Mohamed A. El-Erian Re-poster

According to figures from Bloomberg, bond yields across the globe are climbing sharply, driven primarily by developments in the United States. #economy#markets

As anticipated, yields on the US 10-year government bond have climbed significantly, with the rate now reaching 4.95%. Please refer to the CNBC chart below for the latest trend.

#economy #markets #bonds #yields

The latest US consumer price data for October surpassed projections across the board. Headline monthly inflation climbed by 0.4% against the consensus forecast of 0.3%, while core inflation reached 0.3% compared to the anticipated 0.2%.

Particularly in light of the recent remarks from Governor Waller, any discussions regarding whether the Fed might pause or raise rates by 25 basis points next month can safely be shelved. The real deliberation going forward is between a 25 bps or a 50 bps hike.

If you are curious about my take, I anticipate the central bank will ultimately settle on an increase of 25 bps.

#economy #markets #federalreserve #inflation

Both prediction markets and implied market probabilities now view a December rate hike as a near certainty, following the comments delivered earlier today by Federal Reserve Governor Waller. Take a look at the CNBC summary below for a detailed overview.

#economy #markets #federalreserve @CNBC

Public attention is naturally focused on recent updates regarding Anthropic's planned IPO, particularly the information shared in the company disclosure below.

What stands out most remarkably is the enterprise's extraordinary pace of top-line expansion. Over the nine-month period concluding in September, Anthropic generated $33.2 billion in revenue, reflecting an astounding 1,200% surge. On top of that, closing out October, the business achieved an annualized revenue run rate of $81 billion, which represents an increase of $10 billion compared to where it stood at September's end.

https://www.anthropic.com/news/roadshow-launch

#economy #markets #tech #ai #artificialintelligence #anthropic

Good morning, everyone.

Drivers are waking up to some welcome relief at the fuel pump today as we kick off an active schedule of US price data, led by the forthcoming CPI inflation report.

Global energy markets are helping pave the way this morning, with international crude benchmarks dropping an additional 2%. In current trading, Brent crude stands at $90 per barrel, while WTI has reached $85.

Meanwhile, latest figures from the AAA show that the nationwide average cost for a gallon of regular unleaded has officially slipped under $4, compared to $4.37 just one month earlier. Diesel has similarly experienced a downward shift, easing from $6.28 to an average of $6.16.

#energy #oil #economy #markets @AAA_Travel

Driven by an annualized export expansion of 35.2 percent, which comfortably surpassed the consensus estimate of 33.5 percent, China generated a trade surplus of $105 million in October. This milestone lifts the nation’s cumulative surplus for the year to date up to $1 trillion.

Based on these recent trade figures, the country appears well-positioned to outpace its record 2025 surplus of $1.2 trillion.

Although such robust momentum highlights an essential catalyst supporting the wider economic landscape, it also brings emerging challenges. In multiple crucial international markets, China is rapidly approaching peak export saturation. Consequently, the danger of facing retaliatory protectionist interventions from global trading partners has risen considerably.

#economy #markets #China #trade

Moving past basic balance-sheet calculations in national economic discussions is essential to serve both today's citizens and those of tomorrow. In that light, the emergence of an all-encompassing plan for economic expansion is a truly promising development. Naturally, the ultimate success of this initiative will depend on consistent, long-term execution.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2026/11/britain-is-finally-serious-about-growth
#growth #economy #uk #markets

Prior to today, very few would have expected to see the Nasdaq climb 2.4% on the same day Nvidia fell 5.6%, particularly given the chipmaker's influential position within the technology sector. This rare divergence reflects robust dip-buying interest across the broader industry, alongside growing market confidence that Nvidia’s current challenges will remain isolated.

#economy #markets @nvidia #nvidia #tech

Before today, seeing the Nasdaq advance by 2.4% while Nvidia dropped 5.8% would have seemed almost unthinkable, particularly given how central the chipmaker is to the wider technology sector. This notable divergence points to robust dip-buying enthusiasm throughout the broader market, alongside investor confidence that the current difficulties facing Nvidia are strictly isolated.

