opsikripto

Tomorrow afternoon, $2.78 billion worth of BTC and ETH options expire — and both spot prices are still below their max pain points.

Key figures:
• Total expiry on Friday, Nov 13 at 15:00 WIB: around $2.78 billion (Greeks.live, Nov 12) — BTC: around 34,000 contracts worth $2.48 billion; ETH: around 148,000 contracts worth $300 million.
• Max pain: BTC at $76,000, ETH at $2,200 — both above current prices (BTC around $73,647, ETH around $2,050, based on the kline data I just checked).
• Put/call ratios point in opposite directions: BTC 0.52 (calls dominate), ETH 1.55 (puts dominate) — a Deribit-based tracker confirms the same max pain figures.

What that means to me: max pain isn’t a price target — it’s the point at which the most contracts expire worthless, so prices tend to be held near it as expiry approaches, rather than being pulled toward it. The interesting part is the contrast: BTC options buyers still lean toward calls, while ETH buyers lean toward puts — the market is reading these two coins differently ahead of Friday. But one dataset isn’t enough to draw a conclusion: weekly expiries like this are routine; what makes this one worth watching is its size amid an already defensive market.

What I’m watching next: whether BTC holds above $72,691 ahead of tomorrow’s 15:00 WIB expiry, and whether volatility picks up after these contracts expire.

What do you think — is $76,000 max pain more often a magnet or a trap?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#OpsiKripto #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH

This Friday, $11.7 billion worth of BTC and ETH options expire — and their “max pain” levels don’t align with current prices.

The facts: On Deribit, around 135,000 BTC options contracts worth $10.92 billion expire on Friday, Oct. 30, at 15:00 WIB, with a max pain level of $78,000 and a put/call ratio of 0.53. At the same time, $776 million worth of ETH options expire, with a max pain level of $2,500 and a put/call ratio of 0.77. That’s nearly $11.7 billion in total. (Deribit data via PANews, confirmed by KuCoin and Phemex, Oct. 28.)

My take: max pain isn’t a price target — it’s the level at which the most options expire worthless, benefiting option sellers the most. A put/call ratio below 1 means there are more call contracts than puts, but that’s not a purely bullish signal: calls can be sold or used as a hedge. The contrast is interesting: BTC is currently around $81,469, above its $78,000 max pain level, while ETH is around $2,368, below its $2,500 max pain level. And the timing is layered: the Fed decision early tomorrow morning, Oct. 29 at 01:00 WIB, comes before Friday’s expiry.

What I’m watching: whether BTC holds above $80,000 through the Fed decision, and whether volatility heats up ahead of Friday’s settlement — not whether prices get “pulled” toward max pain, because there’s no fixed rule that says they will.

Do you think an expiry this large is more likely to shake the market through position adjustments, or simply pass by because most contracts expire worthless anyway?

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#OpsiKripto #Deribit $BTC $ETH