mazen973
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ماذا يمكن أن يحدث للسوق إذا عاد ساتوشي ناكاموتو؟
بشكل واقعي، من المرجّـح أن يكون التحويل خطأً، أو تبرعًا عشوائيًا لمُنشئ بيتكوين، أو حتى عملية حرق.
لكن لنتخيّل أن ساتوشي ناكاموتو يؤكد بطريقةٍ ما عودته غدًا بعد 15 عامًا من الصمت.
عندها، من المؤكد أن سوق الكريبتو سيصاب بـالجنون.
نحن نتحدث عن بيعٍ هلعي فوري وهبوطٍ سعري عنيف، مع ذعر المتداولين بشأن ما إذا كان ساتوشي على وشك تصريف ثروة ضخمة، أو ما إذا كانت هذه إشارة إلى فقدان الثقة في ابتكاره نفسه.
حتى مجرد الشائعات حول تحرّك تلك العملات الخاملة تسببت سابقًا في هبوط الأسعار. أما عودة فعلية فستكون فوضى بمستوى “نووي”.
بشكل واقعي، من المرجّـح أن يكون التحويل خطأً، أو تبرعًا عشوائيًا لمُنشئ بيتكوين، أو حتى عملية حرق.
لكن لنتخيّل أن ساتوشي ناكاموتو يؤكد بطريقةٍ ما عودته غدًا بعد 15 عامًا من الصمت.
عندها، من المؤكد أن سوق الكريبتو سيصاب بـالجنون.
نحن نتحدث عن بيعٍ هلعي فوري وهبوطٍ سعري عنيف، مع ذعر المتداولين بشأن ما إذا كان ساتوشي على وشك تصريف ثروة ضخمة، أو ما إذا كانت هذه إشارة إلى فقدان الثقة في ابتكاره نفسه.
حتى مجرد الشائعات حول تحرّك تلك العملات الخاملة تسببت سابقًا في هبوط الأسعار. أما عودة فعلية فستكون فوضى بمستوى “نووي”.
The Satoshi wallet has just received new Bitcoin out of the blue, putting traders on edge — and Bitcoin price predictions face a new puzzle.
A sudden transfer to a wallet linked to Satoshi Nakamoto has sparked a wave of speculation in the crypto world, briefly shaking confidence in the current Bitcoin bull run.
Without any warning, a random wallet sent 2.56 BTC worth over $176,000 to one of the most iconic addresses in Bitcoin history.
This move immediately ignited theories that Satoshi may still be alive, and perhaps is preparing to move — or even sell — part of his massive Bitcoin stash.
Although the market did not crash, the timing of the transaction cast a shadow over bullish Bitcoin predictions, highlighting how quickly sentiment can change when a "legendary" wallet moves.
It may not mean anything, but when it comes to Satoshi, even the smallest movement can carry significant weight.
Source: Arkham The wallet that executed the transaction — which only holds 14.56 BTC — was funded from the Binance Hot Wallet.
So… is Satoshi back?
A sudden transfer to a wallet linked to Satoshi Nakamoto has sparked a wave of speculation in the crypto world, briefly shaking confidence in the current Bitcoin bull run.
Without any warning, a random wallet sent 2.56 BTC worth over $176,000 to one of the most iconic addresses in Bitcoin history.
This move immediately ignited theories that Satoshi may still be alive, and perhaps is preparing to move — or even sell — part of his massive Bitcoin stash.
Although the market did not crash, the timing of the transaction cast a shadow over bullish Bitcoin predictions, highlighting how quickly sentiment can change when a "legendary" wallet moves.
It may not mean anything, but when it comes to Satoshi, even the smallest movement can carry significant weight.
Source: Arkham The wallet that executed the transaction — which only holds 14.56 BTC — was funded from the Binance Hot Wallet.
So… is Satoshi back?
Cryptocurrency prices fell during trading on Tuesday, amid ongoing pressure on the digital currency market and a decline in risk appetite among investors, with Bitcoin trading below $70,000, as it failed once again to hold on to recent gains after recovering from its recent lows near $60,000.