#economy #markets @nvidia #nvidia #tech

Recent official figures offer a much clearer view into the sheer magnitude of Japan's currency interventions aimed at bolstering the yen. Operating on behalf of the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Japan channeled a total of ¥15.39 trillion, or nearly $100 billion, across the third quarter alone. The most substantial single installment of these operations came in late July, when a joint effort with the United States saw ¥7.97 trillion deployed.

These sizable actions also carried noticeable international consequences. In particular, the intervention amplified upward momentum on US Treasury yields during July and August, although this secondary effect has calmed down substantially in the time since.

#economy #markets #japan #fx #yen #currency #bonds #yields

It was a pleasure joining Becky on Squawk Box this morning for such an engaging and thoughtful discussion. The full segment is available to watch here:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/11/09/allianzs-mohamed-el-erian-nvidia-has-systemic-importance-in-the-tech-ecosystem.html

@BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC @CNBC #economy #markets

A headline from CNBC underscores a notable trend in China: the divide between producer and consumer inflation is expanding further, both in raw figures and compared to what market watchers anticipated. On the production side, PPI inflation accelerated to 5.7%, representing the highest mark in more than four years and surpassing the 5.3% consensus forecast. At the same time, consumer prices told a different story, as CPI inflation softened to 0.7% to miss the 0.8% consensus expectation. Far from being a reflection of isolated, short-term occurrences, this growing gap highlights ongoing structural softness within the country's domestic consumer demand.

#economy #inflation #China #markets

Following the midterm elections, Democrats are poised to assume command of Congress, prompting widespread interest in how they plan to exercise their newfound leverage during a period of notable market fluctuation.

In my latest piece for the FT, I outline four primary areas worth monitoring:
https://www.ft.com/content/6a69328b-3acb-4a74-a909-92249ad959e4?syn-25a6b1a6=1

#economy #markets @FT #elections #midterms

Even as Nvidia works to ease broader concerns, the situation involves multiple dimensions, starting with its awkward timing. For instance, the company holds systemic significance across the tech landscape, financial markets, and the macro economy. In addition, investors often find it difficult to quantify key-person dependencies alongside governance risks, while national security factors and geopolitical developments remain in constant motion.

@nvidia #nvidia #markets #tech #ai #artificialintelligence #economy

Handling this issue will be quite a challenge for the board of directors. A major key-man risk is evident here, and it seems unlikely that market valuations have fully factored it into the equation. @FT @nvidia #nvidia #markets

Being a devoted supporter of the Jets remains an undeniably painful experience. Even with the full expectation that the team would fall to the Chiefs today, witnessing the anticipated defeat does not make it any less disheartening. In an effort to rescue what is left of this Sunday, attention is now turning to the Giants matchup.

@nyjets @Chiefs #jets @Giants #jets @NFL

According to reporting from Bloomberg regarding corporate earnings discussions across S&P 500 firms, executives cited the terms inflation or inflationary 820 times over the course of October. This represents the greatest monthly volume of such mentions since February 2024.

#economy #markets #inflation

Recent news coverage may have centered on the swings in technology shares over the past week, but this WSJ chart illustrates that companies in the energy sector actually took the hardest hit.

#economy #markets #stocks #tech #energy #ArtificialIntelligence #ai @WSJ

Investors and traders recently worked through an intense and unpredictable week shaped by strong economic figures, unease surrounding artificial intelligence, and a major political realignment in the United States. Although the technology sector and crude oil experienced sharp, turbulent re-evaluations, the wider credit market remained steady, alongside unwavering analyst faith in economic prospects. These developments unfold just as market participants brace for an upcoming schedule dense with critical data releases, chief among them the latest report on US inflation.

You can read the complete breakdown by visiting either link below:
https://mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-51a
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-note-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-snhlc

#economy #markets