debatduasisi

Raise rates in December or hold? The Fed hasn’t given an answer — and the market is split right down the middle.

View A — hike: October jobs data came in hot, with +165,000 new jobs vs. a consensus of 65,000 (BLS via Reuters, Nov. 6), unemployment fell to 4.1%, and PCE inflation is still at 3.6%. Two FOMC members already called for a hike at the Oct. 28 meeting, and Chair Warsh hasn’t ruled out December. Markets put the odds of a hike at around 67–77%.

View B — hold: those odds have actually fallen from around 84% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch — the market isn’t becoming more confident. The Nasdaq just had its worst day since April 2025, and October CPI, due Tuesday, Nov. 10, could cool everything down if the numbers are mild. The September hike hasn’t fully worked its way through the real economy yet, either.

My lean: a hike is still more likely — the data is too hot to ignore. But I’d change my mind if CPI is mild on Nov. 10: the odds could fall quickly, giving BTC — now around $75,764, holding just above its 50-week average at $75,552 — room to breathe again. On the other hand, hot CPI would lock in a hike and put that level to the test.

Reply in the comments: A or B — and your strongest reason.

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#DebatDuaSisi #TheFed #SukuBunga $BTC

Ark Invest buys COIN as shares plunge 9.69% — does the institution see a bottom, or is it just routine rebalancing?

The facts: Ark bought 17,806 COIN shares worth $2.44 million through ARKK on Thursday (Nov. 5), the same day COIN closed at $136.82. That same day, Ark sold Bullish ($2.27 million) and Bitmine ($2.28 million), while adding to its positions in Nvidia, AMD, and SpaceX. Source: Ark trade disclosures, reported by The Block on Nov. 5 and TradersUnion on Nov. 6. Context: BTC is still around $75,500 as of midday today, near its post-drop low from Thursday.

View A: this is conviction buying — Cathie Wood is adding to her position in the largest U.S. crypto exchange just as the Nasdaq posts its worst day since April 2025, and COIN has just reported a solid Q3.

View B: this is routine active ETF management — Ark adjusts its positions almost every day, $2.44 million is a small amount, and selling Bullish/Bitmine on the same day suggests this is rotation, not a one-way bet.

I lean toward B until there’s follow-through — one day of buying doesn’t prove a thesis. I’d change my view if Ark adds more COIN in the next session or buys up other crypto stocks too.

Reply in the comments: A or B — and your strongest reason.

This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.

#DebatDuaSisi #Coinbase #ArkInvest