pasarhariini

Today's market in 5 lines: it briefly fell to 67,490, then closed the Asian session above 69,000 — and the 20:30 WIB PPI will determine what comes next.

Today's numbers:
• BTC ~69,150 — low 67,490, 4H close 69,290 (19:45 WIB)
• ETH ~1,959 — low 1,894, still below 2,000
• SOL ~80.7 · XRP ~1.02 — slight recovery from the morning lows
• 24-hour liquidations ~1.64 billion dollars, ~89% of positions were longs (CoinGlass via CoinDesk, Nov 13)
• US PPI at 20:30 WIB: consensus +0.4% vs +1.3% in September; core +0.3% vs +0.7%

My take: this morning's flush cleared out leverage — nearly 9 out of 10 liquidations were long positions — but the bounce to 69,290 hasn't changed anything: BTC is still below 70,000 and below yesterday's close of 71,460. What changed today: the 200-week average zone at 67,750–68,000 held instead of simply breaking down.

What I'm watching next: the 20:30 WIB PPI reading — a hot number means a retest of 67,500; a soft one opens the way to reclaiming 70,000.

Do you think tonight's PPI is more likely to push BTC back above 70,000, or send it to test 67,500 again?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#PasarHariIni #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

The market is closing this Thursday defensively — BTC is back below 73,000 and ETH is pressing 2,000. Five numbers tonight:

• BTC 72,875 — vs. Wednesday’s close of 73,928 (The Crypto Basic, Nov. 12): down 1.4%, back below 73,000.
• ETH 2,019 — vs. Wednesday’s close of 2,053: down 1.7%, below 2,030; 2,000 is just a step away.
• SOL 82.09 — today’s 4H range: 82.04–85.80; closing near the bottom.
• XRP 1.0357 — today’s 4H range: 1.0325–1.0804; also near the bottom.
• Fear & Greed 28 (Fear), down from 29 yesterday (KuCoin, Nov. 12, 00:00 UTC).

My take: the market hasn’t found a floor yet. All four major coins closed the day near their lows, below the short-term holder cost basis of around 75,600, and Bitcoin ETFs are still on a five-day outflow streak. These five numbers aren’t enough to predict direction — tonight’s U.S. data will be decisive.

What I’m watching next: U.S. jobless claims at 20:30 WIB tonight, followed by U.S. PPI tomorrow at 20:30 WIB. If BTC breaks below 72,723 (today’s low), the pressure continues; reclaiming 75,600 would ease it.

What do you think — will BTC test 72,000 first tomorrow, or reclaim 75,600 instead?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#PasarHariIni #Bitcoin $BTC

Today's market in 5 lines — the money hasn't disappeared; it's moved to a different address.

• BTC 73,854 — still below Strategy's cost basis of 75,456 and resistance at 77,684 (candle closes at 19:45 WIB).
• All 17 of the top 17 ETFs by inflows over the last 5 sessions were equity funds (Balchunas via Cointelegraph + FXStreet, Nov. 11).
• Around US$12 billion per day flowed into US ETFs during those 5 sessions.
• BTC ETFs: down US$1.6 billion since the start of November (SoSoValue via FXStreet, Nov. 11).
• Tomorrow's calendar: UK GDP at 14:00 WIB, US jobless claims at 20:30 WIB; US PPI on Friday at 20:30 WIB.

My take: this isn't a market that money has abandoned; it's a market money has temporarily stepped away from — equity buyers are scooping up the dip, while BTC buyers are waiting. Fear & Greed at 29 (Fear, alternative.me, Nov. 11) explains the mood, but the rotation can reverse as quickly as it came — what matters is whether BTC ETF outflows stop bleeding when Friday's PPI comes out.

Of these five numbers, which one do you think will most determine tomorrow's direction?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#PasarHariIni #RekapPasar $BTC

Today's market in 5 lines — and everything is waiting on one number: US CPI at 20:30 WIB.

