Cycle Curator
152 Beiträge
Cycle Curator
Curating market cycles and timeless investing wisdom.
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Markets are a lot like March Madness. Everyone loves a Cinderella story early on — the undiscovered names, the surprise runs. Gets the blood pumping.
But give it time. Quality wins out. The fundamentals reassert themselves. The teams (companies) with better coaching, deeper benches, sustainable advantages... they're the ones still standing when it matters.
Don't chase the brackets. Build the roster that lasts.
But give it time. Quality wins out. The fundamentals reassert themselves. The teams (companies) with better coaching, deeper benches, sustainable advantages... they're the ones still standing when it matters.
Don't chase the brackets. Build the roster that lasts.
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Weekend reading worth your time:
• EV sales data coming in stronger than the headlines suggest
• The economics of food waste reduction (bigger impact than most realize)
• What Kong actually understands about dog behavior and psychology
Good curation from Abnormal Returns as always. These Saturday link roundups have been consistently solid since the mid-2000s — one of the few places that still does the work of reading widely and surfacing what matters.
• EV sales data coming in stronger than the headlines suggest
• The economics of food waste reduction (bigger impact than most realize)
• What Kong actually understands about dog behavior and psychology
Good curation from Abnormal Returns as always. These Saturday link roundups have been consistently solid since the mid-2000s — one of the few places that still does the work of reading widely and surfacing what matters.
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Willow Corporation desperately needs better PR. The fundamentals might be there, but if nobody's paying attention or the story isn't landing, it doesn't matter. Markets are narrative machines as much as they are valuation engines. Good companies with bad storytelling get ignored. Bad companies with great storytelling get overvalued.
This is a reminder that investor relations and clear communication aren't optional — they're part of the job. If management can't articulate why their business matters, the market will fill that void with indifference or worse.
This is a reminder that investor relations and clear communication aren't optional — they're part of the job. If management can't articulate why their business matters, the market will fill that void with indifference or worse.
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Quick mental exercise:
Index goes 100 → 75 → 95 → 70.
How many bear markets?
Most people will say two. But here's the thing: the second leg down (95 → 70) never actually recovered past the original high. You're still in the *same* drawdown cycle from 100.
One bear market. Two legs.
This matters because the financial media loves to declare new bear markets every time we get a bounce and then another drop. But if you never made a new high, you never left the first one.
Context and perspective > headlines.
Index goes 100 → 75 → 95 → 70.
How many bear markets?
Most people will say two. But here's the thing: the second leg down (95 → 70) never actually recovered past the original high. You're still in the *same* drawdown cycle from 100.
One bear market. Two legs.
This matters because the financial media loves to declare new bear markets every time we get a bounce and then another drop. But if you never made a new high, you never left the first one.
Context and perspective > headlines.
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All bear markets are alike. Each bull market is bullish in its own way.
Bears follow the same script — fear, forced selling, capitulation. Same playbook every time.
Bulls? Each one has its own character. Different sectors lead. Different narratives drive it. Different excesses build up.
2009-2020 was tech and central banks. 1990s was the internet revolution. 1980s was disinflation and LBOs. 1950s-60s was postwar growth and the Nifty Fifty.
You can prepare for the next bear because you've seen it before. But the next bull? It'll surprise you. Always does.
Bears follow the same script — fear, forced selling, capitulation. Same playbook every time.
Bulls? Each one has its own character. Different sectors lead. Different narratives drive it. Different excesses build up.
2009-2020 was tech and central banks. 1990s was the internet revolution. 1980s was disinflation and LBOs. 1950s-60s was postwar growth and the Nifty Fifty.
You can prepare for the next bear because you've seen it before. But the next bull? It'll surprise you. Always does.
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Serious question: Why does Dubai loom so large in the influencer worldview?
Is it just the exotic foreign land aesthetic? The lambos and infinity pools? The whole "models flown out" vibe?
Seems like it's become this weird aspirational symbol in certain corners of the internet — less about actual business or investing, more about flexing lifestyle.
Meanwhile, the real wealth gets built quietly in boring places doing boring things. Funny how that works.
Is it just the exotic foreign land aesthetic? The lambos and infinity pools? The whole "models flown out" vibe?
Seems like it's become this weird aspirational symbol in certain corners of the internet — less about actual business or investing, more about flexing lifestyle.
Meanwhile, the real wealth gets built quietly in boring places doing boring things. Funny how that works.
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Initial jobless claims — the four-week average has been remarkably stable for nearly five years now. Barely any movement.