The largest cryptocurrency in the world fell by 2.2% to $69,392.7, amid cautious trading ahead of the release of key U.S. jobs and inflation data.
Bitcoin traded in a narrow price range during recent sessions, between $68,000 and $72,000, following a highly volatile week that saw strong selling pressures in the digital currency market.
The largest cryptocurrency in the world had fallen last week to nearly $60,000, its lowest level since October 2024, before a subsequent recovery wave pushed it back above the $70,000 level.
This decline came as a result of intense sell-offs driven by the liquidation of leveraged positions, with investors reducing their risk exposure amid increasing uncertainty in the markets.
The largest cryptocurrency in the world fell by 2.2% to $69,392.7, amid cautious trading ahead of the release of key U.S. jobs and inflation data.
Bitcoin traded in a narrow price range during recent sessions, between $68,000 and $72,000, following a highly volatile week that saw strong selling pressures in the digital currency market.
The largest cryptocurrency in the world had fallen last week to nearly $60,000, its lowest level since October 2024, before a subsequent recovery wave pushed it back above the $70,000 level.
This decline came as a result of intense sell-offs driven by the liquidation of leveraged positions, with investors reducing their risk exposure amid increasing uncertainty in the markets.
Gold has risen to record levels near $5,000 per ounce, highlighting the sharp decline of alternative cryptocurrencies, while gold-backed real asset tokens like PAXG and XAUT have seen significant increases in adoption and trading.
Analyst Michael van de Poppe warned that "the valuation of alternative cryptocurrencies against gold has reached an all-time low, with the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 25, a number that has not been recorded before," confirming that the only similar case was during the market collapse in the COVID crisis.
PAX Gold (PAXG) is trading at around $5,035, with a daily trading volume of $425 million, while Tether Gold (XAUT) is stable at $5,013 after notable gains over the week and month, reflecting ongoing demand for digital gold as a safe haven amid weakness in alternative currencies.
This contrast shows the size of the gap between the digital market for tokenized gold, estimated at around $0.8–1 billion, compared to trillions of dollars in the actual gold market, despite its market value accelerating in 2026 with clearer regulatory frameworks and major institutions experimenting with gold-linked inventory products.
Analysts consider the historical decline of alternative cryptocurrencies against gold a "rare opportunity" for investors seeking long-term returns, but the continuation of this opportunity is tied to shifts in global liquidity.
Analyst Michael van de Poppe warned that "the valuation of alternative cryptocurrencies against gold has reached an all-time low, with the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 25, a number that has not been recorded before," confirming that the only similar case was during the market collapse in the COVID crisis.
PAX Gold (PAXG) is trading at around $5,035, with a daily trading volume of $425 million, while Tether Gold (XAUT) is stable at $5,013 after notable gains over the week and month, reflecting ongoing demand for digital gold as a safe haven amid weakness in alternative currencies.
This contrast shows the size of the gap between the digital market for tokenized gold, estimated at around $0.8–1 billion, compared to trillions of dollars in the actual gold market, despite its market value accelerating in 2026 with clearer regulatory frameworks and major institutions experimenting with gold-linked inventory products.
Analysts consider the historical decline of alternative cryptocurrencies against gold a "rare opportunity" for investors seeking long-term returns, but the continuation of this opportunity is tied to shifts in global liquidity.
A U.S. court sentenced Darren Lee, a dual citizen of China and Saint Kitts and Nevis, to 20 years in prison after he was convicted of leading a cryptocurrency fraud scheme that targeted American and international investors and stole more than $73 million.
The sentence, which also included three years of supervised release after imprisonment, was issued in the Central District of California, according to an official statement from the U.S. Department of Justice.
The investigation revealed that Lee and eight co-conspirators created fake websites that mimicked legitimate trading platforms, using a fraudulent tactic known as “digital pig butchering” to persuade victims to transfer their money into accounts controlled by the group.
Court documents showed that the defendants communicated with victims through social media and dating apps, forming personal or professional relationships before luring them into financial transfers.
