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新手解答｜最专业的手续费减免服务｜公众号：加密糖糖｜推特X：@BTCtangtang｜手续费是交易最大的支出，不要小看了每笔手续费。
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The newly launched chat room feature is particularly powerful, and the ecosystem is becoming increasingly better.
"You said the price of gold jewelry has risen to 1600 per gram, I don't have a concept of that, but when you said I can't earn two grams of gold in a month of work, I cried🥲"
I surrender, I have already invested fully in gold and silver, all because of my disgusting jealousy and humble pride. Seeing gold and silver rise every day, reaching new highs, while I hit new lows every day. I have completely given up. Every time I see the candlestick chart for gold and silver, I break out in a cold sweat, feeling chills all over my body; my depression instantly flares up, and life seems to have lost its color, like a Saiyan caught by the tail, a user with the power of sea stone, extracting tailed beasts, like an Ultraman who has lost his light. But there is an old Chinese saying: those who know how to adapt to the times are heroes, and it’s not too late for a prodigal to return. I'm sorry, family, I have become a traitor; I just can't hold on in cryptocurrency anymore.
Bitcoin Stands at a Crossroads: When 'Digital Gold' Puts on Wall Street's Formal Attire
In the past, Bitcoin surged with the narrative of 'digital gold', championing the ideals of combating inflation and decentralization. However, when the price of gold broke historical highs, Bitcoin fell into silence.
1. Transfer of Pricing Power: From the Wild West to the Wall Street System
The development of Bitcoin has entered the 'second half', and the rules of the game have completely changed. With the approval of spot ETFs, major institutions entering the scene, and the strategic attention of the U.S. government, Bitcoin has been forced to don Wall Street's 'formal attire'. Early holders are gradually exiting, mainstream financial institutions are making significant purchases, and Bitcoin is transitioning from a 'growth asset' with rebellious characteristics to a 'financial asset' that is being allocated by mainstream investors.
1. Transfer of Pricing Power: From the Wild West to the Wall Street System
The development of Bitcoin has entered the 'second half', and the rules of the game have completely changed. With the approval of spot ETFs, major institutions entering the scene, and the strategic attention of the U.S. government, Bitcoin has been forced to don Wall Street's 'formal attire'. Early holders are gradually exiting, mainstream financial institutions are making significant purchases, and Bitcoin is transitioning from a 'growth asset' with rebellious characteristics to a 'financial asset' that is being allocated by mainstream investors.
Retail investors are indeed quietly 'reallocating', but saying they are 'abandoning' Bitcoin might be too dramatic.
First, let's look at two sets of data:
In the past month, the world's largest gold ETF (GLD) saw a net inflow of $5.03 billion, while the silver ETF (SLV) reached a three-month high in holdings.
During the same period, Bitcoin futures open interest decreased by 17%, and crypto funds experienced an outflow of $490 million in a single week (CoinShares report).
This doesn't seem like a sudden 'defection', but rather a long-prepared 'migration'.
1. When 'digital gold' encounters real gold: the mirror of interest rates.
Each time the Federal Reserve raises rates, the rules of the market change.
Bitcoin (smirking while holding its chest): 'I am now a 'high-risk growth asset', and as soon as rates rise, my valuation model gets a cold.'
In the past month, the world's largest gold ETF (GLD) saw a net inflow of $5.03 billion, while the silver ETF (SLV) reached a three-month high in holdings.
During the same period, Bitcoin futures open interest decreased by 17%, and crypto funds experienced an outflow of $490 million in a single week (CoinShares report).
This doesn't seem like a sudden 'defection', but rather a long-prepared 'migration'.
1. When 'digital gold' encounters real gold: the mirror of interest rates.
Each time the Federal Reserve raises rates, the rules of the market change.
Bitcoin (smirking while holding its chest): 'I am now a 'high-risk growth asset', and as soon as rates rise, my valuation model gets a cold.'
Gold rises, memory prices rise, why is Bitcoin falling alone? Market funds are facing a 'triple choice'
1. Gold and silver are rising: traditional safe-haven and monetary attributes
Core driving forces: geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, concerns about confidence in the dollar.
Safe-haven demand: When global situations are turbulent (such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts), investors tend to purchase gold, historically recognized as the 'ultimate safe-haven asset', to preserve value.
Anti-inflation and de-dollarization: Market concerns about long-term inflation in major economies (especially the United States) remain, and gold is viewed as a tool to hedge against the depreciation of fiat currency. At the same time, multiple central banks (such as China and India) continue to increase their gold holdings, reducing dollar reserves, and this behavior itself supports gold prices and conveys signals of insufficient confidence in the traditional monetary system.
Core driving forces: geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, concerns about confidence in the dollar.
