The U.S. Department of Defense plans to ban military personnel from using "insider information" to bet on prediction markets
According to CNN, a new ban targeting military personnel was added to the defense policy bill draft released by the House Armed Services Committee last week, aimed at prohibiting U.S. military members from betting on global events via prediction markets.
This move stems from a case involving a special forces soldier who used classified internal information to make illegal bets related to the capture of Maduro, profiting $400,000 in the process.
The ban intends to require Defense Secretary Hegseth to draft regulations prohibiting armed forces members and civilian employees of the Department of Defense from participating in prediction market trades when in possession of "non-public information," and mandates clear penalties for violations.
It's worth noting that, despite the rising popularity of prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket in recent years, the corresponding regulatory framework has lagged behind.
However, even though current laws prohibit U.S. users from participating in war-related prediction markets, Polymarket's offshore site remains accessible via VPN and offers dozens of war-related markets.
This regulatory loophole led to the Maduro case being the first federal lawsuit for insider trading in prediction markets, where the involved soldier illegally profited $400,000 through the platform.
Industry insiders point out that while current laws already prohibit insider trading using confidential information, the newly revised legislation expands the ban to include all "non-public information," covering undisclosed non-confidential information, including outcomes of defense contracts.
Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has also pledged to crack down on insider trading, indicating that the government has begun taking tangible action, although bipartisan concerns remain about the agency's staffing issues.
In summary, the proposed industry ban by the Department of Defense aligns with the general trend among government agencies toward stricter regulation of prediction markets. This is another push following measures introduced by the Senate, some Congress members, and governors of California and Illinois.
The Defense Department's new bill draft also further broadens the regulatory scope, forming a comprehensive control system from federal to local levels, reflecting the government's increasing concern over the potential risks of prediction markets.
#预测市场
According to CNN, a new ban targeting military personnel was added to the defense policy bill draft released by the House Armed Services Committee last week, aimed at prohibiting U.S. military members from betting on global events via prediction markets.
This move stems from a case involving a special forces soldier who used classified internal information to make illegal bets related to the capture of Maduro, profiting $400,000 in the process.
The ban intends to require Defense Secretary Hegseth to draft regulations prohibiting armed forces members and civilian employees of the Department of Defense from participating in prediction market trades when in possession of "non-public information," and mandates clear penalties for violations.
It's worth noting that, despite the rising popularity of prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket in recent years, the corresponding regulatory framework has lagged behind.
However, even though current laws prohibit U.S. users from participating in war-related prediction markets, Polymarket's offshore site remains accessible via VPN and offers dozens of war-related markets.
This regulatory loophole led to the Maduro case being the first federal lawsuit for insider trading in prediction markets, where the involved soldier illegally profited $400,000 through the platform.
Industry insiders point out that while current laws already prohibit insider trading using confidential information, the newly revised legislation expands the ban to include all "non-public information," covering undisclosed non-confidential information, including outcomes of defense contracts.
Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has also pledged to crack down on insider trading, indicating that the government has begun taking tangible action, although bipartisan concerns remain about the agency's staffing issues.
In summary, the proposed industry ban by the Department of Defense aligns with the general trend among government agencies toward stricter regulation of prediction markets. This is another push following measures introduced by the Senate, some Congress members, and governors of California and Illinois.
The Defense Department's new bill draft also further broadens the regulatory scope, forming a comprehensive control system from federal to local levels, reflecting the government's increasing concern over the potential risks of prediction markets.
#预测市场