This Thursday's rebound in US stocks has got me taking a step back to analyze things over the past couple of days.

Let me advise you not to FOMO too soon.

Intel shot up more than 20% in a single day.

A lot of folks are treating this as a mindless buy signal driven by good news.

But if you flip through the recent trends of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, you'll see that the so-called semiconductor boom

is no longer a broad rally.

The market is now showing divergence: those with real orders on the books (like Intel's recent deal with Apple for foundry services) are soaring like they've taken some performance-enhancing drugs, while those merely spinning AI stories, but facing overcapacity in the air semiconductor sector, will drop like a rock if their earnings reports miss expectations.

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>>> My personal trading logic is:

Don’t get lazy with “sector theory.”

The market is extremely pragmatic right now, only buying for “visible orders.”

Intel's move into foundry (IFS) is essentially taking market share from TSMC; this is real competition for share,
far sturdier logic than just pure compute power leasing.

Beware of expectation gaps.

The market has already priced in Fed rate cut expectations to a threshold.

Any hawkish comments from here on out could serve as an excuse to dump.

This current rebound feels more like profit-taking and portfolio adjustments before earnings season, rather than the trumpet call for a new bull market.

>>> My positioning attitude:

I've fragmented my semiconductor positions even more.

I continue to hold undervalued leaders in core positions.

But I’ll only make satellite bets in segments with clear catalysts, like securing major orders.

In this volatile environment, the biggest no-no for a trader is going all-in on a sector bet.

Scale your strategy down to the dimensions of earnings reports and supply chain validations to avoid those false pumps.

In the coming days, I’ll be watching for confirmations on Intel's foundry business, as well as validation of orders for more AI infrastructure stocks.

Only when the logic can be backed up with the books should you consider upping your stake.
#美股休市 #半导体