晨曦Bit—合约专家

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12.12
ETH
1. Macroeconomics and Capital: After the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the market has exhausted its benefits, leading to profit-taking and a pullback. However, ETH ETFs still see inflows from institutional funds, and whales continue to accumulate. The 3200 level serves as the institutional cost line, providing strong support; CFTC's tokenized collateral pilot serves as compliance endorsement, ensuring medium to long-term liquidity.
2. Technical Analysis: The daily MACD shows a golden cross but the red bars are narrowing. The 4-hour chart shows a dead cross with reduced volume, and the 1-hour chart rebounded after reaching the lower Bollinger Band. Currently, it is in the 3150-3300 oscillation range, with 3260 being the short-term bull-bear dividing line (corresponding to the SAR indicator reversal point).
3. Sentiment and Events: The long-short ratio of 1.055 indicates bullish sentiment, but the $112 million capital outflow shows short-term caution. There are no significant data releases in the afternoon, and volatility is likely limited to range-bound trading.

II. Trend Qualitative Analysis

Short-term oscillation is biased towards the strong side, with no clear unilateral trend: The resistance zone at 3270-3300 (intraday high + previous platform) is clearly restrictive, while the support zone at 3150-3175 (50-day moving average + on-chain concentrated positions) is solid. The current price is at the midpoint of the range, lacking breakthrough volume, and the afternoon is likely to maintain narrow oscillation and consolidation.

III. Practical Operational Targets (Practical Guidance + Controllable Risks)

1. Bullish Strategy: Lightly go long in the 3220-3230 range during pullbacks, with a stop loss at 3190 (below the institutional cost line), and a target of 3270-3280 (first resistance level). If the target is not reached by 17:30, actively take profit and exit.
2. Bearish Strategy: Lightly go short in the 3270-3280 range during rebounds, with a stop loss at 3300 (breaking intraday resistance), and a target of 3230-3220 (midpoint of the range)
#美联储降息 $ETH

12.11
#美联储降息 The recent market is in a state of fluctuation, after Bitcoin surged to around 94000 in the early morning and then retraced, with a pullback of over 4000 points that has not effectively continued, bullish sentiment still dominates.
From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows that the market is in a correction phase after a rise, with weak bearish momentum, and the pattern of more bullish candles than bearish ones remains unchanged. This round of retracement is a normal technical adjustment and not a trend reversal. In terms of operations, rely on support levels to build low positions.
Operation suggestion: Plan to go long near 89800-890000, with a target of 91500-92500, and if it breaks through, continue to look above 93000.

Currently, the suggestion is to focus on going long around 3195-3150, with a target of 3290-3360.
$BTC
$ETH

I am a professional in short-term trading, and I have been in a floating profit state all afternoon. Based on my posts, there should still be some profit to be made. I will share a trade every day, and everyone can follow along at any time.

12.10
#BTC走势分析 Midday Market Analysis: BTC is under pressure and bearish

The 4-hour chart shows that the current key support level for BTC at 91800 has not been effectively broken, and the price is likely to maintain a consolidation trend above this support in the short term. From the indicators, the pressure on the upper Bollinger Band has gradually become evident, with insufficient upward momentum, and it is important to be cautious of the risk of breaking the support level—once the 91800 support is lost, the bullish momentum of the MACD indicator will continue to weaken, and the fast line (DIF) is expected to cross below the signal line (DEA) forming a death cross pattern, further confirming the downward trend. Combined with previous trends, the 93400-94000 range is the daily 20-day moving average resistance area, and there is heavy selling pressure above, limiting the short-term rebound space.

Precise Operation Suggestions

- Short Position Strategy: Enter lightly around 92230 USD, or increase positions gradually in the 92500-93000 range for shorting, balancing safety and profit space;
- Profit Target: First target at 91800 USD, if broken, can extend to around 90000;
- Risk Warning: If it stabilizes above the 93400 resistance level, timely stop-loss is required. $BTC

12.10
#ETH走势分析 #美联储重启降息步伐 Ethereum shows a clear bullish trend, with four consecutive daily gains and a rebound to a high of 3397. It is currently in a short-term pullback phase. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision tonight may trigger significant price fluctuations. Xu Ting's technical analysis and point strategy:

1. Core technical indicators: The daily EMA indicator is contracting upwards, forming a bullish trend. The MACD is expanding with increased volume, and the fast and slow lines are near the zero axis, indicating strong bullish momentum. The 4-hour MACD is moving upward, with DIF and DEA spreading apart. The RSI (14) has fallen to a neutral range of 51, with no overbought pressure, and there is still potential for a rebound after the pullback. The price has previously broken through the upper Bollinger Band and is currently oscillating around 3300, with the middle band providing strong support.