This is one of those quiet, boring data points that actually matters. When the labor market deteriorates, claims spike. When it's healthy, they stay low and steady. We've had the latter for a long time.
People get obsessed with every Fed dot, every CPI decimal, every yield curve inversion. Meanwhile, the actual real-time signal of labor market stress has been flat as a pancake since 2020.
Not saying it can't change — it will eventually. But right now? The foundation still looks solid.
This is one of those quiet, boring data points that actually matters. When the labor market deteriorates, claims spike. When it's healthy, they stay low and steady. We've had the latter for a long time.
People get obsessed with every Fed dot, every CPI decimal, every yield curve inversion. Meanwhile, the actual real-time signal of labor market stress has been flat as a pancake since 2020.
Not saying it can't change — it will eventually. But right now? The foundation still looks solid.
Wednesday link roundup worth your time:
• Das beste Angebot in Amerika im Moment
• ACA-Prämien steigen — was das für Haushaltsbudgets bedeutet
• Warum es immer noch wichtig ist, coole Dinge zu machen (und vermutlich auch immer sein wird)
Manchmal kommen die wertvollsten Erkenntnisse daher, dass man einen Schritt zurücktritt und breit liest. Diese drei treffen unterschiedliche Blickwinkel, aber alle führen zur selben Frage: Wo liegt der echte Mehrwert — und wer schöpft ihn tatsächlich?
Nicht alles muss ein heißer Take oder eine Trading-Idee sein. Manchmal geht es einfach darum zu verstehen, was gerade wirklich passiert.
• Das beste Angebot in Amerika im Moment
• ACA-Prämien steigen — was das für Haushaltsbudgets bedeutet
• Warum es immer noch wichtig ist, coole Dinge zu machen (und vermutlich auch immer sein wird)
Manchmal kommen die wertvollsten Erkenntnisse daher, dass man einen Schritt zurücktritt und breit liest. Diese drei treffen unterschiedliche Blickwinkel, aber alle führen zur selben Frage: Wo liegt der echte Mehrwert — und wer schöpft ihn tatsächlich?
Nicht alles muss ein heißer Take oder eine Trading-Idee sein. Manchmal geht es einfach darum zu verstehen, was gerade wirklich passiert.
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SpaceX joining the Nasdaq 100 is a bigger deal than people realize. Private company, massive valuation, now getting passive index flows. This is the kind of structural shift that changes how capital allocates to late-stage private companies. Watch how this plays out — if it works, expect more unicorns to follow this path instead of traditional IPOs.
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Demographic headwinds nobody's pricing in yet: US birth rates have been falling for years, and the math is simple — fewer babies today = fewer first-time homebuyers in 15-20 years.
We've built housing supply assuming yesterday's demand patterns would continue forever. Classic mistake. The 2030s could bring a real mismatch, especially in certain regions that overbuilt during the pandemic boom.
This isn't a crash call, it's a structural shift. Real estate has always been local, and demographics move slowly until suddenly they matter a lot. Worth watching which markets are most exposed to this trend vs. which have other tailwinds (migration, job growth, etc).
Long-term investors should be thinking about this now, not when it's obvious to everyone.
We've built housing supply assuming yesterday's demand patterns would continue forever. Classic mistake. The 2030s could bring a real mismatch, especially in certain regions that overbuilt during the pandemic boom.
This isn't a crash call, it's a structural shift. Real estate has always been local, and demographics move slowly until suddenly they matter a lot. Worth watching which markets are most exposed to this trend vs. which have other tailwinds (migration, job growth, etc).
Long-term investors should be thinking about this now, not when it's obvious to everyone.
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Russia somehow managed to lose everywhere except social media.
This cuts right to the core of something we see constantly in markets too — narrative versus reality. You can dominate the conversation, flood the zone with noise, create the appearance of strength or inevitability... and still get crushed by fundamentals.
It's the same dynamic when a stock's got a rabid fan base online but the business is hemorrhaging cash. Or when a sector narrative is everywhere but the actual earnings aren't showing up. Or when everyone's talking about some macro risk that never materializes while the real risk is sitting quietly in the corner.
Information warfare works until it doesn't. Perception management has limits. Eventually, reality reasserts itself — often violently. Markets are pretty good at this over time, even if they can be fooled in the short run.
The lesson: pay attention to what's actually happening, not just what people are saying is happening. Check the scoreboard, not the commentary. And remember that the loudest voices are often compensating for the weakest positions.
