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Mike McGlone, chief commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has opined that Bitcoin might be the leading indicator of the next recession.🙃
He argues that some asset-price signals (gold at record highs, falling Treasury yields, rebounding equity volatility) look like early warning signs historically associated with major economic reset events.
Bitcoin is a high-beta risk asset whose price reacts quickly to changes in global risk sentiment. If the flagship cryptocurrency starts to fall sharply, it may be an early market signal that leverage is unwinding.
$10,000 price target 🎯
McGlone has maintained a consistently bearish outlook on Bitcoin throughout the past two months. He argues that Bitcoin's sharp decline from its 2025 peaks indicates the onset of post-inflation deflationary pressures.
This is a similar pattern to the one that was observed in 2007 when the Federal Reserve began easing rates, only for markets to eventually crater.
McGlone frequently points to Bitcoin's tendency toward mean reversion. He has predicted that the cryptocurrency could revisit the $50,000 level, potentially plunging even lower toward $10,000 in a more severe scenario.
He has been consistently bullish on gold. The yellow metal has managed to shine in 2025 while Bitcoin, crude oil, and other risk assets have faltered.
Late-stage bull market🔥✅
McGlone contends that the crypto's maturation and ETF inflows mark a late-stage bull market peak akin to dot-com excesses. He believes that the S&P 500 could record its third down year since 2008. The analyst has predicted possible trajectories toward 5,000 for the index alongside $50,000 Bitcoin in 2026.
#BTCVSGOLD #BinanceBlockchainWeek #BTC86kJPShock #Bloomberg $BTC

If you’re thinking of selling here because “the cycle is over”, you’re lining up to be exit liquidity for institutions.

Not being dramatic. The stakes are actually huge.

If you sell BTC now because you think a time-based bear market *must* start after the halving, there’s a good chance you’re selling:

> near the bottom

> at a loss

> right before the biggest liquidity wave we’ve ever seen

Yes, in the last 3 cycles BTC topped around Q4 of the post-halving year.

Yes, each time it dumped ~80% after.

That’s where the “4-year cycle” religion comes from.

But here’s what almost everyone is missing:

The halving didn’t *cause* those cycles.

It just lined up with the **real driver**:

> global liquidity + the business cycle.

Every big BTC run had the same pattern:

> Central banks flooded the system with money (QE, credit impulses).

> Liquidity expanded.

> PMI (business cycle index) bottomed, then pushed above 50 → 55 → 60

> BTC and then alts went vertical.

2013: Fed QE.

2017: ECB, BoJ, China all printing.

2020–2021: record global QE after COVID.

Each time, the halving “fit the story”.

But the **liquidity** did the heavy lifting.

Now look at this cycle:

> Last 2 years = QT, higher rates, tight liquidity.

> PMI flat/down.

> BTC *should* have been in a textbook bull, but reality said “not yet”.

Here’s the flip:

> QT is ending.

> Cuts are coming.

> A new Fed chair is likely.

> US + rest of world are incentivized to **expand** again (debt, elections, AI arms race, etc.).

We have **never** entered a true bear market while liquidity is expanding.

Not once.

And this time, we also have:

>Spot ETFs

> Massive TradFi flows

> Algorithms that trade liquidity, not rainbow charts

Larry Fink is not watching your “4-year cycle” memes.

He’s watching M2, the Fed balance sheet, PMI, and risk-on signals.

So if you sell your BTC now because “this is where the cycle always ends”:

You’re likely selling your coins to institutions **right before** the real liquidity cycle even starts.

My view is simple:

I’m watching liquidity.

I’m watching PMI.

As long as money is starting to flow back into the system, I’m holding or buying not donating my bags to the 4-year cycle cult.

The halving pattern made you feel safe.

Liquidity is what actually paid you#BTCVSGOLD #BinanceBlockchainWeek

Every cycle in crypto finds its own heartbeat a theme that starts in whispers and then suddenly becomes the only thing anyone talks about Right now that pulse is the convergence of AI and crypto not as a marketing mashup but as a real shift in how digital systems behave build and evolve
For years AI and crypto lived in different worlds AI chased intelligence speed and automation while crypto chased decentralization ownership and trustlessness Then something changed almost overnight Builders started creating systems where autonomous agents could move on chain by themselves They could hold wallets make decisions execute transactions respond to data and coordinate without waiting for human approval And once the space noticed that machines could finally participate directly in the crypto economy the narrative exploded
At the center of this shift are AI agents not chatbots not simple scripts but autonomous digital beings They can analyze markets run strategies provide services manage portfolios or interact with smart contracts entirely on their own They are the new economic participants of the internet and they operate nonstop
Next come the agentic blockchains These networks are designed from the ground up for machine level activity They focus on insane speed predictable fees scalable micro transactions and clean separation between humans and agents For the first time AI has an on chain environment that actually matches its pace its logic and its need for constant coordination
Then we have the data protocols the third pillar of this new stack AI needs verified trustworthy information to operate effectively and crypto is the perfect source of that Through oracles and next generation data layers AI agents can read markets react to real world events and interact with systems using clean verifiable inputs This turns blockchains into live environments where AI can think and act with confidence
Put all three pieces together and you get why Q4 is becoming the breakout moment The agent stack is no longer just hype It is infrastructure And infrastructure is what fuels decade long narratives not weekend pumps
Across the ecosystem the early signals are loud Projects building agent frameworks are seeing a surge in demand Chains optimized for agent activity are catching developer attention Data layers tailored for AI are becoming critical even traditional tech companies are beginning to acknowledge the rise of agent economies
The reason this meta is so powerful is simple AI is evolving faster than anything we have seen and crypto has already built the rails for autonomous value exchange When you merge them you create an economy where machines can earn spend coordinate and contribute in ways humans alone cannot scale
Investors know it Traders know it Builders definitely know it Everyone is trying to position themselves early because this does not feel like a passing trend It feels like a category being born
And this narrative will only grow stronger going into the next cycle Agentic chains will dominate conversation Data layers will become indispensable AI powered automation will become normal on chain The moment a real large scale use case goes live everything will shift
Right now we are standing at the start of a transformation AI and crypto are not merging by accident They are merging because each one completes what the other was missing Intelligence meets decentralization Automation meets trustless execution Agents meet on chain finance
And that is why the AI x Crypto convergence is becoming the defining meta of Q4 and maybe the defining movement of the next era entirely a new economy built on nonstop autonomous agents shaping the digital world
#crypto #AI #BinanceBlockchainWeek