Assistant U.S. Attorney A. Tyson Dova said, “The court's sentence reflects the severity of Lee's actions and the devastating losses suffered by the victims. We will work with our partners around the world to ensure the sentence is fully enforced.”
The sentence, which also included three years of supervised release after imprisonment, was issued in the Central District of California, according to an official statement from the U.S. Department of Justice.
The investigation revealed that Lee and eight co-conspirators created fake websites that mimicked legitimate trading platforms, using a fraudulent tactic known as “digital pig butchering” to persuade victims to transfer their money into accounts controlled by the group.
Court documents showed that the defendants communicated with victims through social media and dating apps, forming personal or professional relationships before luring them into financial transfers.
Assistant U.S. Attorney A. Tyson Dova said, “The court's sentence reflects the severity of Lee's actions and the devastating losses suffered by the victims. We will work with our partners around the world to ensure the sentence is fully enforced.”
Michael Saylor, the CEO of 'Strategy', continues to strengthen his investments in Bitcoin despite the sharp decline in prices, as the company maintains its dollar-cost averaging strategy at a time when the cryptocurrency has fallen to its lowest levels since 2024, exacerbating its losses.
The company announced the purchase of 1,142 Bitcoin over the past week at an average price of $78,815 per coin, raising its total holdings to 714,644 Bitcoin valued at over $49 billion.
According to data from Bitcoin Treasuries, the company's average cost of acquiring Bitcoin is about $76,052 per coin. With Bitcoin currently trading near the $69,000 level, 'Strategy' faces losses approaching 10%, in addition to unrealized losses of about $5 billion.
In a recent report, the company stated that its operating losses have jumped to over $17.4 billion as the price of Bitcoin continues to decline, while net losses have risen to $12.4 billion, amid fears of this trend continuing if the market maintains its negative performance.
Despite financial pressures, 'Strategy' continues to finance its Bitcoin purchases through the issuance of new shares, which dilutes shareholder stakes. Data indicates that the company has authorized common shares worth over $7.9 billion, along with more than $20 billion in preferred STRK shares.
The company announced the purchase of 1,142 Bitcoin over the past week at an average price of $78,815 per coin, raising its total holdings to 714,644 Bitcoin valued at over $49 billion.
According to data from Bitcoin Treasuries, the company's average cost of acquiring Bitcoin is about $76,052 per coin. With Bitcoin currently trading near the $69,000 level, 'Strategy' faces losses approaching 10%, in addition to unrealized losses of about $5 billion.
In a recent report, the company stated that its operating losses have jumped to over $17.4 billion as the price of Bitcoin continues to decline, while net losses have risen to $12.4 billion, amid fears of this trend continuing if the market maintains its negative performance.
Despite financial pressures, 'Strategy' continues to finance its Bitcoin purchases through the issuance of new shares, which dilutes shareholder stakes. Data indicates that the company has authorized common shares worth over $7.9 billion, along with more than $20 billion in preferred STRK shares.
Ethereum has shown early signs of recovery after a long period of weakness that drove prices sharply down. ETH has attempted to stabilize near key support levels, but the continued rise depends on sustained support from investors and broader market conditions.
Currently, it seems that Ethereum has at least one of these factors in its favor, keeping the chances of recovery alive.
Change in Ethereum Investors' Position
Chain data indicates a notable shift in investor behavior. The net exchange flow index, which tracks the capital flows into and out of exchanges, has turned negative for Ethereum. This suggests that more ETH is leaving exchanges compared to what is entering, a pattern often associated with accumulation rather than distribution.
These outflows indicate that holders are choosing to buy and transfer ETH to private wallets rather than preparing for sale. Low prices often encourage this behavior as investors position themselves for potential rebounds.
This shift in position reflects increasing confidence, even if the price has not yet fully mirrored the rising demand.
Currently, it seems that Ethereum has at least one of these factors in its favor, keeping the chances of recovery alive.
Change in Ethereum Investors' Position
Chain data indicates a notable shift in investor behavior. The net exchange flow index, which tracks the capital flows into and out of exchanges, has turned negative for Ethereum. This suggests that more ETH is leaving exchanges compared to what is entering, a pattern often associated with accumulation rather than distribution.
