U.S. June CPI comes in hotter than expected—where does gold go next?
The just-released U.S. June core CPI data directly beat market expectations: the year-over-year rate came in at only 2.6%, while the month-over-month rate was flat at 0%. This is the smallest increase since January 2021, and it was far better than the market’s 0.2% forecast.
$HOME This batch of data directly knocks down rate-hike expectations for the Federal Reserve. Based on model calculations, as long as the core monthly rate stays below 0.15%, gold holding above 4100 is basically secure. Even if this time it merely comes in at the same level, it is still a solid positive.
However, oil prices are still causing disturbances, and geopolitical variables in July are too uncertain. Next month’s CPI data is likely not to look great either. In the short term, gold is still stuck in a choppy, back-and-forth period of consolidation. Are you still just guessing whether gold will surge higher directly?
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