#WTICrudeTouches$73 WTI: $75+ ↑ — Brent: ~$79 — Strait of Hormuz: 6 ships/24h (normally 130+)
WTI crude hit $73 last week and is now ripping above $75 today as the US-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz escalates into full-blown hostilities again. Brent's at $79, up ~4.5% at open.
What's happening:
Trump declared the ceasefire "over" at the NATO summit. The US revoked waivers allowing Iranian oil sales, launched new strikes on Iranian targets. Iran retaliated — the IRGC hit US assets in Oman and Bahrain, and claimed it has closed the Strait of Hormuz again. Only 6 ships crossed in the past 24 hours . Normally it's 130+.
Market impact: Oil majors are ripping — BP +2.7%, Shell +1.5%, TotalEnergies +2.3%. But European stocks are getting crushed, Asian markets tumbling, and rate expectations are ticking up as the inflation headache returns. Gold actually fell 1.2% to $4,056 — the dollar strength from risk-off flows is outweighing the typical oil-gold correlation.
The bigger picture: Iran has proven it can still choke the global energy chokepoint at will. Shipping has collapsed ~92% from normal levels. While oil is still far below the $120 peak during the worst of the conflict earlier, every escalation resets the floor higher. The catalyst trifecta this week — CPI Tuesday, Warsh testimony, and Big 4 bank earnings — means oil's move will matter beyond just energy markets.
Key Levels: $73 was the first touch. WTI now at $75. If it holds above $75, $80 becomes the next magnet. Brent $80 is the psychological trigger that starts seriously feeding into rate expectations.
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