These outflows indicate that holders are choosing to buy and transfer ETH to private wallets rather than preparing for sale. Low prices often encourage this behavior as investors position themselves for potential rebounds.
This shift in position reflects increasing confidence, even if the price has not yet fully mirrored the rising demand.
Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, which has become commercially known as 'Strategic', revealed that the company is continuing its policy of purchasing Bitcoin regularly 'every three months forever', in a move that reaffirms its long-term commitment to the world's largest digital currency despite recent market fluctuations.
In a press interview, Saylor emphasized that the company has sufficient cash liquidity to cover dividends and service debts for two and a half years without the need to raise additional funding, explaining that 'Strategic' does not plan to sell any of its Bitcoin holdings amid the recent price declines.
Saylor clarified that the company's investment philosophy is based on considering Bitcoin a long-term strategic asset, noting that the sharp fluctuations that characterize the market do not change his conviction in Bitcoin's ability to maintain its value over time; rather, they provide additional opportunities to strengthen positions during declines.
When asked about extreme scenarios, Saylor stated that his company would resort to refinancing its debts even if the price of Bitcoin were to drop by 90% over the next four years, in a clear indication of the significant bet that 'Strategic' is placing on the future of Bitcoin and its role in the global financial system.
In a press interview, Saylor emphasized that the company has sufficient cash liquidity to cover dividends and service debts for two and a half years without the need to raise additional funding, explaining that 'Strategic' does not plan to sell any of its Bitcoin holdings amid the recent price declines.
Saylor clarified that the company's investment philosophy is based on considering Bitcoin a long-term strategic asset, noting that the sharp fluctuations that characterize the market do not change his conviction in Bitcoin's ability to maintain its value over time; rather, they provide additional opportunities to strengthen positions during declines.
When asked about extreme scenarios, Saylor stated that his company would resort to refinancing its debts even if the price of Bitcoin were to drop by 90% over the next four years, in a clear indication of the significant bet that 'Strategic' is placing on the future of Bitcoin and its role in the global financial system.
Solana has experienced consecutive sessions of intense pressure, dropping to levels not recorded in nearly two years.
This sharp decline came after widespread weakness in the market, pushing SOL well below previous support zones.
Despite the downturn, early indicators show signs of stabilization beginning. Historical patterns suggest that Solana may be preparing for a recovery phase that could bring the price back toward the level of 100 $ or even exceed it.
Solana has seen similar conditions before.
On-chain valuation indicators suggest that Solana is significantly undervalued. The market cap to realized value ratio has dropped to its lowest level in nearly two and a half years.
This reading indicates that the market cap of SOL is much lower than the average cost of the traded tokens, reflecting widespread unrealized losses among holders.
Previous data has shown that such conditions often signal the end of corrections rather than the beginnings of sell waves. When the realized value exceeds the market cap by this margin, selling pressure often retreats.
Investors become less inclined to exit at a loss, paving the way for stabilization. This valuation disparity supports the view that the price of SOL is trading below fair value.
This sharp decline came after widespread weakness in the market, pushing SOL well below previous support zones.
Despite the downturn, early indicators show signs of stabilization beginning. Historical patterns suggest that Solana may be preparing for a recovery phase that could bring the price back toward the level of 100 $ or even exceed it.
Solana has seen similar conditions before.
On-chain valuation indicators suggest that Solana is significantly undervalued. The market cap to realized value ratio has dropped to its lowest level in nearly two and a half years.
This reading indicates that the market cap of SOL is much lower than the average cost of the traded tokens, reflecting widespread unrealized losses among holders.
Previous data has shown that such conditions often signal the end of corrections rather than the beginnings of sell waves. When the realized value exceeds the market cap by this margin, selling pressure often retreats.
Investors become less inclined to exit at a loss, paving the way for stabilization. This valuation disparity supports the view that the price of SOL is trading below fair value.
The price of MicroStrategy's stock is still trading below the key trend barriers despite rising by 33%
It confirmed that the trend confirmation is not complete. Use exponential moving averages, or EMAs, as price averages that give more weight to recent data. They help determine whether the trend is gaining strength or weakening.