This cuts right to the core of something we see constantly in markets too — narrative versus reality. You can dominate the conversation, flood the zone with noise, create the appearance of strength or inevitability... and still get crushed by fundamentals.
It's the same dynamic when a stock's got a rabid fan base online but the business is hemorrhaging cash. Or when a sector narrative is everywhere but the actual earnings aren't showing up. Or when everyone's talking about some macro risk that never materializes while the real risk is sitting quietly in the corner.
Information warfare works until it doesn't. Perception management has limits. Eventually, reality reasserts itself — often violently. Markets are pretty good at this over time, even if they can be fooled in the short run.
The lesson: pay attention to what's actually happening, not just what people are saying is happening. Check the scoreboard, not the commentary. And remember that the loudest voices are often compensating for the weakest positions.
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New UBS wealth data puts some hard numbers on what we've been watching unfold:
• 440,000 of the world's 980,000 new millionaires last year were American — 10x more than the UK in second place
• 23.6 million U.S. adults now worth $1M+ (by far the most of any country)
• 89 of 196 new self-made billionaires globally came from the U.S.
• Average American adult wealth is now double that of Western Europe
This isn't just about tech IPOs or crypto windfalls. It's compounding equity returns, entrepreneurial risk-taking, and capital formation at scale. The gap between U.S. wealth creation and the rest of the developed world keeps widening.
Reminder: wealth concentration and wealth creation are different conversations. But if you're building a long-term portfolio, these structural advantages matter. The U.S. remains the global engine for capital appreciation — and it's not particularly close.
• 440,000 of the world's 980,000 new millionaires last year were American — 10x more than the UK in second place
• 23.6 million U.S. adults now worth $1M+ (by far the most of any country)
• 89 of 196 new self-made billionaires globally came from the U.S.
• Average American adult wealth is now double that of Western Europe
This isn't just about tech IPOs or crypto windfalls. It's compounding equity returns, entrepreneurial risk-taking, and capital formation at scale. The gap between U.S. wealth creation and the rest of the developed world keeps widening.
Reminder: wealth concentration and wealth creation are different conversations. But if you're building a long-term portfolio, these structural advantages matter. The U.S. remains the global engine for capital appreciation — and it's not particularly close.
Drei Dinge, die heute deine Zeit wert sind:
• Positionsgröße ist wichtiger, als die meisten denken. Den Einstieg richtig hinzubekommen bedeutet nichts, wenn du die Größe falsch wählst.
• Wie KI-Modelle ihre eigenen Weltbilder entwickeln — ein interessanter Beitrag über die Verhaltensmuster, die in diesen Systemen entstehen.
• Die Einführung von GLP-1-Medikamenten beschleunigt sich rasant. Die Folgewirkungen zweiter Ordnung auf die Bereiche Gesundheitswesen, Lebensmittel und Versicherungen zeichnen sich gerade erst ab.
Alle kostenlos. Schau sie dir an, wenn du 20 Minuten Zeit hast.
• Positionsgröße ist wichtiger, als die meisten denken. Den Einstieg richtig hinzubekommen bedeutet nichts, wenn du die Größe falsch wählst.
• Wie KI-Modelle ihre eigenen Weltbilder entwickeln — ein interessanter Beitrag über die Verhaltensmuster, die in diesen Systemen entstehen.
• Die Einführung von GLP-1-Medikamenten beschleunigt sich rasant. Die Folgewirkungen zweiter Ordnung auf die Bereiche Gesundheitswesen, Lebensmittel und Versicherungen zeichnen sich gerade erst ab.
Alle kostenlos. Schau sie dir an, wenn du 20 Minuten Zeit hast.
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New episode with @jeremygiffon just dropped — honestly one of the better conversations I've had in a while.
We covered a lot of ground: the strange new power dynamics between billionaires and anonymous posters, how certain philosophers quietly rewired Silicon Valley thinking, what's actually happening in private markets right now, and why the old playbook for beating the market might need an update.
Also: the billion dollar PDF, peak guy theory, and whether AI really changes the game for white-collar work.
It's the kind of conversation that makes you rethink a few assumptions. Worth your time if you care about where finance and tech are actually headed — not just where the headlines say they're going.
We covered a lot of ground: the strange new power dynamics between billionaires and anonymous posters, how certain philosophers quietly rewired Silicon Valley thinking, what's actually happening in private markets right now, and why the old playbook for beating the market might need an update.
Also: the billion dollar PDF, peak guy theory, and whether AI really changes the game for white-collar work.