• BTC: 74,300 — still below the key zone at 77,684, above the weekend flush low of 73,436
• ETH: 2,097 — below the October floor of 2,170, trading sideways all day
• SOL: 84.89 — down from 86.05 this morning, today's range is 84.17–86.79
• XRP: 1.0786 — below 1.09, barely moved since the afternoon
• Fear & Greed: 32 (Fear) — slightly up from 29 yesterday, but still fearful

My take: this is a day to hold your breath, not make decisions. Prices are tightening into a narrow range and sentiment is improving slightly without turning bullish — the market is waiting for CPI at 20:30 WIB (consensus: 0.3% headline, 0.2% core) before choosing a direction. These five numbers aren't enough to predict the CPI result; they only say that the market isn't willing to bet before the data comes out.

CPI is due at 20:30 WIB — what number do you think would put the market at ease?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#PasarHariIni #CPI $BTC

Monday closed with markets still cautious — here's the market today in 5 lines.

Key figures:
• BTC ~$74.505 — recovered from a low of $73.436, but still below Strategy's average cost of $75.451 (MEXC kline, close at 19:00 WIB)
• ETH ~$2.117 — closed Sunday below its 200-day average for the first time since August 18 (CoinDesk, Nov 9)
• Futures volume +200% to ~$180 billion/24 hours, open interest −3% to ~$127 billion (CoinDesk, Nov 9)
• Implied options volatility: BTC ~43% (up from ~33% Thursday), ETH ~60% (up from ~46%) (CoinDesk, Nov 9)
• US October CPI tomorrow, Tuesday, Nov 10 at 20:30 WIB — consensus +0.3% m/m (down from +0.6%), core +0.2% (down from +0.3%)

My take: volume exploded while open interest shrank — that's forced liquidations, not new positions. The market isn't building a direction; it's closing out risk ahead of CPI. ETH losing its 200-day average confirms that pressure is still to the downside.

What I'm watching next: tomorrow's CPI at 20:30 WIB — a hot reading means a greater chance of a December hike; a cool one means some relief.

What do you think: is tomorrow's CPI more likely to be a bounce or another blow?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#PasarHariIni #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

The market closed flat on Sunday—and that’s exactly what makes it interesting.

Tonight’s numbers (Nov 8, ~20:00 WIB):
• $BTC ~$75,954 — today’s 4H range was $75,533–$75,999, still below the key $77,684 zone; −2.2% for the week (CoinGecko via VoxTradePro, Nov 8)
• ETH ~$2,239, SOL ~$89.50, XRP ~$1.1635 — all three have barely moved since morning
• Fear & Greed at 28 (Fear), up from 25 yesterday, which was still Extreme Fear (alternative.me, Nov 8)
• Total market cap $2.56 trillion, −2.9% in 24 hours; BTC dominance ~60% (CoinGecko, Nov 8)
• U.S. spot BTC ETFs: −$1.28 billion for the week of Nov 2–6, the worst since June (The Block/Farside, Nov 7)

My take: the market is holding its breath, not recovering. Sentiment has improved slightly, but institutional flows were still negative for the week—and prices are refusing to fall further or bounce back. Flat like this isn’t calm; it’s a waiting game.

What I’m watching: U.S. CPI on Tuesday, Nov 10 at 20:30 WIB, BoE Governor Bailey’s speech on Tuesday at 00:25 WIB, and Monday’s 07:00 WIB weekly close relative to the 50-day moving average at $75,556.

What do you think: is Tuesday’s CPI more likely to trigger a rebound, or give the market another reason to fall?

This is my analysis, not financial advice—always DYOR.

#PasarHariIni #Bitcoin $BTC

A quiet Saturday after a brutal week — prices barely moved, but sentiment grew even more fearful.

Today's numbers:
• BTC ~$75.867 (close at 20:00 WIB) — traded in a narrow $75.790–$76.210 range throughout Saturday, still well below the $80.000 lost on Thursday (Thursday low: $75.208).
• ETH ~$2.241 and SOL ~$89,86 (close at 20:00 WIB) — ETH ranged from $2.237–$2.251, SOL from $89,61–$90,35; both stayed flat all day.
• Fear & Greed 25, Extreme Fear (alternative.me, Nov 7) — down from 28 yesterday and 30 a week ago; the lowest reading since early August.
• Odds of a December Fed hike ~77–78% (CME FedWatch, Nov 6–7) — up from ~67% before yesterday's NFP of +165 thousand versus the 65 thousand consensus.
• Gold ~$4.071/oz (Kitco, goldprice.com, Nov 7) — down from Thursday's close of $4.088, also weakening after the NFP report.