Note that when the price trades below the key exponential moving averages, rallies often fail. Momentum usually recovers when these averages are reclaimed. Currently, the stock remains below the 20-day exponential moving average. This level has acted as resistance throughout the downward trend of MicroStrategy's stock price.
It was clarified that in early October, when MicroStrategy's stock price broke above the 20-day exponential moving average, the stock rose an additional 10% shortly after.
This confirmed the strength of the trend. The current rebound has not achieved that yet. When the exponential moving average is not clearly reclaimed, rallies tend to stall. This has also increased sensitivity to Bitcoin. Even a slight pullback in btc could lead to renewed selling in mstr.
It was identified that the structure is now confined within a narrow range of key levels. In the upward trend, 138$ represents the first major resistance. A daily close above this area indicated improved strength in mstr's stock price.
It confirmed that the trend confirmation is not complete. Use exponential moving averages, or EMAs, as price averages that give more weight to recent data. They help determine whether the trend is gaining strength or weakening.
Note that when the price trades below the key exponential moving averages, rallies often fail. Momentum usually recovers when these averages are reclaimed. Currently, the stock remains below the 20-day exponential moving average. This level has acted as resistance throughout the downward trend of MicroStrategy's stock price.
It was clarified that in early October, when MicroStrategy's stock price broke above the 20-day exponential moving average, the stock rose an additional 10% shortly after.
This confirmed the strength of the trend. The current rebound has not achieved that yet. When the exponential moving average is not clearly reclaimed, rallies tend to stall. This has also increased sensitivity to Bitcoin. Even a slight pullback in btc could lead to renewed selling in mstr.
It was identified that the structure is now confined within a narrow range of key levels. In the upward trend, 138$ represents the first major resistance. A daily close above this area indicated improved strength in mstr's stock price.
Big money accumulates quietly, but the bears still control the momentum.
One of the most important signals is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator.
CMF measures whether large investors are buying or selling by combining price with volume. When CMF rises, it indicates that the big players are accumulating. When it falls, it shows distribution occurring.
Between late November and early February, the value of the bearish strategy continued. But CMF slowly trended upwards during that period. This created a bullish divergence. While individual sentiment towards MicroStrategy weakened, large investors were quietly building their positions.
The analysis stated that after February 5, CMF finally moved above zero for the first time since December. This confirmed new capital entering the stock. It suggested that big money is positioning itself in anticipation of a potential Bitcoin improvement and sees the strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, as a leveraged way to express this opinion.
One of the most important signals is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator.
CMF measures whether large investors are buying or selling by combining price with volume. When CMF rises, it indicates that the big players are accumulating. When it falls, it shows distribution occurring.
Between late November and early February, the value of the bearish strategy continued. But CMF slowly trended upwards during that period. This created a bullish divergence. While individual sentiment towards MicroStrategy weakened, large investors were quietly building their positions.
The analysis stated that after February 5, CMF finally moved above zero for the first time since December. This confirmed new capital entering the stock. It suggested that big money is positioning itself in anticipation of a potential Bitcoin improvement and sees the strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, as a leveraged way to express this opinion.
Strategy Inc., also known as MicroStrategy, has recorded a sharp recovery in its stock price since early February. After forming a local bottom on February 5, the price of MSTR has risen by about 33% in just a few sessions.
This move came after a recovery in Bitcoin and a return of interest from large investors in MicroStrategy's Bitcoin-related business model led by Michael Saylor.
This bounce in MicroStrategy's stock price seems strong on the surface. But context is important. The main question remains whether this increase reflects lasting confidence in Strategy's long-term strategy towards Bitcoin, or if it is just another temporary rise associated with the sentiments of the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin and earnings explain the rebound — but also define its limits
It is clear that the behavior of Strategy's stock price over the long term is still closely tied to Bitcoin.
After Bitcoin peaked near 126 000$ in October, selling pressure spread in stocks linked to cryptocurrencies. Strategy almost immediately followed suit. From its peak in October, MicroStrategy's stock price has fallen by more than 70% as Bitcoin entered a deep correction.
