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polymaket
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The battle for 'stealing the house' in prediction markets and crypto exchanges is officially on. Polymarket just announced the launch of perpetual contracts (Perps), with Kalshi following closely behind, set to roll out its crypto perpetual product codenamed 'Timeless' on April 27.
This isn't just business expansion; it's a direct declaration of war between two giants in the crypto derivatives market.
Kalshi is directly converting major cryptocurrencies into perpetual contracts, backed by USD. This marks Kalshi's first move beyond 'event betting', diving straight into the heart of CEX/DEX.
Polymarket is not only offering traditional assets but also innovatively perpetualizing the 'predicted events' themselves. You're no longer waiting for a result; you can now leverage long or short on Trump's approval ratings and game outcomes 24/7.
Deep Impact and Industry Shift
1. Dimension of User Group Attack
Prediction markets are merging 'news gamblers' and 'crypto traders' through Perps. Polymarket's large active user base will directly siphon traffic from platforms like Hyperliquid.
2. Survival Battle of the Existing Market
Exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken) are vying for a piece of the prediction market pie, while prediction platforms are cutting into derivatives from the other side. This kind of 'mutual heart extraction' competition is all about liquidity and regulatory depth.
3. A Complete Farewell to 'Expiration Anxiety'
Traditional prediction contracts are limited by outcome realization, but Perps allow for continuous trading, greatly unleashing liquidity limits. Bernstein predicts a trillion-dollar market size, which might arrive sooner due to 'everything can be perpetual'.
4. Regulatory Power's Dimensional Strike
Kalshi holds a CFTC license, meaning U.S. users now have a compliant direct channel to engage in crypto leverage. This regulatory edge poses a significant threat to traditional gray-area derivatives platforms.
The prediction market is at the singularity of 'crypto-derivatization'. Polymarket plays the 'everything is bettable' game, while Kalshi takes the 'regulatory assimilation' route. In the coming months, these two platforms will become the most brutal and wild new battleground outside of traditional CEX.
#Polymaket #合约挑战
This isn't just business expansion; it's a direct declaration of war between two giants in the crypto derivatives market.
Kalshi is directly converting major cryptocurrencies into perpetual contracts, backed by USD. This marks Kalshi's first move beyond 'event betting', diving straight into the heart of CEX/DEX.
Polymarket is not only offering traditional assets but also innovatively perpetualizing the 'predicted events' themselves. You're no longer waiting for a result; you can now leverage long or short on Trump's approval ratings and game outcomes 24/7.
Deep Impact and Industry Shift
1. Dimension of User Group Attack
Prediction markets are merging 'news gamblers' and 'crypto traders' through Perps. Polymarket's large active user base will directly siphon traffic from platforms like Hyperliquid.
2. Survival Battle of the Existing Market
Exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken) are vying for a piece of the prediction market pie, while prediction platforms are cutting into derivatives from the other side. This kind of 'mutual heart extraction' competition is all about liquidity and regulatory depth.
3. A Complete Farewell to 'Expiration Anxiety'
Traditional prediction contracts are limited by outcome realization, but Perps allow for continuous trading, greatly unleashing liquidity limits. Bernstein predicts a trillion-dollar market size, which might arrive sooner due to 'everything can be perpetual'.
4. Regulatory Power's Dimensional Strike
Kalshi holds a CFTC license, meaning U.S. users now have a compliant direct channel to engage in crypto leverage. This regulatory edge poses a significant threat to traditional gray-area derivatives platforms.
The prediction market is at the singularity of 'crypto-derivatization'. Polymarket plays the 'everything is bettable' game, while Kalshi takes the 'regulatory assimilation' route. In the coming months, these two platforms will become the most brutal and wild new battleground outside of traditional CEX.
#Polymaket #合约挑战
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