025

Trading Journal #025

Today, when I opened the board, BTC was at 78048.52000000, but the trending searches were being taken over by SAFE, ARB, PONS, and SKR. I couldn’t help thinking: the smaller the coin that’s hot, the more reason to wait first and let BTC give direction.

Intraday price: BTC 78048.52000000

My choice: wait. The trigger condition is for BTC to stabilize around this price level, and for the hot coins’ sharp spikes not to immediately throw off my judgment. Before that condition appears, I won’t chase a short-term high in SAFE, ARB, PONS, or SKR. I also won’t change my rules on the fly just because a new name appears on the trending list, nor will I treat one fast wick as a trend.

The easiest thing to get led astray by while watching the charts is the order of events. First you see the percentage gain, then you go find reasons for the gain; first you see the trending list, then you treat the trend as direction. The hype today is indeed concentrated on a few names, but the heat doesn’t tell me how far they can still go next. What an ordinary trader needs to handle isn’t “which one is the strongest,” but whether you can explain clearly what phenomenon must appear before you’re allowed to change your view. If you can’t explain it, don’t move.

BTC 78048.52000000 isn’t a pretty number, and it doesn’t give me the answer. It’s simply the reference point for today. When the price is near it, I’ll check whether volatility is tightening and whether the rebounds are continuous. If the market still needs a few hot coins rotating to pull everyone’s attention, then the cost of waiting is only missing a bit of stimulation—whereas the cost of chasing the wrong direction is much harder to clean up. Without confirmation, I won’t treat emotions as a trigger.

I also leave an exit for this choice. Waiting isn’t pushing my judgment indefinitely into the future—it’s writing the verification conditions down on paper. When I review tomorrow morning, I’ll ask just one question: has BTC completed an upward breakout, and can that breakout be maintained through the time of the review? If not, today’s waiting can’t be dressed up as “almost.” It’s only that the conditions didn’t show up, so there’s no reason to change the choice early.

Next-day review: Tomorrow at 09:30, observe whether BTC breaks above 78048.52000000. Only if it breaks out and holds through the time of the review will this waiting judgment count as valid. If the breakout can’t be maintained, it’s invalid.

THE CRYPTO WAR CHRONICLES — BATTLE REPORT #025 — $ETH
Ethereum just woke up, but the real question is whether this is the start of a bigger move or simply a violent bounce from the lows.
Looking at the 3D chart, what catches my attention is the sudden push from the $1,500 area toward $2,300+. That kind of move can attract buyers fast, but it can also punish anyone who enters after the candle has already run. I’d rather watch the next battle than chase the current one.
The first lesson here is simple: a strong green candle is not confirmation by itself. I want to see whether ETH can hold above the breakout area and turn previous resistance into support.
🏹 Battlefield Levels:
$1,980 — first support
$2,316 — current battlefield
$2,592 — major resistance
$3,205 — next upside target
Trade Setup
Entry: $2,150–$2,300
Stop-Loss: $1,950
Take-Profit: $2,590 / $2,850 / $3,200

I’m not interested in predicting the exact top. I’m interested in watching how price behaves when it reaches the next resistance. If ETH breaks $2,592 with strong volume and holds it, the battlefield could open much higher.
The question is: Is ETH starting a real trend reversal, or are we just witnessing another relief rally?

Follow KAYI — THE CHART WARRIOR for the next battle report. 🗡️

$ETH #Ethereum #KayiCrypto #BinanceSquare