Twin Tulips

Has the worst in the crypto market already passed, or is it still ahead?
Looking at market positioning, risk assets have kicked off 2026 with some momentum, showing a noticeable uptick. Still, it may be too early, or too optimistic, to call this the start of a trend reversal just yet.
At the center of the action is Strategy [MSTR]. Technically, MSTR has started the New Year with a 3.43% rally, with Bitcoin [BTC] gains clearly feeding into its stock price. That said, it’s still far from smooth sailing.
So far, what’s behind MSTR is a multi-billion-dollar Q4 loss.
Basically, the company is expected to report a massive hit after Bitcoin’s 24% drop wiped out a $2.8 billion profit from Q3. Shares fell 48% in 2025 and are 70% below their November 2024 peak, fueling growing concerns.
As a result, analysts are projecting full-year operating results between a $7 billion loss and a $9.5 billion profit. However, with Bitcoin ending the year near $87,600, the numbers are likely to land toward the lower end.
In short, skepticism around MSTR’s Bitcoin model is back in full force. Now, as the company braces for a massive Q4 loss, the big question is: Could this spark Bitcoin’s first major flash crash of early 2026?
MSTR’s multi-billion losses signal flash crash risk
Flashback to the October crash, it wasn’t random. 
Instead, smart money strategically exited ahead of MSCI’s announcement about MSTR potentially being excluded from the index, given its Bitcoin-heavy treasury holding of over 671k BTC.
Now, with Q4 performance in the books, another shakeup can’t be ruled out. In fact, as the chart below shows, Strategy shares have just posted their first six-month losing streak since adopting a Bitcoin strategy in 2020.

Taken together, that adds up to a whopping 134% loss.
Consequently, MSTR’s technical weakness is now showing on paper, with its Q4 report expected to highlight these massive losses and, in turn, raise questions about the sustainability of its Bitcoin model.
Looking ahead, a market frenzy is likely around the report. Moreover, with caution still in place, and BTC down roughly 25% from pre-October crash highs, another flash crash remains very much on the table.
Final Thoughts
Multi-billion-dollar Q4 loss and technical weakness raise doubts about the sustainability of MSTR’s Bitcoin-heavy model. With BTC down 25% from pre-October highs and market caution still intact, another early-2026 flash crash remains a possibility.

For nearly half a decade, XRP was a token defined more by its presence in a Manhattan courtroom than its utility on the ledger.
However, the dawn of 2026 has brought a definitive end to that era.
By flipping Binance Coin [BNB] to secure the spot as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency, XRP has signaled a new wave in the crypto space.
What could be behind this flip?
The primary engine behind XRP’s recent decoupling from the broader altcoin market is a sustained surge in institutional appetite.
According to the latest data from SoSoValue, Ripple [XRP] spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $13.6 million in just 24 hours.
This single-day boost has pushed the cumulative total net inflow to a staggering $1.18 billion, with total net assets now valued at $1.37 billion.
While XRP’s numbers are impressive, they are part of a broader institutional renaissance across the sector.
On the same day, Bitcoin [BTC] ETFs saw $471 million in fresh capital, as per Farside Investors.
Meanwhile, Ethereum [ETH] ETF products recorded$174 million in inflows.
However, XRP’s growth is arguably more significant in relative terms.
While Bitcoin and Ethereum are established giants, XRP’s move represents a fundamental shifting of the guard, as it effectively drains liquidity and attention away from long-standing competitors.
Technical breakdown
Needless to say, this flood of capital has had an immediate impact on price action. Over the last 24 hours, XRP’s price surged by 3.84%, reaching a milestone of $2.07.
Unlike previous hype rallies, strong technical health has backed the current ascent.
RSI, at the time of reporting, was standing firmly in the bull zone above neutral levels, indicating strong buying momentum without yet hitting overbought territory.
Whereas the MACD line has crossed decisively above the signal line, a classic bullish crossover that often precedes sustained upward trends.

While XRP celebrated a nearly 4% gain, BNB faced a different reality. The altcoin was trading at $884.88, marking a 1.48% drop in the same 24-hour window.
What’s more?
While the price of XRP has stabilized just below the psychological $2 mark, on-chain data suggests a massive structural tightening is occurring behind the scenes.
According to Glassnode, XRP balances on centralized exchanges have plummeted to approximately 1.6 billion tokens, their lowest levels since 2018.
This represents a staggering 57% decline from the peaks seen in late 2025.
But if demand continues to accelerate through ETF speculation and the expansion of the Ripple payments ecosystem, XRP may be standing at its most significant inflection point in nearly a decade.

Final Thoughts
The flipping of BNB marks a psychological and strategic milestone, showing a clear investor preference for regulated, ETF-backed assets.Technical indicators support continuation, with RSI, MACD, and price structure aligning with sustained bullish momentum.