What it means to me: this is a day of holding our breath, not a day of recovery. BTC, ETH, and SOL are parked near Thursday's lows, with no meaningful bounce attempt, while Fear & Greed has fallen to 25 — the market is scared, but sellers are no longer pushing prices down aggressively either. Gold falling too suggests that the dollar and rate-hike expectations are weighing on all risk assets at once.

What I'm watching next: US CPI on Tuesday, Nov 10 at 20:30 WIB — the deciding factor in whether December hike odds hold at ~78% or shift; BTC at $75.208 (Thursday's low) if it breaks lower, and $76.346 (Friday's high) if it recovers.

With sentiment at 25 but prices going nowhere — do you think this is a market running out of sellers, or one waiting for a reason to fall again?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#PasarHariIni #CPI $BTC $ETH $SOL

Markets are closing Friday with one unanswered question: NFP, in 30 minutes.

Today's numbers:
• BTC ~$76.006 (15m kline closes at 19:45 WIB) — on Thursday it briefly hit $80.918, then fell to a low of $75.208 (Coinspeaker, Nov. 6).
• ETH ~$2.238 and SOL ~$90,18 (close at 19:45 WIB) — ETH was at $2.420 on Thursday, SOL at $96,49.
• NFP at 20:30 WIB: consensus is +65,000 jobs vs. +29,000 in September; unemployment at 4.2% (economic calendar + Reuters poll, Nov. 6).
• Gold briefly hit $4.147 on Thursday, its highest in more than two weeks — now ~$4.050–$4.063, back below $4.100 (TradingKey & SifuGold, Nov. 6).
• Odds of a December Fed hike are ~67–68% (CME FedWatch via TradingKey; NordFX, Nov. 6).

My take: this is a waiting day, not a recovery day. BTC, ETH, and SOL are still parked near Thursday's lows — this afternoon's bounce to $76.300 wasn't enough to change anything, and gold slipping back below $4.100 shows the market isn't willing to take a bet before the data comes out. NFP will determine whether expectations for a December hike rise or fall, and crypto will follow that direction.

What I'm watching next: the 20:30 WIB NFP release and UoM consumer sentiment at 22:00 WIB; if the data is strong, Thursday's low of $75.208 will be tested — if the data is weak, today's high of $76.346.

Which NFP result worries you more — too strong, making a hike more certain, or too weak, making the economy look like it's slowing down?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#PasarHariIni #NFP $BTC $ETH $SOL

Today's market in 5 lines — and the close was red.

1️⃣ $BTC ~$78.130 — broke below $80.000, then $79.000, in one evening session, after starting at $80.390 at 19:00 WIB. Its 24-hour gain shrank to ~0.3%.
2️⃣ $ETH ~$2.338 — down from $2.421, a drop of ~3.4% in the same session.
3️⃣ $SOL ~$92,9 — down from $96,5, a drop of ~3.8%. Altcoins were dragged down too, not just BTC.
4️⃣ US jobless claims: 189.000 — the lowest since 1969. Labor data is strong, but prices are still falling tonight.
5️⃣ Tomorrow: NFP at 20:30 WIB (forecast: 65 thousand) + Zcash NU7 activation around 09:30 WIB.

My take: yesterday's post-election rebound was mostly wiped out in three hours. $80.000 is resistance again, and the level I'm watching now is $78.000 — tonight's low was $78.018. If that level breaks, $75.000 is the next topic; if it holds, this is just a correction within the range.

Not financial advice — always DYOR.

NFP tomorrow: do you think the labor data is more likely to calm the market or add more pressure?