Safe-haven demand: When global situations are turbulent (such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts), investors tend to purchase gold, historically recognized as the 'ultimate safe-haven asset', to preserve value.
Anti-inflation and de-dollarization: Market concerns about long-term inflation in major economies (especially the United States) remain, and gold is viewed as a tool to hedge against the depreciation of fiat currency. At the same time, multiple central banks (such as China and India) continue to increase their gold holdings, reducing dollar reserves, and this behavior itself supports gold prices and conveys signals of insufficient confidence in the traditional monetary system.
Can this be agreed upon? 30w a month
The cyclical framework remains effective, but the core is elevating
#达沃斯世界经济论坛2026
My core viewpoint is: the four-year cycle logic of Bitcoin—driven by deterministic supply shocks influencing long-term price trends—remains robustly valid. However, the manifestation, amplitude, and duration of this cycle will be profoundly reshaped by the structural change of ETFs.
1. The old narrative is not dead; the new narrative is established
The halving supply effect has not disappeared; rather, it has become sharper under the massive demand of ETFs. The foundation of the cycle shifts from 'retail sentiment cycles' to 'institutional allocation cycles.' Wall Street's quarterly reports, government bond yield comparisons, and inflation data will become key indicators for analyzing the phases of the cycle, alongside hash rates and wallet addresses.
2. Volatility transformation, non-cyclical elimination
Volatility will not disappear, but its origins may shift from 'internal sell-offs' to 'external macro factors.' As Bitcoin becomes part of institutional asset portfolios, it will correlate more closely with US stock market liquidity, interest rate expectations, and the US dollar index. The recent increase in correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks reflects this point. The peaks and troughs of the cycle will be increasingly determined by global macroeconomic tides.
3. Possible evolution paths
Path One (Optimistic Integration): The supply contraction effect of halving, coupled with the demand effect from continuous ETF inflows, creates a 'resonance' that could push prices to break previous highs in the second half of 2024 to 2025, but the upward process may become more 'stair-step' as driven by institutions rather than the previous 'parabolic' style.
Path Two (Macro-Dominated): If the world enters a severe economic recession or liquidity crisis, all risk assets will face sell-offs. Although Bitcoin has hedging properties, it may still struggle to stand alone in the short term. This could prolong the bottoming or adjustment period of this cycle but will not destroy its long-term logic.
Path Three (Structural Bull Market): ETF inflows become a long-term norm, gradually absorbing all miner outputs and part of the existing selling pressure. The market may enter a 'structural bull market' characterized by reduced volatility and a slow upward shift in the price center, fundamentally changing the previous extreme cycle pattern of 'sharp rises and sharp falls.'
#达沃斯世界经济论坛2026
My core viewpoint is: the four-year cycle logic of Bitcoin—driven by deterministic supply shocks influencing long-term price trends—remains robustly valid. However, the manifestation, amplitude, and duration of this cycle will be profoundly reshaped by the structural change of ETFs.
1. The old narrative is not dead; the new narrative is established
The halving supply effect has not disappeared; rather, it has become sharper under the massive demand of ETFs. The foundation of the cycle shifts from 'retail sentiment cycles' to 'institutional allocation cycles.' Wall Street's quarterly reports, government bond yield comparisons, and inflation data will become key indicators for analyzing the phases of the cycle, alongside hash rates and wallet addresses.
2. Volatility transformation, non-cyclical elimination
Volatility will not disappear, but its origins may shift from 'internal sell-offs' to 'external macro factors.' As Bitcoin becomes part of institutional asset portfolios, it will correlate more closely with US stock market liquidity, interest rate expectations, and the US dollar index. The recent increase in correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks reflects this point. The peaks and troughs of the cycle will be increasingly determined by global macroeconomic tides.
3. Possible evolution paths
Path One (Optimistic Integration): The supply contraction effect of halving, coupled with the demand effect from continuous ETF inflows, creates a 'resonance' that could push prices to break previous highs in the second half of 2024 to 2025, but the upward process may become more 'stair-step' as driven by institutions rather than the previous 'parabolic' style.
Path Two (Macro-Dominated): If the world enters a severe economic recession or liquidity crisis, all risk assets will face sell-offs. Although Bitcoin has hedging properties, it may still struggle to stand alone in the short term. This could prolong the bottoming or adjustment period of this cycle but will not destroy its long-term logic.
Path Three (Structural Bull Market): ETF inflows become a long-term norm, gradually absorbing all miner outputs and part of the existing selling pressure. The market may enter a 'structural bull market' characterized by reduced volatility and a slow upward shift in the price center, fundamentally changing the previous extreme cycle pattern of 'sharp rises and sharp falls.'
Teachers, it was wrong, really wrong...
I will never go against the trend again.
I will never go against the trend again.
It's really a bit frustrating to encounter this situation. It clearly should be profitable, yet after calculations, there's still a loss like this.
