Contract Quant Briefing #116๏ฝBullishness is still strong, but the higher we go the harder it feels to chaseโIโd rather wait for a pullback and confirmation
First, letโs get the order book straight: the overall trend is still bullish, not a sudden reversal. However, in the short list, the first few names have already gained 20%+ within a few days, and theyโre no longer close to the short-term moving averages. Chasing at this level usually doesnโt have good odds. Funding rates are mostly not expensive, and even slightly negativeโthis suggests itโs not just long overcrowding getting blown out at the top. More like an acceleration phase within a strong move. So Iโm not in a hurry to flip short on direction, but on execution I will replace โchase the breakoutโ with โwait for confirmation.โ
Top Candidates
1) DODOX
Current price around 0.02087, up about +28.6% today. In the next 6 hours, it still has roughly +10% left. Itโs about 6.8% away from the 20 MA. The 1-hour open interest is still rising and the funding is slightly negative; momentum hasnโt completely died yet, but it no longer looks like a low-level launch.
Observation zone: 0.0198โ0.0205 (pullback digestion area; closer to the short MAs feels better)
Trigger condition: after the pullback, it stabilizes within the observation zone, the 1-hour candle reclaims above 0.02015, and volume/momentum doesnโt collapse
Invalidation condition: a valid drop below 0.0192, or the pullback immediately turns into a bearish slide with a volume breakdown
Iโd rather wait for it to come back into the observation zone before watching closely. At this price, I donโt want to buy by chasing.
2) ZAMA
Current price around 0.04875, up about +22.9% today. 6 hours +12%. Roughly 9.5% away from the 20 MAโmore โsparklyโ than DODOX. The 1-hour open interest is surging hard, with higher short-term heat, and itโs also easier for it to sweep up and down.
Observation zone: 0.0466โ0.0480
Trigger condition: after pulling back to the observation zone, it stops falling; then it stands back above 0.0473โideally with decreasing volume as it stabilizes rather than continuing a straight-line rally
Invalidation condition: breaks below 0.0454, or a high-to-low reversal that breaks the 1-hour structure
I place this coin after DODOX: itโs hotโtruly hotโbut the location is more selective. If I miss it, I miss it; I wonโt buy at the wrong price just to compensate.
Secondary to watch: AKE โ the surge and distance from the MA are more restrained, but the 1-hour open interest is dropping, more like a follower impulse. Not expanding on it nowโno chase.
Risk Warning
A pullback from a high doesnโt mean it will definitely rally again. False breakouts and stop-sweeps are common. Only trade the plan-based triggers, strictly control position size and leverage. If it fails, exit decisivelyโdonโt argue with the market.
Data as of 07-23 09:16 (UTC+8). Intraday changes are fastโuse live market data as the reference.
In one sentence: a sideways continuation can be traded, but my stance today is very clearโI only buy pullback confirmation, not half-in-the-air acceleration.