2. Key levels: In terms of resistance, the first resistance level is 3380 - 3400 USD (daily high area), and the second resistance level is 3450 - 3500 USD. After breaking through, we can look towards 3520 USD or even 3600 USD. Regarding support, the first support level is 3250 - 3280 USD, and the second support level is 3170 - 3200 USD (a key position previously broken). Strong defensive support is at 3100 USD; if this is lost, the trend may weaken.

3. Trading strategy reference: Going long can be done in batches when the price pulls back to the 3250 - 3280 USD range, with a stop loss set at 3180 USD. The first target is 3380 - 3400 USD; after reaching this, partial reductions can be made. The second target aims at 3450 - 3500 USD. Going short can be considered in the 3450 - 3500 range, with defense above 3500, a stop loss of 30 - 50 points, and targets set lower at 3300 - 3350. Additionally, around 3380, partial profits can be taken on existing long positions, and remaining positions can be held with the upper band as support. If a neckline is formed at a high point and is lost, then all profits should be taken. $ETH

Personal advice: Profits and losses are at your own risk.

12.9
The overall market continues to show a fluctuating pattern. On Monday, during the U.S. stock session, the ETH daily candle formed a long candlestick with upper and lower shadows, with the lower shadow significantly longer than the upper shadow, indicating a clear bullish signal. Although the medium to long-term bullish logic remains unchanged, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window is approaching, and it is highly likely that the main players will engage in wide fluctuations and profit-taking before and after the policy implementation. One must be wary of false breakout risks at the daily level—yesterday's morning report has already indicated that a breakout with volume and a stable position above 3150 is needed to confirm the continuation of the bulls. After reaching around 3150 yesterday, the price immediately faced bearish pressure, retreating to the 3050-60 area for consolidation. Today's core battle between bulls and bears still focuses on the key range of 3150-3160. If the price can quickly break through and stabilize in this area, bullish momentum will further be released, likely testing the strong resistance level near 3500 on the daily chart. If the support at the low point of yesterday's consolidation at 3050 is not maintained, bears may accelerate the downward move, testing the lower edge of the recent fluctuating range around 2900-2930. In terms of operations, focus mainly on short positions, with low long bets as a supplement. Do not blindly chase after prices; wait for clear directional signals.

On the macro level, at 3:00 AM on December 11, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Jerome Powell's speech at 3:30 AM will be key catalysts for the short-term market, combined with expectations of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan on December 19, which may further increase market volatility. The current market is filled with uncertainties, and impulsive trading can easily become cannon fodder. Maintaining rational risk control and following the trend is essential to establish a solid footing in a fluctuating pattern.

#美联储重启降息步伐 How are Bitcoin and Ethereum doing today? - Bitcoin dropped to 89242 this morning and stabilized, now fluctuating around 91500, and Ethereum is similar, having bottomed out at 3028 and starting to climb up.

This week, the price has stayed above 90000 without dropping. From a weekly perspective, this stage seems more like brewing a short-term top; it’s not very realistic to expect a large unilateral trend, and overall it’s still swaying in a triangular oscillation range. After a continuous rise on the daily chart, it's testing the barrier near 91800 again. The selling pressure at this position is very obvious, and the momentum for upward movement is insufficient. Therefore, this rebound is actually an opportunity to set up short positions at a high.

BTC: Consider shorting in the range of 91500-92000, looking down towards 89000.

ETH: Similarly, try shorting in the range of 3150-3180, targeting 3000.

$BTC
$ETH

$SOL From the 1-hour level, after a significant retracement from 146 to around 127, it has clearly stabilized and rebounded. A MACD golden cross has appeared, and the KDJ indicator is also overlapping and turning upwards, with bulls ready to take action.

Personal suggestion, for reference only #sol板块
Around 130-125, target near 147-153

$ETH What will happen to the market next? Everyone share your thoughts #ETH走势分析 #

Today, the trend of Bitcoin shows a small upward momentum, but the实体部分相对纤细，from the 1H technical chart, the price is still at the upper side of the oscillation zone. Given the high position, it is prudent to focus on the空为主导.
Bitcoin: around 89500-90200空,补 at 90500, looking down at 88500-86500#比特币波动性 $BTC

12.6
The recent K-line structure of ETH, after touching the bottom at 2978, has shown a low-level sideways oscillation pattern with small bearish and bullish candles, without significant bullish breakthroughs, indicating that the strength of the bullish counterattack is very weak. This is a weak consolidation after a decline, rather than a trend reversal; the current price at 3037 shows a decline of 4.16%. The price is below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, with the upper track trending down and the lower track flattening. The short-term bearish trend dominates, only showing a weak stabilization state after overselling.

