charliemunger

There’s a friend by my side who lives in a way that everyone envies.

Every day he sleeps at ten and wakes up at six. His phone is always on silent, and he only replies to WeChat messages the next day. It’s not that he’s aloof—there just genuinely isn’t anyone who reaches out to him. His parents’ retirement pensions are enough to get by, and he’s healthy and strong. When he calls occasionally, he only asks, “Have you been happy lately?” He doesn’t pressure him to marry or have kids.

His wife is a university classmate. Their biggest weekend pleasure is going to the farmers’ market to buy groceries, then coming home to experiment with new recipes.

The last time I invited him for a drink, he said something that still makes me feel jealous even now: “My biggest trouble in this life is not knowing what I’m supposed to worry about.”

That’s when I realized that the best kind of good fortune isn’t about being wildly wealthy. It’s about having no one bothering you, nothing disrupting you, enough security at home, someone in your life, and no health problems. This kind of “boredom”—this is a luxury that most people can’t even begin to ask for.

#价值投资 #CharlieMunger

In 2023, Shenchuangtou said this: “From now on, our investment strategy is just one—whatever the country needs, we invest in what the country needs.”

At the time, my inner OS was: “What? Are you for real? This is so blunt.”

Looking back now, man… you were the one who saw clearly.

In the years I worked in VC, I saw too many projects die along the line of “the market needs it, but policy doesn’t.” Double reduction in education? That killed a batch. E-cigarette regulation? That killed another batch. Blockchain token issuance? They simply took them away. The ones that survived weren’t necessarily the strongest technically—they were the ones that matched national needs the most.

Now, with first-tier market money so tight, Shenchuangtou actually has ample ammunition. It’s not that they’re just that good at fundraising—years ago, they adjusted their positions toward sectors where policy isn’t short on money, like semiconductors, new energy, and defense. They weren’t chasing the wind; they stood where the wind was going to blow.

Munger said, think the other way around. The hardest part of investing isn’t picking the right thing—it’s avoiding the places that will kill you. In China, the biggest β in investing isn’t consumer upgrade or technological breakthroughs; it’s the policy direction. You can’t see it or touch it, but it’s more real than any candlestick chart.

Back then, people laughed at them as “the national team.” Now I realize they were holding the most valuable trump card—certainty. When market money is tight, certainty itself becomes excess returns.
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