Let's analyze the detailed reasons.
Opening price 95564.8, position holds 1.567 BTC, position value 149750.
Closing price 95550.1, position holds 1.567 BTC, closing value 149727.
The profit from shorting is equivalent to 23.
In addition to profit and loss, there is also an expense, which is the handling fee.
The position value at opening is 149750, with a market order fee rate of 0.05%, the unilateral handling fee is 74.87, and combined for opening and closing it amounts to 149.74. Subtracting the profit of 23 results in an actual loss of 126.7.
It hurts, buddy 😅
Let's analyze the detailed reasons.
Opening price 95564.8, position holds 1.567 BTC, position value 149750.
Closing price 95550.1, position holds 1.567 BTC, closing value 149727.
The profit from shorting is equivalent to 23.
In addition to profit and loss, there is also an expense, which is the handling fee.
The position value at opening is 149750, with a market order fee rate of 0.05%, the unilateral handling fee is 74.87, and combined for opening and closing it amounts to 149.74. Subtracting the profit of 23 results in an actual loss of 126.7.
It hurts, buddy 😅
What the hell is this, why am I still losing 125.7u?
What are some common fatal mistakes beginners make? What is the core mindset of professional investors? How to become a master trader?
Beginners: * **Eagerness to test the waters with short-term gains:** Entering the market with a focus on short-term profits leads to short-sightedness and missed long-term opportunities.
* **Full-time trading with insufficient capital:** Relying solely on trading as a source of income without stable other sources of revenue can easily lead to an unbalanced mindset and overtrading.
* **Trading without preparation, relying on intuition:** Lacking a systematic understanding of the market, relying on news, feelings, or others' opinions results in frequent and disorderly trading.
* **Overemphasis on win rate and relative returns:** Pursuing high win rates and high percentage returns while ignoring the importance of the risk-reward ratio and absolute returns.
* **Lack of patience and strategy:** Unwilling to wait for the optimal opportunity, preferring prediction and guesswork, lacking a mature trading system and risk control principles.
Professionals:** * **Wait like a hunter:** Not acting rashly, only acting when conditions are perfectly met and the odds of winning are extremely high, pursuing "winning is easier than winning."
* **Prioritizing risk-reward ratio, not win rate:** Accepting the possibility of small losses, pursuing opportunities for large profits, and focusing on the risk-reward ratio.
**Professionals:** * **Wait like a hunter:** Not acting rashly, only acting when conditions are fully met and the odds of winning are extremely high, pursuing "winning is easier than winning."
**Prioritizing risk-reward ratio, not win rate:** Accepting the possibility of small losses, pursuing opportunities for large profits, and focusing on the risk-reward ratio. Sustained cash flow or capital security: Ensure you can calmly wait even when the market is unfavorable, avoiding forced trading, through other income, dividends, bond interest, etc.
Systematic research and deduction: Establish your own trading logic and strategies, make assumptions and deductions about the market, set premises and bottom lines, and execute according to plan.
Objectivity and neutrality, let the data speak: Rely on models, data, and facts to make decisions, unaffected by emotions or the opinions of others.
Mastering the art of trading:
Maintaining objectivity and neutrality: Don't let emotions interfere with judgment; base everything on data and facts.
Calculating the risk-reward ratio: Assess the potential risks and rewards of each trade, only making trades with high winning potential.
Conducting market analysis: Anticipate both ideal and worst-case scenarios and develop corresponding strategies.
Patiently waiting for opportunities: Like a hunter stockpiling ammunition, strike only at the optimal moment, aiming for a decisive blow.
Long-term adherence to the system: Repeat the above process, always maintaining discipline, forming a virtuous cycle of continuous profitability.
Investing is not about feelings and luck, but about strategy, waiting, and execution. #比特币2026年价格预测
Beginners: * **Eagerness to test the waters with short-term gains:** Entering the market with a focus on short-term profits leads to short-sightedness and missed long-term opportunities.
* **Full-time trading with insufficient capital:** Relying solely on trading as a source of income without stable other sources of revenue can easily lead to an unbalanced mindset and overtrading.
* **Trading without preparation, relying on intuition:** Lacking a systematic understanding of the market, relying on news, feelings, or others' opinions results in frequent and disorderly trading.
* **Overemphasis on win rate and relative returns:** Pursuing high win rates and high percentage returns while ignoring the importance of the risk-reward ratio and absolute returns.
* **Lack of patience and strategy:** Unwilling to wait for the optimal opportunity, preferring prediction and guesswork, lacking a mature trading system and risk control principles.
Professionals:** * **Wait like a hunter:** Not acting rashly, only acting when conditions are perfectly met and the odds of winning are extremely high, pursuing "winning is easier than winning."
