交易员刺客

ETH and BTC have reached resistance during this rebound!
If the Fed continues raising rates, they could fall back to 76,000. If it signals no more hikes or hints at rate cuts, they could rise to 87,000. Here’s the analysis:
Tomorrow night at 9:30, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will be the real test.

Let’s look at the latest preliminary data: U.S. private-sector employment added 86,000 jobs in October according to ADP, above expectations. The ISM services employment index also rose for a second straight month, reaching 51.4. This suggests the labor market still has some resilience. The market now generally expects 60,000 jobs to be added in tomorrow night’s nonfarm payrolls report, up from just 29,000 in the previous report, with unemployment at 4.2%. These figures may look simple, but they’ll directly influence whether the Fed raises rates in December.

The macroeconomic picture is awkward: inflation hasn’t been fully tamed, and the Fed is holding steady. If tomorrow night’s payrolls data greatly exceed expectations, that would suggest the economy is running too hot, and expectations of a December rate hike could shoot up immediately—a major blow to risk assets like BTC and ETH. If the data comes in well below expectations, recession fears could spread, and money could flee anyway. Put simply, volatility is likely to rise regardless of whether the data is good or bad.

BTC and ETH are both up slightly at the moment, with the market holding its breath as it awaits the results. If you’re holding short positions opened at higher levels, you can stay the course, but if you’re not already in a position, don’t gamble on a one-way move based on the data. Wait until the data is fully released and the market has digested it, then look for opportunities in the direction of the trend. The order book will almost certainly be very thin tomorrow night, so watch out for sudden wicks and make sure you have stop-losses in place. $BTC #非农数据 $BTC $ETH

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Challenge: 10,000u to 100,000u
Day 9
Currently at 18,888u
Most trades are on BTC $BTC
Sticking to the rules very closely
Live copy trading is also now available
Starting next week, I'll share trade signals live in the livestream

Tonight at 21:30, the U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report will be released. It is the final major macro event of the week, and the first real inflection point for BTC since its flash crash from above 81,000 to around 75,500.

What the market is betting on

The consensus forecast for nonfarm payroll growth is around 65,000, with estimates ranging from 35,000 to 125,000—a huge divergence. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% month over month, up from 0.1%. ADP private-sector employment already delivered a hotter-than-expected signal at 86,000, but some economists warn that October’s seasonal adjustment factors could weigh on the data, creating a risk of a downside surprise. The core issue isn’t the numbers themselves, but whether this report will reignite bets on a December rate hike—and thus determine whether risk assets get a breather or take another hit.

Where the market stands now

After tumbling on heavy volume from 81,196 to 75,208, BTC found support and staged a modest rebound. It is currently trading around 75,900. The 50-week SMA, at approximately 75,733, has been breached, putting this long-term trendline to the test. Below, 75,208 is the overnight low and the first line of defense in the short term; 72,000 to 73,000 is the widely recognized bull-bear dividing line, and a decisive break below it would turn the medium-term structure bearish. Overhead, 76,897 is resistance at the EMA7, while 78,000 is the level that would confirm a structural recovery. Funding rates have fallen to a nine-month low of -0.0044%, meaning shorts are starting to pay to hold their positions, but the retail long-short ratio remains tilted toward longs, leaving the positioning structure far from clean.

Three possible scenarios

Bearish scenario (payroll growth below 50,000, unemployment at 4.2% or higher): The dollar weakens, giving risk assets a short-term breather. BTC would most likely open lower and then rise; if 75,208 holds, the next target is 76,897, with a full recovery potentially reaching 77,756. But “a breather doesn’t mean a reversal.” If monthly wage growth remains at 0.3%, the rebound may not last.

Hotter-than-expected scenario (payroll growth above 80,000, monthly wage growth at 0.3%): Rate-hike expectations heat up again. BTC first plunges to sweep liquidity, with around 74,800 as the first area to watch for support; an extreme wick could reach 74,000 to 74,500. The key question is whether it can V-recover after the wick. A high-volume break below 72,000 would be the real signal of a trend reversal.