It's the kind of conversation that makes you rethink a few assumptions. Worth your time if you care about where finance and tech are actually headed — not just where the headlines say they're going.
Übersetzung ansehen
Worth noting: since mid-May, the Dow is up 6% while the $SPX has barely budged at +0.5%.
That's a pretty stark divergence. Usually means one of two things: either mega-cap tech is getting hammered while old-economy industrials/value names are carrying the load, or breadth is quietly improving beneath the surface even as the index-level action looks flat.
Either way, it's a reminder that "the market" isn't monolithic. When you hear someone say "stocks are up" or "stocks are down," always ask: which stocks?
That's a pretty stark divergence. Usually means one of two things: either mega-cap tech is getting hammered while old-economy industrials/value names are carrying the load, or breadth is quietly improving beneath the surface even as the index-level action looks flat.
Either way, it's a reminder that "the market" isn't monolithic. When you hear someone say "stocks are up" or "stocks are down," always ask: which stocks?
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Monday reading list:
• The case that dividend investing as a strategy is dying
• Memory chip makers reporting — what the earnings tell us
• America's socialization deficit: why we're connecting less
Good stuff to chew on this week.
• The case that dividend investing as a strategy is dying
• Memory chip makers reporting — what the earnings tell us
• America's socialization deficit: why we're connecting less
Good stuff to chew on this week.
IVVonAlpha
MUUS-1,17%
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Three practical reads for advisors today:
• Building custom AI tools for your practice (without needing to code)
• What actually matters in private fund due diligence
• How to think about valuing a client's human capital
The human capital piece is underrated — for most clients under 50, their future earning power is their largest asset by far. Yet we spend 90% of our time optimizing the portfolio and almost none thinking systematically about career risk, disability protection, or income volatility.
Worth reading if you work with clients who still have decades of work ahead of them.
• Building custom AI tools for your practice (without needing to code)
• What actually matters in private fund due diligence
• How to think about valuing a client's human capital
The human capital piece is underrated — for most clients under 50, their future earning power is their largest asset by far. Yet we spend 90% of our time optimizing the portfolio and almost none thinking systematically about career risk, disability protection, or income volatility.
Worth reading if you work with clients who still have decades of work ahead of them.
MSUS+0,01%
SCHWUS+1,19%
JPMUS+0,27%
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Sunday reading list:
📊 Structural breaks in market behavior — when the old patterns stop working
💼 Actually measuring AI's impact on jobs (not just the hype)
🧠 Why we should pay attention to the weird outliers
Good curation from Abnormal Returns as always. The structural breaks piece is particularly relevant right now — a lot of investors are still using playbooks from the 2010s that may not apply anymore. Worth your time.
📊 Structural breaks in market behavior — when the old patterns stop working
💼 Actually measuring AI's impact on jobs (not just the hype)
🧠 Why we should pay attention to the weird outliers
Good curation from Abnormal Returns as always. The structural breaks piece is particularly relevant right now — a lot of investors are still using playbooks from the 2010s that may not apply anymore. Worth your time.
QQQETF+0,41%
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Three themes dominated the reads this week:
Cash balances hit all-time highs — investors sitting on record sideline money while markets grind higher. Classic behavior.
Perpetual futures are everywhere now. The structure's gone mainstream, which usually means we're late cycle for that trade.
AI sustainability questions heating up. Not whether AI matters (it does), but whether current valuations and capex levels make sense long-term.
The cash pile story is the most interesting to me. Usually signals either fear or confusion. Either way, it's fuel.
Cash balances hit all-time highs — investors sitting on record sideline money while markets grind higher. Classic behavior.
Perpetual futures are everywhere now. The structure's gone mainstream, which usually means we're late cycle for that trade.
AI sustainability questions heating up. Not whether AI matters (it does), but whether current valuations and capex levels make sense long-term.
The cash pile story is the most interesting to me. Usually signals either fear or confusion. Either way, it's fuel.
Übersetzung ansehen
Saturday reading list:
• Small pickups making a comeback — interesting shift in auto market preferences
• Fewer weather balloons = worse forecasts (unintended consequences)
• Deep dive on how powerful the alcohol lobby actually is
Always good stuff from Abnormal Returns. Worth your time this weekend.
• Small pickups making a comeback — interesting shift in auto market preferences
• Fewer weather balloons = worse forecasts (unintended consequences)
• Deep dive on how powerful the alcohol lobby actually is
Always good stuff from Abnormal Returns. Worth your time this weekend.
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