Since February 5, Bitcoin has recovered by about 11%, moving from around 63 000$ to $70,000. During the same period, Strategy jumped about 33%. This three-to-one interaction illustrates how closely the stock is tied to Bitcoin's movements and reinforces the strong correlation between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.
This move came after a recovery in Bitcoin and a return of interest from large investors in MicroStrategy's Bitcoin-related business model led by Michael Saylor.
This bounce in MicroStrategy's stock price seems strong on the surface. But context is important. The main question remains whether this increase reflects lasting confidence in Strategy's long-term strategy towards Bitcoin, or if it is just another temporary rise associated with the sentiments of the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin and earnings explain the rebound — but also define its limits
It is clear that the behavior of Strategy's stock price over the long term is still closely tied to Bitcoin.
After Bitcoin peaked near 126 000$ in October, selling pressure spread in stocks linked to cryptocurrencies. Strategy almost immediately followed suit. From its peak in October, MicroStrategy's stock price has fallen by more than 70% as Bitcoin entered a deep correction.
Since February 5, Bitcoin has recovered by about 11%, moving from around 63 000$ to $70,000. During the same period, Strategy jumped about 33%. This three-to-one interaction illustrates how closely the stock is tied to Bitcoin's movements and reinforces the strong correlation between MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.
The first consecutive cash inflows in nearly a month for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds
U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded consecutive net cash inflows for the first time in nearly a month, thus ending a series of redemptions that had stretched since mid-January.
According to SoSo's data, this shift began on Friday with the injection of $471.1 million in new capital, followed by $144.9 million on Monday, as confidence returned to the market after the price of Bitcoin fell to around $60,000 on Thursday, before rising to about $70,000.
According to SoSo's data, this shift began on Friday with the injection of $471.1 million in new capital, followed by $144.9 million on Monday, as confidence returned to the market after the price of Bitcoin fell to around $60,000 on Thursday, before rising to about $70,000.
Tomorrow, 11 February 2026, the first L1-zkEVM workshop will provide a first look at a new system that could make block validation faster, cheaper, and easier for everyone.
Instead of re-executing every transaction in a block, Ethereum may soon rely on zero-knowledge proofs (ZK), allowing validators to verify transactions through cryptographic proofs.
Why Ethereum's shift to ZK proofs might redefine block validation
Ethereum Foundation researcher, Ladislaus.eth, described it as "perhaps one of the most impactful upgrades" in the network's history.
This change is part of the L1-zkEVM 2026 roadmap and focuses on the EIP-8025 feature (optional execution proofs). This allows certain validators, called zkAttesters, to confirm blocks using cryptographic proofs instead of verifying each transaction themselves.
The transition is optional, meaning no one is forced to upgrade, and all existing nodes continue to operate as they do today. However, for those who adopt it, the benefits could be significant.
Instead of re-executing every transaction in a block, Ethereum may soon rely on zero-knowledge proofs (ZK), allowing validators to verify transactions through cryptographic proofs.
Why Ethereum's shift to ZK proofs might redefine block validation
Ethereum Foundation researcher, Ladislaus.eth, described it as "perhaps one of the most impactful upgrades" in the network's history.
This change is part of the L1-zkEVM 2026 roadmap and focuses on the EIP-8025 feature (optional execution proofs). This allows certain validators, called zkAttesters, to confirm blocks using cryptographic proofs instead of verifying each transaction themselves.
The transition is optional, meaning no one is forced to upgrade, and all existing nodes continue to operate as they do today. However, for those who adopt it, the benefits could be significant.
The most dangerous arrangements for Bitcoin formed days before the October 10 collapse.. How to detect them next time
Billion-dollar liquidation events are no longer rare in cryptocurrency markets.
While these crashes often appear suddenly, data on the chain, leverage locations, and technical signals usually reveal the pressure before forced selling begins.
This article discusses whether rebuilding major historical events can help predict liquidation chains.
