octobermarketup

#FedMinutesFocusOnOctoberPause

Market expectations have dramatically shifted toward an October pause as investors await the release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% range last month, cooling economic indicators have drastically reshaped the macroeconomic landscape. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Following softer-than-expected August PCE inflation data and a notably weak September non-farm payrolls report, traders have slashed the probability of an October rate increase to roughly 22%. The hashtag #FedMinutesFocusOnOctoberPause highlights the market's intense scrutiny of today's minutes to gauge whether internal policymakers were already leaning toward a patient, data-dependent pause before the recent weak data dropped. [1, 2]

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🚨 CPI tomorrow: the data that could move $BTC
📅
📍 Wednesday, October 14, 6:30 AM Guatemala time (8:30 AM ET)
📊 What the market expects
Headline inflation: 3.7% year over year (August: 3.4%), due to rising energy prices (tradingkey)
Core: 2.5% year over year (August: 2.4%) (tradingkey)
Monthly core: expected to fall to 0.2% (coinpedia)
🎭 Scenarios
🔴 Hot reading (core above expectations): the likelihood of a rate hike rises and could put pressure on $BTC and $ETH

⚪ In line: probably little reaction, with sideways movement
🟢 Soft reading (core below expectations): less pressure on the Fed, which could support Bitcoin and Ethereum (coinpedia)
⚠️ Key context
The odds of the Fed raising rates in October are around 17% (rg)
This is the last CPI report before the Fed's October 28 decision (admiralmarkets)
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks on October 16 (coinpedia)
🎯 My plan: don't open new positions right before the report. With BTC near 83K, I'm watching support at 82.3K. If there's volatility, I'll wait for things to calm down before acting.
❓ What do you think will happen with CPI?
🟢 Soft
🔴 Hot
⚠️ This is not financial advice. DYOR.
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