夏木KRIS

$57,800
Perhaps this is the bottom of the current $BTC Bitcoin bear market

Looking back now, I’m increasingly convinced that around $57,800 may be the true bottom of this BTC bear market.
At the end of June, Bitcoin was driven down to about $57,800, setting a new 21-month low. At the time, the environment was actually very poor: the Fed was leaning hawkish, and ETF flows were continuing to bleed out. Just the withdrawals in June alone totaled tens of billions of dollars, and market sentiment had already been crushed into extreme pessimism.

But with so many bearish factors, BTC still didn’t keep collapsing.
Now Bitcoin has rebounded all the way from $57,800. Today, it even briefly broke above $79,000—an upside rally of more than 36% from the lows. At the same time, ETF capital has started flowing back in again, and regulatory expectations are beginning to turn more favorable.

So now I’m going to start treating $57,800 as a very important level.

The bottom of a bear market is often something that falls out—only after some time do people realize: the lowest point was already behind us long ago.

Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End

I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.

China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.

When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.

I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.

This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.

$BTC
$PAXG

The team behind $CFX has always been quick to drive up its price.

Yesterday, I posted a reminder to buy when it was just $0.052. At the current price of $0.072, that’s a gain of nearly 40%.

When funds flow into a coin like this all at once, it can see a big price jump in a short time.

Let’s see if it can break through $0.10 today. My medium-term target is still $0.25.

If you see
me writing messages about investing in $CFX

but you don't hold $CFX

then I don't want to talk to you

$CFX —this is the time to seize the opportunity!

Yesterday, when it was at $0.052, I had already posted to remind everyone that it was a good time to buy.

After news emerged about the development of a nationwide blockchain network, domestic public-chain projects could once again attract market attention. $CFX is one of the assets I’m watching closely.

My target price is $0.25, nearly five times yesterday’s price.

Of course, the policy doesn’t directly name $CFX as a beneficiary. But if this trend continues to gather momentum, I believe the current price still has plenty of room for upside.

Hurry up, get on $CFX

Good news is emerging about the development of a nationwide blockchain network, and $CFX is worth watching!

China is promoting the development of nationwide blockchain infrastructure, which could bring the concept of domestic public blockchains back into the market spotlight.
$CFX is one of the assets I’m keeping a close eye on.

When the market previously speculated on the domestic blockchain concept, CFX attracted significant investor attention. If policy news continues to gain traction this time, the market is likely to look for related assets again.

Major bullish news! Plans to build a nationwide blockchain network are underway, and $CFX may see a new wave of speculation

China plans to advance the development of a nationwide blockchain network, putting blockchain infrastructure back in the spotlight as a key area for development.

This is news worth watching for projects associated with domestic public blockchains.

As one of the public blockchain projects with Chinese roots, $CFX could attract investor attention early if the market starts speculating on this theme.

The policy does not explicitly mention CFX at this stage, but this is a direction worth keeping an eye on.

I'm planning to buy some $CFX in several batches.

OpenAI Plans to Go Public in 2027
$WLD Could Be Next Year’s Dark Horse

OpenAI has filed confidentially for an IPO, and the latest reports suggest its listing could be delayed until 2027.

I think $WLD could be one of the AI-themed coins most worth watching next year. Many people know only that WLD is connected to OpenAI founder Sam Altman, but what World actually does is verify digital identities. As AI agents become more widespread, proving that users online are real people could become an increasingly important need.

More notably, Eightco disclosed in August that it held nearly 302 million WLD and had also invested in OpenAI. Institutions have already started positioning themselves in both AI and digital identity.

Of course, WLD is not an equity token in OpenAI. A public listing would bring greater market attention, rather than directly transferring OpenAI’s valuation to WLD.

If OpenAI officially goes public next year and the AI sector returns to the market spotlight, $WLD could well have an opportunity for a re-rating.

TSMC revenue hits another record high
The earnings report on October 15 will have an even more important number to watch

TSMC's third-quarter revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, up about 50% year over year and setting another all-time record.

Revenue for September alone reached NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% year over year.

That growth rate is already remarkable, and actual third-quarter revenue also exceeded the company's earlier guidance of US$44.6 billion to US$45.8 billion.

But in the October 15 earnings report, I’m more interested in gross margin.
TSMC previously forecast a third-quarter gross margin of 65% to 67%, and an operating margin of 56% to 58%.

AI chip demand continues to grow, and capacity for advanced process nodes is tight. If gross margin also comes in above the top end of guidance, it would mean TSMC is benefiting not just from higher shipment volumes—its pricing power may also be stronger than the market expects.
The company's 2027 capital expenditure plans are also worth watching.

If the company continues to significantly increase capital spending, it would indicate that management remains confident in future AI orders, but it would also add to depreciation pressures.

$TSMB $BTC $ETH

Gold ETFs attracted $31 billion in a single quarter,
but gold prices fell 8.5%

The latest data released by the World Gold Council is well worth examining.

Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $31 billion in the third quarter, setting a quarterly record.

In September alone, net inflows reached $10 billion. Global gold ETF holdings increased by 67 tonnes to 4,256 tonnes, also setting a new record.

Yet gold fell 8.5% in September, closing the month at $4,176.

Why did gold prices fall even as investors continued buying?
In September, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose 53 basis points to 5.3%, while the U.S. Dollar Index gained about 2%.

Meanwhile, net positions held by managed funds on COMEX fell by 84 tonnes. Pressure from position reductions in the futures market offset the support from continued ETF buying.

This shows that there is a clear divergence in investment flows in the gold market right now.