The KDJ indicator's J-line is approaching the overbought zone, the K/D lines have a golden cross upwards, but the J-line is about to turn, indicating that the short-term rebound momentum is nearing exhaustion, with a risk of pullback. The MACD histogram is negative and close to the zero axis, with the DIF and DEA nearly glued together, showing that the long and short forces are temporarily in a stalemate. The bearish trend has not fundamentally reversed, and the rebound lacks sustained support.

The short-term 1-hour cycle shows characteristics of oversold weak rebound + bearish dominance, with the rebound significantly suppressed by the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. The KDJ is about to enter the overbought zone, also indicating limited rebound space. If it cannot effectively break through the pressure level, it is highly likely to return to the downtrend. In the short term, it is recommended to pull back to the vicinity of 3010--2970, allowing for light position accumulation, with targets looking towards 3055--3080.

Personal advice, for reference only, specific discussions can be made privately in the chat room.

Following the continuous departure of thoughts

#数字货币超话 This morning's dip hit 90822, and the bulls immediately swept in at that level, pulling the price back above 92200 in seconds. This operation basically confirms one thing: the area from 90800 to 91000 is currently the iron bottom. Every time there is a probing dip, the buying pressure is extremely strong, and it simply cannot be pushed down.

From the hourly trend perspective, $BTC BTC has already re-established itself above the short-term moving average, and the trading volume during the rebound has also been solid, not the kind of emotional retail trader rush, but more like planned funds entering in batches. If it can hold the 91800-92000 level, the probability of pushing towards 92800 or even 93000 is quite high.

To put it simply, that dip this morning not only didn't damage the structure but actually tested the strength of the support below. Now it's in a typical state of oscillating upwards; as long as it can hold the 92000 level, market sentiment will still lean towards going long.

Operational thoughts

$BTC : Consider entering long positions in the 91500-91800 range, with an initial target of 93500.

$ETH : Around 3100-3120, you can arrange for long positions, with a target set at 3200.

The afternoon orders can leave first

Brothers short a wave $SOL

12.3
Market Price Real-Time Order
earound eth3090-3080 Long
Take Profit 3128-3160-3190
Add Position 3055
Stop Loss 3040
Personal Real Trading, Profit and Loss at Own Risk
$ETH

11.26 Midday ETH Analysis
From the 4-hour chart, the short-term direction of the market is clearly bearish, and no clear signs of a bottom have been observed. The medium-term moving average support has been effectively broken, combined with the MACD forming a death cross below the zero axis, establishing a bearish pattern. If there is a short-term rebound, it should be viewed as an opportunity to short in line with the trend.
Operation suggestion near 2960-3000, target 2900-2850
$ETH

Since the price of the currency touched the strong support below yesterday afternoon, the price has continuously shown a robust rebound. The price has once again stabilized above 90,000; however, the bulls have been severely suppressed recently, leading to the rebound on the market not forming a strong counterattack. In the early hours of today, the price once again followed the previous trend to initiate a pullback. Currently, the price is running near 90,000 again, and the pullback trend has not completely ended. This week's overall price movement has not shown a significant change in the downward pullback and oscillation. The shared real trading strategy remains as precise as ever online. Also, starting tonight, our live broadcast rhythm will be reopened, during which we will periodically provide various benefits to everyone.
Looking at the four-hour chart of Bitcoin, after the price continuously broke down previous lows, it did provide a certain degree of rebound repair. However, from the current market perspective, the price does not have the momentum to break the mid-track limit. After a series of bullish rebounds and repairs, it quickly produced a series of bearish candles that engulfed all the previous repair space. The current market liquidity continues to decrease, so unless there is significant positive news to stimulate the market, the larger trend remains a stable downward structure. From the short-term hourly chart, the price broke upward through the upper track pressure after a series of bullish candles but then quickly dropped back down to near the lower track, forming a brief oversold condition before the market provided some rebound repair again. From the current rhythm, the price rebound is not a trend change but rather a technical repair after a significant pullback. The continuous downward movement of the Bollinger Bands also opens a channel for further continuation of the current downward price. The short-term outlook remains bearish, focusing on the significant rebound repair triggered by the evening's U.S. stock market trends, with a short bearish strategy involved.
Short on Bitcoin near 91,400, watch near 90,000; short on Ethereum near 3,070, watch near 2,950.
#加密市场观察

11.19
The recent rebound of the second pancake caught everyone off guard! After holding steady at 2940 yesterday, Ethereum surged directly to around 3170, easily breaking the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, with nearly 200 points of profit secured!

With the upper band on the 4-hour chart and the middle line on the daily chart both providing dual resistance, breaking through all at once will not be easy.
The MACD golden cross continues to maintain momentum, but the KDJ is showing overbought warnings, so we must be cautious of the risk of a pullback!

Operation suggestion: Buy on the dip around 3000-3050, targeting 3150-3250! $ETH