bitcoin21weekmovingaverage75k

📉 Bitcoin Still Stuck: 3 Key Metrics Holding It Back

Bear market not over yet | $82K level critical | BTC vs S&P 500 👀

📰 Analyst View: Bear Market Persists
🔸Despite a 10%+ bounce from the multi-year low under $58K, Ali Martinez says BTC is still bear-dominated.
🔸Ted Pillows adds BTC + S&P 500 could see more losses, but BTC should outperform long-term. For now: S&P +10% YTD vs BTC -27% YTD 📊

⚠️ The 3 Missing Pieces for a Bull FlipPer Martinez, BTC needs 3 on-chain signals to confirm a trend reversal:
1️⃣ aSOPR - Profit vs Loss Selling
🔸Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio measures if holders sell at profit or loss.
🔸Currently below 1 = most selling at a loss. Bull signal: aSOPR crosses back above 1
2️⃣ Puell Multiple - Miner Health
🔸Tracks miner profitability: daily BTC issuance value / 365-day MA.
Currently showing income stress like during the miner walkouts earlier this year.
🔸Bull signal: Puell breaks above zero-line
3️⃣ Reserve Risk Multiple - Long-Term Holder Confidence
🔸Shows conviction of HODLers vs price.
Also below 1 right now.
🔸Bull signal: Confirmed breakout above zero-line
🔸Martinez: Need aSOPR flip first, then Puell + Reserve Risk breakouts to validate a new bull market 🚀

💰 $82,000: The Trend-Changer Level
🔸Michaël van de Poppe highlights $82K as key.
🔸Why: The 50-week Moving Average sits there. Historically major resistance — BTC only exited the last bear after reclaiming it.
🔸Path: Break 21-week MA ∼$75K first, then target the 50-week MA at $82K.

⚖️ Bottom Line
🔸Structure is still bearish until those 3 metrics flip.
🔸$75K → $82K are the next hurdles. Lose them and more downside likely. Clear them with volume and the bear thesis breaks 📈

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$BTC