While these crashes often appear suddenly, data on the chain, leverage locations, and technical signals usually reveal the pressure before forced selling begins.
This article discusses whether rebuilding major historical events can help predict liquidation chains.
BTC price levels to watch
Bitcoin continues to hold above the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% near $63,007. As of writing this, BTC is trading around 68,905$ , maintaining support despite repeated testing. However, the price remains capped below resistance at $71,672, limiting immediate gains.
If the on-chain signals hold and inflows strengthen, Bitcoin may break the $71,672 level. Such a move would open the way towards $78,676. A stronger confirmation of recovery will only appear if BTC regains the $85,680$ level as sustainable support.
The risks remain tilted to the downside due to changing market structure. The short-term holder's supply ratio has risen above its upper limit compared to long-term holders. This reflects increased short-term participation, which is often associated with higher volatility.
This has harmed Bitcoin's price chances of surpassing the $71,672$ barrier and continuing its consolidation. Even if BTC manages to break this resistance level, selling pressure will push it back down towards $63,000$ , invalidating the bullish thesis.
Bitcoin continues to hold above the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% near $63,007. As of writing this, BTC is trading around 68,905$ , maintaining support despite repeated testing. However, the price remains capped below resistance at $71,672, limiting immediate gains.
If the on-chain signals hold and inflows strengthen, Bitcoin may break the $71,672 level. Such a move would open the way towards $78,676. A stronger confirmation of recovery will only appear if BTC regains the $85,680$ level as sustainable support.
The risks remain tilted to the downside due to changing market structure. The short-term holder's supply ratio has risen above its upper limit compared to long-term holders. This reflects increased short-term participation, which is often associated with higher volatility.
This has harmed Bitcoin's price chances of surpassing the $71,672$ barrier and continuing its consolidation. Even if BTC manages to break this resistance level, selling pressure will push it back down towards $63,000$ , invalidating the bullish thesis.
Why is Bitcoin likely to recover?
Macro indicators reinforce the narrative around the formation of a bottom. The Pi Cycle Top indicator, which compares the 111-day moving average with the 350-day moving average, remains far from signaling that BTC is entering an overbought zone.
Historically, this indicator has signaled major tops when the shorter average exceeds the upper limit.
Markets are currently witnessing a contrary scenario. The shorter moving average is diverging below the longer average, indicating calm conditions instead of excessive speculation.
In previous cycles, such divergences have often preceded strong recoveries after Bitcoin has reset its balance from overbought levels.
This cycle is different from previous ones. Since March 2023, Bitcoin has maintained an overall upward trend without excessive overheating.
The gradual price increase is overly speculative, making this the clearest bottom signal in nearly three years instead of a sharp bottom driven by rapid capitulation.
Macro indicators reinforce the narrative around the formation of a bottom. The Pi Cycle Top indicator, which compares the 111-day moving average with the 350-day moving average, remains far from signaling that BTC is entering an overbought zone.
Historically, this indicator has signaled major tops when the shorter average exceeds the upper limit.
Markets are currently witnessing a contrary scenario. The shorter moving average is diverging below the longer average, indicating calm conditions instead of excessive speculation.
In previous cycles, such divergences have often preceded strong recoveries after Bitcoin has reset its balance from overbought levels.
This cycle is different from previous ones. Since March 2023, Bitcoin has maintained an overall upward trend without excessive overheating.
The gradual price increase is overly speculative, making this the clearest bottom signal in nearly three years instead of a sharp bottom driven by rapid capitulation.
Bitcoin has tried to recover in recent sessions, but the upward momentum has stalled as the market awaits a clearer direction. The price has remained confined within a range after a sharp correction, frustrating short-term traders.
Historical indicators, despite this pause, suggest a potential bottom may form. Previous cycles show that similar conditions often precede new recovery phases.
The profitable Bitcoin supply reaches a level not seen since 2022
The recent decline in Bitcoin has triggered a signal not seen since the bear market of 2022. The percentage of supply in profit has dropped to around 50%, meaning that half of the circulating BTC is now underwater. Historically, this threshold has often coincided with market bottoms rather than extended sell-offs.