* **Prioritizing risk-reward ratio, not win rate:** Accepting the possibility of small losses, pursuing opportunities for large profits, and focusing on the risk-reward ratio.
**Professionals:** * **Wait like a hunter:** Not acting rashly, only acting when conditions are fully met and the odds of winning are extremely high, pursuing "winning is easier than winning."
**Prioritizing risk-reward ratio, not win rate:** Accepting the possibility of small losses, pursuing opportunities for large profits, and focusing on the risk-reward ratio. Sustained cash flow or capital security: Ensure you can calmly wait even when the market is unfavorable, avoiding forced trading, through other income, dividends, bond interest, etc.
Systematic research and deduction: Establish your own trading logic and strategies, make assumptions and deductions about the market, set premises and bottom lines, and execute according to plan.
Objectivity and neutrality, let the data speak: Rely on models, data, and facts to make decisions, unaffected by emotions or the opinions of others.
Mastering the art of trading:
Maintaining objectivity and neutrality: Don't let emotions interfere with judgment; base everything on data and facts.
Calculating the risk-reward ratio: Assess the potential risks and rewards of each trade, only making trades with high winning potential.
Conducting market analysis: Anticipate both ideal and worst-case scenarios and develop corresponding strategies.
Patiently waiting for opportunities: Like a hunter stockpiling ammunition, strike only at the optimal moment, aiming for a decisive blow.
Long-term adherence to the system: Repeat the above process, always maintaining discipline, forming a virtuous cycle of continuous profitability.
Investing is not about feelings and luck, but about strategy, waiting, and execution. #比特币2026年价格预测
There's not much market action this weekend, come over Sei Niu Pi
[Replay] 🎙️ 周末市场小幅震荡，后市如何看
02 h 06 m 19 s · listens
🎙️ 周末市场小幅震荡，后市如何看
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🎙️ ETH的机会在哪里
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In 2025, the classic four-year cycle of Bitcoin clearly lost its momentum, and the altcoin market has nearly disappeared. To them, this is not a short-term adjustment, but a fundamental shift in market structure.
To truly heat up the crypto market in 2026, at least one of the following three things must happen:
1. ETFs and institutional treasuries need to 'look outward'
Currently, spot BTC/ETH ETFs in the U.S. are concentrating liquidity into just a few major coins, making the market appear extremely narrow with severe divergence in performance. Unless institutions are willing to include more coin types in their portfolios through ETFs or corporate treasuries, overall market participation and liquidity won't be able to revitalize.
2. Top-tier assets need to lead another strong rally
The traditional pattern of 'Bitcoin rises first, then funds flow into altcoins' has largely broken down in 2025. Altcoin average uptrends now last only around 20 days (previously up to 60 days), and many coins can't rise due to continuous token unlock pressures. Only if BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, and other major players rally strongly again—generating profitable momentum—can funds gradually spill over and reignite the altcoin market.
3. Retail investors' enthusiasm must return
Retail investors aren't necessarily out of the game, but their attention has shifted elsewhere—such as dollar-cost averaging into U.S. stocks, chasing AI, robotics, quantum computing, and other high-growth themes. The painful memories of the 2022–2023 crash, bankruptcies, and margin calls still linger, and with the crypto market underperforming traditional equities in 2025, many feel the 'crypto wealth explosion' appeal is no longer as strong. Only when retail investors return in large numbers can the market regain its familiar feverish energy.
What do you think? Which of these points do you believe is most likely to happen?
To truly heat up the crypto market in 2026, at least one of the following three things must happen:
1. ETFs and institutional treasuries need to 'look outward'
Currently, spot BTC/ETH ETFs in the U.S. are concentrating liquidity into just a few major coins, making the market appear extremely narrow with severe divergence in performance. Unless institutions are willing to include more coin types in their portfolios through ETFs or corporate treasuries, overall market participation and liquidity won't be able to revitalize.
2. Top-tier assets need to lead another strong rally
The traditional pattern of 'Bitcoin rises first, then funds flow into altcoins' has largely broken down in 2025. Altcoin average uptrends now last only around 20 days (previously up to 60 days), and many coins can't rise due to continuous token unlock pressures. Only if BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, and other major players rally strongly again—generating profitable momentum—can funds gradually spill over and reignite the altcoin market.
3. Retail investors' enthusiasm must return
Retail investors aren't necessarily out of the game, but their attention has shifted elsewhere—such as dollar-cost averaging into U.S. stocks, chasing AI, robotics, quantum computing, and other high-growth themes. The painful memories of the 2022–2023 crash, bankruptcies, and margin calls still linger, and with the crypto market underperforming traditional equities in 2025, many feel the 'crypto wealth explosion' appeal is no longer as strong. Only when retail investors return in large numbers can the market regain its familiar feverish energy.
What do you think? Which of these points do you believe is most likely to happen?
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