Middle-ground scenario (between 50,000 and 70,000): The most painful outcome. Neither direction is extreme enough, so the market may churn between 75,200 and 76,800, taking out both longs and shorts and offering the worst risk-reward for chasing trades. #非农就业数据 $BTC

You only see Ao Ying making 1 million a day
Xingchen losing 3 million a day
Can you handle that?
You’re better off focusing on building up your initial capital
My compounding strategy
is suitable for most ordinary people$BTC

✈️Singapore
Wait for me to come home
I'll see everyone soon

Everyone’s talking about Aoying going from -600,000 to +1,000,000.
Actually, what I want to say is:
Aoying is awesome—that’s beyond question.
But it’s not suitable for most people.
How many people can handle those swings?
It’s like playing Texas Hold’em:
If you only have 1,000,000, can you play well with 10,000/20,000 blinds?
In short:
Don’t fall for survivorship bias.
What suits you is what’s best. 👍🏻#熬鹰 $BTC

You’re probably too scared to add more now, right? I’m going public with my long setup!

Guys, Bitcoin has plunged from 81,000 all the way down to 75,900. The chart looks genuinely scary, but I’m actually getting excited. This panic sell-off has opened up some room. I’m planning to place a limit order to go long at 72,222. Here’s why:

First, strong technical support. After this thousand-point-plus crash, the 72,000–73,000 range below is a major accumulation zone and a strong psychological line of defense. In a sharp sell-off like this, once price hits a strong support zone, a fierce technical rebound often follows. 72,222 sits right near the upper edge of the support zone, and the repeated twos also give it a kind of superstitious psychological appeal as a floor.

Second, the risk-to-reward ratio is excellent. If you enter a long here, the invalidation point is very clear: set your stop-loss below 71,000 and the risk is manageable. A rebound to the 75,000–76,000 area would give you a risk-to-reward ratio of more than 3:1. Buying the dip on the way down means picking up the bloodied coins dumped by panic sellers.

Third, macroeconomic bad news has already been priced in. The nonfarm payrolls report comes out tonight, and the market has clearly plunged this far in anticipation of all kinds of bad news. Once the data actually comes out, whether it’s good or bad, the bad news may already be fully priced in and turn into a positive catalyst. There’s a good chance buyers will step in to catch the rebound.

This is all about patience now. Place a limit order on the way down, but don’t go all in at once! Put on an initial position at 72,222; if there’s a wick down to 71,500, add more. And to be absolutely clear: if price breaks below 71,000, close the position without hesitation—do not hold and hope! Get your ammo ready and wait for the wick to hit. $BTC #BTC走势分析 #美股走弱，加密货币市场普遍承压

Did the U.S. go bankrupt? Was the last time during the pandemic?

Thanks to everyone in the chat for your trust! I’ve held firm on my short for 30 hours and made 9 trades for profit! The price is currently down 2,300 points!

Here’s why it’s falling:

Yesterday, Bitcoin surged above 81,000, and lots of people were calling for it to go straight to 100,000. But I went against the move and opened a short at 80,600. The reason is simple: this rally was driven entirely by election-related optimism coming to fruition and forced buying from short liquidations. There was no spot-market money supporting the price. Above 81,000 was a classic false breakout designed to lure in buyers. The rally clearly ran out of steam near 81,300 and turned back down. Entering at 80,600 now means we have confirmation that selling pressure overhead is extremely heavy.

On top of that, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data comes out tomorrow night. Big money won’t push prices higher right before a major macroeconomic test; most likely, they’ll take profits and play it safe. This rally has trapped plenty of bulls who chased the price from lower levels. As soon as the market pulls back, stop-loss orders will cascade and trigger a sell-off.

Shorting at this level offers an excellent risk-reward ratio. Just place your stop above 81,500. The first downside target is the support around 78,000. Remember, this trade is about catching a pullback as macro optimism fades and the short squeeze runs out of steam. Make sure you use a stop-loss, and don’t let a losing position run! $BTC #BTC走势分析

Learned a lot
Provide more value to users in the future

On my eighth day at Binance, I was invited to learn about Binance products
Thanks, Binance, for your hospitality
The good news is,
I can start livestreaming gradually the day after tomorrow

SanDisk hasn’t bottomed out! There’s still 15% downside!
But I’m not planning to short it!
Getting ready to go long! Publicly opening a long position at $SNDK

The core thesis behind this SanDisk long at 861 is a recovery in risk-reward after a deep pullback, not chasing a trend. At the current price of around $1,037, there’s still a considerable gap to 861. This means the trade is essentially betting on a reversion to the mean after extreme panic, provided the position size and stop-loss are kept under control.