#PasarHariIni #Bitcoin #Crypto $BTC $ETH $SOL

The market today in 5 lines — and one meaning that ties it all together.

• BTC briefly swept down to $75,696 this morning, then rebounded to around $78,300 tonight.
• Eurozone October inflation: 4.0% y/y (Eurostat via Reuters, Nov 4) — a three-year high, up from 3.8%.
• U.S. spot ETFs, Nov 3 session: BTC −$115.6 million (day 3), ETH −$85.3 million (day 7) — Farside Investors data.
• Circle Q3: adjusted EPS of 84 cents vs. expectations of 37 cents, but reserve income fell 8%.
• Tonight’s agenda: U.S. ISM Services at 22:00 WIB (expected 54.8 vs. 54.9 previously); U.S. jobs report on Friday.

My take: this is a day of price recovery, not a reversal in flows. ETF outflows are slowing but haven’t stopped, European inflation keeps the ECB on a tight path, and two U.S. data releases are still ahead — the market is holding its breath, not stepping on the gas.

Of these five figures, which one do you think will most determine tomorrow’s direction?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#PasarHariIni #RekapPasar $BTC $ETH

Today's market in 5 lines: BTC closed the day around $77,350 — bouncing, but not yet breaking its lower-high pattern.

1. BTC briefly slipped to around $76,520 this afternoon, then bounced to around $77,350 tonight; its latest 4H high of $77,486 is still below yesterday's $78,400. In my view, this is a bounce within a downtrend, not a reversal.
2. Today's exception: XRP rose about 2.5% to $1.2814, while ETH at around $2,282, SOL at around $93.06, and BNB at around $700.80 were mostly flat to weaker. When one coin moves on its own, I don't read it as a market signal.
3. The Binance story reversed: from peak withdrawals of around $7 billion, flows shifted to net inflows of around $1.6 billion over 24 hours. But the SAFU fund is now below the $800 million threshold — and the promised top-up still has no deadline.
4. Security concerns haven't eased: a Brazilian exchange pledged to cover losses, South Korean regulators are pushing exchanges to increase their cold-wallet allocation, and the Arbitrum council moved stolen funds via a vote. The market is still digesting that $6.3 billion hack, not forgetting it.
5. What I'm watching tonight: JOLTS at 22:00 WIB and US congressional election results starting at 22:16 WIB, followed by AMD earnings after the US market closes and Friday's jobs report. Tonight's volatility could come from the schedule, not the chart.

My takeaway: a day that ends flat after days of shocks isn't a sign of calm — it's a sign the market is waiting for the next headline before choosing a direction. I'm still waiting for confirmation, not guessing at a breakout.

Which catalyst do you think will move the market first: JOLTS, the election results, or AMD earnings?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#PasarHariIni #AnalisisCrypto $BTC $ETH $XRP

Today's market in 5 lines: BTC closed Monday around $78,000 — flat, but the story isn't in the price.

1. $BTC touched $78,846 this morning, then faded to around $78,000 tonight; the 4H highs declined throughout the day. I think this is tired consolidation, not a reversal.
2. $ETH around $2,290 and $SOL around $94.5 were also flat — no major asset took the lead. When everything is uniformly quiet, I don't force a directional call.
3. Today's real theme was security: South Korean regulators are pressuring exchanges to increase their cold wallet holdings following a $6.3 billion hack. The market is still digesting the incident, not forgetting it.
4. The options market is pricing in a brief jolt from the U.S. election: BTC IV for the Nov. 4 expiry is around 43.5%, versus around 36% for later expiries. The market is bracing for a short burst of volatility, not a prolonged one.
5. What I'm watching: ISM Manufacturing PMI tonight at 22:00 WIB, then the U.S. election tomorrow and Apple earnings early the next morning. Three catalysts that could break this lull.

My takeaway: a flat day like this isn't information-free — it says the market is waiting, not feeling confident. I'm still waiting for confirmation, not guessing at a breakout.

Which catalyst do you think will move the market first: tonight's ISM, the election, or Apple earnings?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#PasarHariIni #AnalisisCrypto $BTC $ETH $SOL