The incentive to sell decreases when the profitable supply contracts to these levels. Holders become less willing to incur losses, which reduces selling pressure. This dynamic in previous cycles has encouraged investors to hold despite volatility, allowing the price to stabilize before resuming recovery.
Historical indicators, despite this pause, suggest a potential bottom may form. Previous cycles show that similar conditions often precede new recovery phases.
The profitable Bitcoin supply reaches a level not seen since 2022
The recent decline in Bitcoin has triggered a signal not seen since the bear market of 2022. The percentage of supply in profit has dropped to around 50%, meaning that half of the circulating BTC is now underwater. Historically, this threshold has often coincided with market bottoms rather than extended sell-offs.
The incentive to sell decreases when the profitable supply contracts to these levels. Holders become less willing to incur losses, which reduces selling pressure. This dynamic in previous cycles has encouraged investors to hold despite volatility, allowing the price to stabilize before resuming recovery.
The Financial Supervisory Service in South Korea has launched an extensive investigation into the "Bithumb" platform following an unprecedented incident in which nearly 43 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin was sent to user accounts due to an internal programming error, causing widespread concern in the cryptocurrency market and reigniting the debate over regulatory and governance standards in this rapidly growing sector.
According to Yonhap News Agency, the routine inspection that the authority was conducting turned into a comprehensive investigation after it was discovered that the trading platform distributed hundreds of thousands of units of Bitcoin during a promotional campaign, after the rewards were mistakenly listed as Bitcoin instead of Korean won.
Government officials confirmed that the authorities will deal with the incident with the utmost severity to ensure market stability and protect investors.
On February 6, approximately 620,000 units of Bitcoin were transferred to hundreds of accounts at once, a number that far exceeds the platform's actual reserves.
Bithumb rushed to recover the vast majority of the distributed Bitcoin, confirming that it managed to reclaim more than 99% of the balances transferred by mistake, along with a large portion of the amounts sold by some users immediately upon reaching their accounts.
According to Yonhap News Agency, the routine inspection that the authority was conducting turned into a comprehensive investigation after it was discovered that the trading platform distributed hundreds of thousands of units of Bitcoin during a promotional campaign, after the rewards were mistakenly listed as Bitcoin instead of Korean won.
Government officials confirmed that the authorities will deal with the incident with the utmost severity to ensure market stability and protect investors.
On February 6, approximately 620,000 units of Bitcoin were transferred to hundreds of accounts at once, a number that far exceeds the platform's actual reserves.
Bithumb rushed to recover the vast majority of the distributed Bitcoin, confirming that it managed to reclaim more than 99% of the balances transferred by mistake, along with a large portion of the amounts sold by some users immediately upon reaching their accounts.
Sharp decline for Ethereum while BitMine considers the drop as an entry opportunity
Continuous purchases indicate that BitMine remains committed to expanding its Ether reserves, even amid market uncertainty.
It was pointed out to me that the company sees the price drop as a strategic buying opportunity, citing improvements in the network's fundamentals.
He also clarified the strength of the network despite falling prices. The number of daily Ethereum transactions reached 2.5 million, and the number of active addresses was one million in 2026, as stated in BitMine's official statement. These figures indicate increasing adoption regardless of market volatility.
According to data from Bin Crypto Markets, ETH dropped by 13.2% over the past week.
At the time of writing this report, the price of the second-largest cryptocurrency was $2,012, down by 3.28% over the past day.
Continuous purchases indicate that BitMine remains committed to expanding its Ether reserves, even amid market uncertainty.
It was pointed out to me that the company sees the price drop as a strategic buying opportunity, citing improvements in the network's fundamentals.
He also clarified the strength of the network despite falling prices. The number of daily Ethereum transactions reached 2.5 million, and the number of active addresses was one million in 2026, as stated in BitMine's official statement. These figures indicate increasing adoption regardless of market volatility.
According to data from Bin Crypto Markets, ETH dropped by 13.2% over the past week.
At the time of writing this report, the price of the second-largest cryptocurrency was $2,012, down by 3.28% over the past day.
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