Spot XRP ETFs in the U.S. saw $48 million in inflows, pushing cumulative inflows past $1 billion since their November launch.
What to know:
XRP surged to nearly $2.40, driven by heavy institutional trading and a shrinking supply on exchanges.Spot XRP ETFs in the U.S. saw $48 million in inflows, pushing cumulative inflows past $1 billion since their November launch.The rally is supported by a shift in market sentiment due to a more favorable U.S. regulatory environment and recent SEC changes.XRP jumped to nearly $2.40 on Tuesday, extending its early-2026 rally as traders pointed to heavy institutional volumes and a tightening pool of tokens available on exchanges.The token rose as much as 11% over 24 hours to around $2.38, breaking through a resistance band that had capped gains for weeks. The move came on one of XRP’s strongest volume bursts since mid-December.One reason is flow. Spot XRP ETFs in the U.S. posted $48 million in inflows on Monday, extending a green streak for the products, which have not seen a single day of outflows since their Nov. 13 launch.Several of the products posted their largest single-day trading volumes on Monday, pushing cumulative inflows beyond the $1 billion mark in less than two months.On chain shows XRP held on exchanges has dropped to multi-year lows, a sign that fewer tokens are sitting idle and ready to be sold into rallies. Traders often read that as a setup where even modest demand can move the price faster than usual.The rally also builds on a shift in general market sentiment that started late last week.XRP, which spent years trading under a cloud of legal uncertainty, has been one of the clearest beneficiaries of that change in mood.For now, the move is also feeding on itself. Breakouts through well-watched levels tend to trigger follow-through buying from traders who were waiting for confirmation, especially in a market where bitcoin is steady and speculative attention is rotating toward large-cap alts.The key question is whether XRP can hold above the former resistance zone around $2.28 to $2.32. If it does, the market may start looking higher rather than treating the rally as another quick spike.

If you have ever been confused by patterns flashing on crypto charts, this crash course on candlesticks will help clear a few things up.
Anatomy of a candlestick
A candlestick represents the price activity of an asset during a specified timeframe through the use of four main components: the open, close, high and low.
The "open" of a candlestick represents the price of an asset when the trading period begins whereas the "close" represents the price when the period has concluded. The "high" and the "low" represent the highest and lowest prices achieved during the same trading session.
Every candlestick uses two physical features to display the four main components.
The first feature, known as the body, is the wide midsection of the candlestick and it depicts the open and close during the observation period (most charts will allow you to set the range for the candlesticks)The close is represented at the top of the body in the green candlestick and at the bottom of the body in the red candle.On the opposite is true of the open, which forms the bottom of the green candlestick and the top of the red candlestick.The final two components, the high and low, are represented in the second feature of the candlestick known as the 'wick.' Wicks are simply displayed as the thin lines extended above and below the body.Cryptocurrency traders tend to take advantage of the inherent market volatility by using charts on the intra-day time frames. Each candlestick typically represents one, two, four or 12 hours. (A longer-term trader will likely choose to observe candlesticks that represent a single day, week or month.)A candlestick becomes "bullish," typically green, when the current or closing price rises above its opening price. The candlestick becomes "bearish," typically red, when its current or closing price falls below the opening price.The money makersA candlestick rarely keeps its figure for too long in the volatile cryptocurrency market.For instance, if the 2-hour candlestick opens at a price of $10 and jumps to $13 an hour later, the shape of the candlestick will have drastically changed since opening.But traders have also come to realize the same candlestick shapes occur at the same stage of a price trend, no matter what is being traded. It can be very lucrative to identify such formations because they can expose clues as to when a trend might reverse, continue or when market indecision is at its peak.Three of the most useful candlesticks for identifying a potential trend change or for gauging market sentiment are the "doji," "hammer" and "shooting star."The doji is a prime example of what traders mean when they say a candlestick represents human emotion or market sentiment. When the asset price swings in both directions before closing near its opening price, it is clear the market is indecisive about the asset's true value.The classic doji candle representing an indecisive market comprises equal-length wicks and a very thin, centrally located body. Further, there are several variations of doji, which signal trend exhaustion/trend reversal.A hammer is the precursor to a potential downtrend reversal and can be a big money maker for the bulls.Hammers are formed when price sinks below the open only to later return and then close above the open. Such price action signifies that at one point during the trading period sellers temporarily gained control but quickly gave it back and then some, for a bullish close to the candlestick.The physical features of a hammer consist of only one wick roughly two times the length of the body which is located at the top of the candle.Last but not least, the shooting star is the exact opposite of the hammer.The shooting star occurs at the peak of an uptrend when the bulls rally to start the trading period, but eventually lose control to the bears who drag prices to a close below the open.It's important to keep in mind that the longer the duration of the candlestick, the more powerful its effect is on the overarching trend.For instance, a hammer spotted in a one-hour candlestick will have almost no impact on a 6-month long downtrend, whereas if the hammer formed on a 1-week long candlestick, its reversal impact would be much more significant.