two months.

These are just some examples to have an idea as to what we can expect. Whenever Bitcoin grows just a tiny bit, the altcoins will produce a strong reaction.

How to know when the bear market bottom is in?

When Bitcoin hits bottom, maybe after three months red after the end of the bullish period (five months total, three months for the intensity, steep decline and bearish momentum), we can know because of a major, major advance on the altcoins. All the pairs will be growing between 100-300% in a matter of days. Can be one or two weeks at max followed by additional growth. This is the way to spot the bottom.

We can also know based on Bitcoin's chart, the daily RSI when it gets to oversold, the Fibonacci retracement tool, the MACD, and the candles coupled with the volume. When the low is in, a lower low will have lower volume than a preceding low.

You don't have to worry about these technicalities though ecause I will be reading the charts for you. I will share the trade-numbers for the SHORTs when the market is at the top just as I shared all the trade-numbers for the LONGs when the market was at the bottom. I will continue to do this long-term.

Thank you for reading. Your support is highly appreciated.

Namaste.

✅ Trade here on $BTC