Why 861 is worth a try

Technically, the stock has entered oversold territory. SanDisk has plunged from its September high of $1,914, with the RSI briefly hitting 26.61—deeply oversold—and the price deviating sharply from all major moving averages. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is around $937, the first major technical support that many market participants are watching. At 861, the price is already below that level, making it a chance to buy at a discount after an already technically oversold decline. More importantly, community analysis has pointed to the $750–$850 area as the institutional cost basis zone. Institutions may be more inclined to accumulate shares at a floating loss in this area and stage sharp rallies to maintain the structure. 861 sits right at the upper end of this range.

The fundamentals haven’t collapsed; the market is just de-rating the stock. SanDisk’s latest earnings report showed revenue of $11 billion, up 23% quarter over quarter, and net income of $8 billion. Data center demand is still accelerating. Goldman Sachs explicitly expects NAND supply constraints to persist through 2027, with average NAND prices at Samsung and SK Hynix projected to rise 34% and 30%, respectively, next year. JPMorgan maintained its $2,250 price target and “Overweight” rating, citing continued acceleration in data center demand. SanDisk’s forward P/E is currently just 4.95, far below the sector median of 21. Earnings are rising while the share price is collapsing—this is a classic “sentiment-driven selloff” in a cyclical stock, not a refutation of the fundamentals.

There’s a key catalyst on November 19. SanDisk’s 8-for-1 stock split officially takes effect on that date. A stock split doesn’t create value in itself, but it can significantly lower the barrier to entry for retail investors. Historically, stock splits have often coincided with temporary improvements in liquidity and sentiment. If the long position at 861 is held until around the split, it includes an event-driven element. #SanDiskSharePriceGainsExtendTo11%

This is the crypto world’s get-rich-quick myth
One fake news post from Hong Kong Doll brought in $2.5 million, nearly 17 million yuan
I have to say, there are so many big players in crypto
Actually, what I wanted to say is, Hong Kong Doll seems to be getting old too...

Nonfarm payrolls are coming: Could employment data strengthen expectations for a December rate hike?

The U.S. added 86,000 private-sector jobs in October, according to ADP, above market expectations. The ISM services employment index rebounded to 51.4, remaining in expansion territory for a second consecutive month, while some employment indicators showed marginal improvement.
At 21:30 Beijing time on November 6, the U.S. will release its October nonfarm payrolls report. The market currently expects around 60,000 jobs to have been added, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%.

The nonfarm payrolls report is the most important data catalyst ahead of the Fed’s December policy meeting. CME rate pricing currently puts the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December at nearly 79%. With inflationary pressures still present and the Fed having opted to keep rates unchanged in October, this report could directly shift market expectations for a rate hike, drive volatility in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, and in turn spill over into crypto markets.

Here are three possible scenarios:
1. Nonfarm payrolls significantly beat expectations: A resilient labor market would lead markets to further price in a December rate hike. Treasury yields and the dollar would strengthen, weighing on risk assets and putting BTC and ETH at risk of a short-term pullback.
2. Nonfarm payrolls broadly meet expectations: Existing rate-hike pricing would change little, and markets would likely remain range-bound.
3. Nonfarm payrolls significantly miss expectations: A weaker labor market would lead markets to lower the odds of a rate hike and the dollar to weaken, benefiting assets such as BTC and gold. $BTC $ETH

AMD has genuinely taken off this time, delivering an absolutely explosive earnings report.

First, the key figures: Q3 revenue was $13.377 billion, up 45% year over year, and adjusted EPS was $2.09—both well above expectations. The most impressive part was the data center business, which brought in about $8.5 billion in revenue, nearly doubling year over year (up 97%) and setting a new quarterly record. The reason is clear: demand for AI computing power is extremely strong, and major tech companies are scrambling to buy AMD chips to counterbalance Nvidia.

Even more encouraging is the outlook. The company expects Q4 revenue of about $17 billion, well above market expectations. CEO Lisa Su even said the company expects revenue to grow by at least 80% year over year in 2027. This shows that AMD is extremely confident in its ability to ramp up AI chip production, secure customer orders, and capture market share. AMD has genuinely claimed a substantial slice of the enormous AI computing market.

