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Everyone is focused on who wins the US election, while the crypto market is quietly showing something else: political tokens are falling, but most of the market is rising.

The facts: More than 80 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies rose on Wednesday (CoinMarketCap data, Nov. 4, 2026), while the official TRUMP token fell about 21% in 24 hours—below every daily close since its launch in January 2025, to around $1.25. WLFI hit a record low, about 90% below its September 2025 peak. Polymarket puts the odds of US crypto market structure legislation passing in 2026 at around 6%.

My take: This is what Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan calls a sign of maturity—in a post on X, he wrote that crypto is showing “remarkable signs of maturity,” because assets whose value depends on a single political outcome are being priced separately from the market’s backbone. His additional argument: recent BTC drawdowns have averaged around 50%, compared with historical peaks of around 80%. I partly agree: this decoupling is real and healthy, but one quiet day doesn’t mean a new regime—BTC is around $80,080 this morning, and the market is still waiting for its next catalyst.

What I’m watching next: whether this decoupling holds as the fate of the market structure bill becomes clearer, whether TRUMP and WLFI find a floor, and the two nearest macro catalysts—the Bank of England decision tonight at 7:00 PM WIB and the US jobs report on Friday.

What do you think: is the decoupling of political tokens from the broader market a sign that crypto has matured—or just a one-day pause before the market starts moving in lockstep again?

This is my analysis, not financial advice—always DYOR.

#PasarKripto #PemiluAS $BTC $TRUMP $WLFI

Democrats steal their first Senate seat tonight — and it changes the math for crypto legislation in Congress.

The facts: Roy Cooper (Democrat) wins in North Carolina, flipping the first Senate seat tonight (live coverage from The Wall Street Journal and The Times, Nov. 4). Democrats also hold Georgia (Ossoff), New Hampshire (Pappas), and Virginia (Warner), and claim victory in Florida’s 22nd district. But control of both chambers is NOT yet decided — AP data still marks many seats as “too early to call.”

My take: This matters for crypto not because of one seat, but because of the timing. The CLARITY Act failed 49–50 on September 15 and expires on January 3 if the Senate doesn’t act — the makeup of the new Congress will determine whether that market-structure bill comes back to life or gets buried. BTC is still around $76,900 this morning, below last night’s high of $78,039 — the market isn’t celebrating, and I think that’s the right response: this is uncertainty, not an immediate catalyst.

What I’m watching: calls in the toss-up races (Texas, Ohio, Maine, Alaska, Michigan) and whether Democrats actually take the House.

Do you think this new Congress will speed up or bury U.S. crypto legislation?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#PemiluAS #RegulasiCrypto $BTC

The US midterm results are becoming clearer: Democrats are projected to take the House — and the Senate is also set to flip, according to the latest projections.

Facts: Decision Desk HQ data cited by FXStreet (Nov. 4) show Democrats have secured 218 House seats, the majority threshold in the 435-seat chamber. In the Senate, live projections from USA Today and the AP cited by Realtor (Nov. 4) say Democrats have taken control after winning in Texas (Talarico defeating Paxton), South Carolina (Andrews), North Carolina (Cooper), Ohio, Kansas, and Iowa. Important: these are still media projections, not certified official results — several close races are still being counted.

My take: This changes the crypto regulatory landscape. The CLARITY Act, which failed 49–50 on Sep. 15 and expires on Jan. 3 if the Senate does not act, will now have to be renegotiated under a Democratic Congress and a Republican White House. A divided government usually means slower legislation, not faster progress — so don't expect crypto rules to suddenly race ahead. The market reaction has been calm so far: BTC is still around $77,200 and ETH around $2,275, with neither a rally nor panic selling. The market seems to have already priced in this gridlock.

What I'm watching: official confirmation of the close races, the Democratic leadership's stance on the CLARITY Act, and the next market catalysts — US ISM Services tonight at 22:00 WIB and Friday's NFP.

Do you think this flipped Congress will speed up or slow down US crypto regulation?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#PemiluAS #RegulasiCrypto $BTC

Bloomberg survey: BTC’s year-end fate also depends on who wins tonight’s US election.

Fact: The Bloomberg Markets Pulse survey (Nov. 3) puts BTC’s median year-end price at $90,800 if Republicans control both the House and Senate, $84,100 if power is divided, and $76,450 if Democrats sweep both — the last figure is nearly the same as the current price, around $77,670. TD Cowen analysts quoted by Bloomberg view a Democratic sweep as the toughest scenario for the crypto industry, since it could stall the CLARITY Act market structure bill, which already failed in the Senate last September. But Bitwise research (Nov. 2) found no statistically significant link so far between election odds and the performance of major crypto assets.

My take: These figures aren’t price forecasts, but a reflection of respondents’ expectations about political scenarios — and the Bitwise finding is an important reminder: survey expectations don’t necessarily translate into price movements. What will really move the market is the official result, and whether the CLARITY Act gets a second chance in 2027, not tonight’s odds.

What I’m watching: the first election results, which are expected to start coming in this morning WIB, followed by US labor data on Friday — two catalysts this week.

Which scenario do you think is most likely — and will this election really change BTC’s direction, or is it just overnight noise?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#PemiluAS #Bitcoin $BTC

The US midterm elections are tomorrow—and there’s a pattern that has some traders on edge while others think it’s nothing. Which side are you on?

View A — the “midterm curse” is real: analyst Ali Martinez noted that BTC fell sharply after the last 4 midterm elections: −72% (2010), −65% (2014), −52% (2018), −27% (2022). The pattern has weakened with each cycle, but it has never failed. His suggested plan: watch for post-election weakness, then keep an eye on the $73,000 area—around the cost basis for short-term holders that previously held off major corrections.

View B — already priced in: analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes the midterms are priced in and will be a non-event, with BTC in the final stages of its correction and potentially making one last sweep of the lows before a year-end rally. Supporting argument: this year’s low was already set on July 1 at around $57,850—125 days before the vote—and each past drop had its own cause: Mt. Gox (2014), the Bitcoin Cash split (2018), FTX (2022). Calendar correlation isn’t a mechanism.

I’m leaning toward B, but with a condition—this view is invalidated if BTC closes a daily candle below $77,831 (the 100-day EMA) after the election and ETF outflows pick up again; that would shift me to A. BTC is currently around $78,146, still between that support and the $80,307 resistance.

Reply in the comments: A or B—and your strongest reason.

This is my analysis, not financial advice—always DYOR.

#Bitcoin #PemiluAS $BTC