601398

📌 The A-share market is once again at the point where it’s time to “hold back and unleash a big move”

🍖 Qiaoba said:
This news says the A-share market is once again at the time to “hold back and unleash a big move.” Considering that the Shanghai Composite is down about 3% today and the ChiNext is down around 7%, with more than 5,000 stocks falling and total market capitalization evaporating by over 4.5 trillion, it feels quite like the consolidation phase after panic selling in the crypto market.

From the analogy, this sell-off in A-shares is somewhat similar to the 26% crash in the South Korean stock market that pushed it into a bear market. In both cases, a rate-hike shock from outside hit technology stocks. But in A-shares, power and banking sectors have held up against the trend, which suggests investors are seeking safety. I’m relatively optimistic about the banking sector—for example, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398). There’s a logic of market support in the capital flows, and its performance is also stable. But the risk is that if the broader market continues to fall sharply, banks could also sell off.

Compared with the crypto world, it’s like the situation after Bitcoin drops sharply, when Ethereum tends to outperform and hold up better. When choosing coins, you need to look at fundamentals. For same-category comparisons, within banks, China Merchants Bank (600036) has more upside and elasticity than Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, but it also has higher volatility—you need to consider your own style.

#601398 #600036 #A股

📌 Why did the 6-week 4000-point defense battle shrink into an annual moving average defense battle? What do you rely on to hold the annual moving average?

🍖 Chopper says:
This article is essentially about the Shanghai Composite Index (000001.SH). What many people were worried about before—4000 points—has now fallen to the vicinity of the annual moving average (roughly around 3000). As retail investors, this directly affects the level of unrealized losses in our accounts.

The logic is simple: if the index can’t even defend the annual moving average, many fund-heavy holdings and sector/industry ETFs may continue to drift lower. For example, heavyweight stocks like China Merchants Bank (600036) have recently looked rather weak. However, viewed from another angle, many people are already lying flat (in terms of investment posture) now. That could mean there’s an opportunity to build positions gradually in broad-market indices’ ranges (such as the CSI 300 ETF), so there’s no need to be overly pessimistic.

Risk warning: The “defense of the annual moving average” is often a grind—don’t rush to go all-in and bottom-fish. If it breaks down further, there may still be about 10% downside room. Compare within the banking sector: China Merchants Bank is currently down more than Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398). The reason is that the former is more influenced by foreign investors and institutional sentiment, while the latter is more defensive.

#000001 #600036 #601398 #A股