Long-term investors are still increasing their gold holdings, but short-term traders, affected by high interest rates and a stronger dollar, are reducing their risk exposure.

My medium- to long-term outlook for gold has not changed much. But if U.S. Treasury yields stay above 5%, gold prices may need more time to absorb the pressure in the short term.

Rather than focusing solely on the amount of ETF inflows, it is now more important to watch how the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds moves.

$PAXG $XAU $XAUT

Oil prices climb back above $90
Inflation may be harder to control than the market expects

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is starting to deteriorate again.

According to Kpler data, only 7 cargo ships passed through the strait on October 6, the lowest level since July 23. Crude oil transit volumes fell 27% from the previous week's high.

On October 8, Brent crude rose about 4%, closing at $104.28. Currently 90

One detail is worth noting, though: Middle Eastern crude exports have not collapsed in tandem. Some supplies have already been rerouted via the Red Sea and other routes through the Gulf of Oman.

This means the rise in oil prices is not entirely due to an actual reduction in supply. Shipping risks, insurance costs, and geopolitical premiums are also playing a part.

The market had been hoping the Fed would pivot toward easing, but persistently high oil prices could put inflation under renewed pressure.

If energy prices stay high, it will be harder for the Fed to cut interest rates, creating an environment that is not particularly favorable for BTC, gold, or U.S. stocks.

$CL $BTC $ETH

The day before yesterday, $BTC fell to a low of $80,300.

The market saw another wave of panic, but I wasn’t too worried about this drop. A few sharp pullbacks are perfectly normal in a bull market, and every time prices fall, some good buying opportunities emerge again.

This time, I’ve picked three coins that held up relatively well during the downturn:
$DIA , $SOMI , $OPG

For your reference.

September FOMC minutes released
The Fed may need to raise rates one more time

The Fed’s latest September meeting minutes basically confirmed the market’s biggest concern.

In September, rates were raised by 25 basis points, bringing the interest rate to 3.75%–4.00%, but most officials believe there may be a need for further rate hikes this year.

At present, U.S. inflation is still relatively high. With rising energy prices and no clear deterioration in the economy or employment market, the Fed has little reason to rush into loosening for now.

But here’s the detail: although officials lean toward another rate hike, they did not explicitly call for immediate action in October. The market still more favors pausing in October and reconsidering a rate hike in December.

This isn’t good news for $BTC and altcoins.
Especially now that U.S. Treasury yields are at a high level and market funding costs continue to rise, for $BTC to reclaim levels above $87,000 in the short term, it will likely need more buy pressure.

$ETH

$BTC fell to around $80,300
ETF inflows have also started to change

Yesterday, BTC dipped to around $80,300, after people were discussing a breakout above $87,000 just a few days ago—now it has returned to the $80,000 level again.

The recent changes in ETF flows are especially worth paying attention to.
On October 6, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $119 million, but on October 7 they flipped directly to net outflows of about $485 million.

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT had outflows of $208 million, Fidelity’s FBTC outflows were $105 million, and ARKB saw outflows of $102 million.

That means that within just a single trading day, ETF capital showed a clear reversal.

However, a one-day ETF outflow does not necessarily mean institutions are withdrawing long-term, especially as US bond yields are rising and expectations of further rate hikes have not faded. It’s not unusual for some capital to temporarily reduce risk-asset exposure.

I still believe it’s necessary to focus on the $80,000 area.

If BTC can reclaim $83,000–$84,000, there may be room for a short-term rebound. But if $80,000 can’t hold, altcoins may also go through another round of a larger correction.
$ETH

Samsung Q3 profit exceeds 100 trillion won
AI storage demand is even stronger than expected

Samsung has just released its preliminary results for the third quarter. Operating profit is expected to reach 107.4 trillion won, up 782.5% year-on-year.

This number is incredibly staggering.

In the same period last year, it was only about 12.2 trillion won—this year, the company earned 107.4 trillion won in just one quarter, even surpassing the market’s already fairly optimistic expectations.

The main reason behind this is the demand for memory chips driven by AI.

Currently, it’s not only HBM high-bandwidth memory—traditional DRAM prices are also rising. As AI data centers continue to expand, the supply-and-demand relationship across the entire storage industry has changed significantly.

However, Samsung’s share price hasn’t surged as much as the results suggest. The market has started to consider how long increases in storage prices can continue.

This is also something I’ve been placing special emphasis on in my recent semiconductor research. AI demand is indeed still growing, but storage chips themselves are highly cyclical.

Samsung’s profits have already grown by nearly 9 times. Whether it can maintain such a high level of profitability going forward depends on storage prices and the pace of capacity expansion.

On October 29, Samsung will release a more complete set of financial results. At that time, we can further confirm the profit contributions from each business segment.

#三星Q3初步利润首破100万亿韩元
$BTC $ETH $ZEC

Yesterday, $BTC hit a low of $80,300.

The market has once again entered a round of panic.

But this time, I wasn’t too worried about the sell-off. In a bull market, several large pullbacks are normal. Each time the price drops, there are also good buying opportunities that reappear.

This time, I’m specifically highlighting three coins that showed relatively strong performance during the downswing:
$牛来 、$AT 、$OPN

BTC and most altcoins are falling, but the declines for these three are relatively limited. Some even quickly recovered their losses.

I’ve always placed a lot of importance on this kind of relative strength. When the market is rising, many coins can go up—but when the market is broadly in decline, the coins that can still hold their prices are actually worth paying closer attention to.

Netflix turned the SBF collapse that once rocked the crypto world into a limited series, launching on November 19.

Another chance to buy the dip?

$UNI 、 $QNT 、 $ZEC
What else is worth buying?