But at the trading level, despite such strong results, AMD shares rose only 0.16%. Why? Because expectations for AI giants in the U.S. stock market were already sky-high—a classic case of “buy the expectation, sell the news.”

As for trading, absolutely do not chase the stock right at the opening. If profit-taking after the earnings report causes it to pull back after an initial surge, or even creates a sharp dip, that would be a golden opportunity to build a long-term position. In the medium term, keep a close eye on two indicators: first, whether data center profit margins can hold steady; and second, the actual shipments of the next-generation MI series chips. As long as the global shortage of AI computing power remains, AMD’s long-term investment thesis is solid. Any pullback is an opportunity to buy the dip. #AMD超预期大涨，AI叙事延续？ $AMD

Why BTC surged this time:

The midterm election results are in, with the Democrats winning both chambers. BTC didn’t plunge as the usual bearish script would suggest; instead, it broke strongly above 81,000.

This rally was driven by three factors converging:
First, the bad news was already priced in. With the Democrats controlling both chambers, future fiscal and regulatory policies will face checks and balances. Political uncertainty has been completely removed, and panic has faded.
Second, the key factor was a short squeeze. Most people expected prices to fall after the election, so a large number of short positions had been opened at higher levels, leaving the order book thin. Major players pushed prices up, triggering a short squeeze. A large part of this rally was driven by forced short covering.
Third, macro conditions briefly helped. Falling U.S. Treasury yields gave risk assets a short window to catch their breath.

Historical patterns suggest that after past midterm elections, BTC has mostly pulled back to shake out weak hands before rebounding. The declines in this cycle have been getting smaller, so the bottom may come sooner than expected.

In terms of trading, the short position opened at 79488 is now under pressure from floating losses above 81000, but you absolutely must not get carried away and chase longs at this point. Emotion-driven rallies caused by short squeezes are often followed by sharp pullbacks once the initial surge is over.

The key resistance zone to watch next is 81300 to 81500. If prices spike and then quickly retreat, forming a long upper wick, that would indicate the short-squeeze momentum is fading. The rationale for the short position would still hold, and a pullback could offer a chance to reduce losses. If prices break through on genuine volume and hold, you must strictly cut losses—never stubbornly hold on. The order book is currently very thin, making the market extremely sensitive to surprises. Manage your position size and always use a stop-loss. $BTC #BTC走势分析

I'm getting wrecked! Short position!
At least I cut the public position in half and got out with a stop-loss.
I didn't close my short.
Let me first analyze what happened.

BTC rallied above 81,000 this time. The drivers are fairly clear, but the rally lacks quality. Breaking it down, there are just three factors.

First, sentiment recovered as election uncertainty faded. The Democrats won both chambers, and Trump said he respected the result. The geopolitical escalation risk that the market had priced in—especially involving Iran—was temporarily disproven. BTC was already oversold after hitting a seven-week low, and the news gave shorts a reason to take profit while also encouraging buyers to step in at lower levels.

Second, shorts were forced to close—this was the most direct source of upward momentum. Data shows that as prices rose, around $110 million in short positions were liquidated, accounting for roughly 66% of total liquidations and creating a short-term positive feedback loop. In other words, a significant portion of the buying in this rally came from forced stop-losses, not fresh capital actively chasing longs.

Third, macro conditions briefly provided support. The U.S. Treasury announced it would double its purchases of long-term Treasuries, briefly pushing yields lower and marginally improving risk appetite. Combined with a temporary return of inflows into spot ETFs, this gave the rebound an external window of opportunity.

But one key warning should not be ignored: Bitfinex and Wintermute both explicitly noted that this rebound is being driven mainly by passive buying and derivatives flows, while active spot demand remains insufficient. The area around 81,300 is clear resistance, and selling pressure overhead could re-emerge at any time. The upper end of the expiry range implied by the options market also points to around 81,750.

Back to the short position you opened at 79,488: the price is now above 81,000, and the unrealized loss is real. But don't panic just because the word “breakout” is being thrown around. Watch two key levels: if price fails to hold above 81,000 or quickly retreats after a spike, that would suggest the short-squeeze-driven rebound is losing steam, which would actually validate the reasoning behind your short. But if price holds above 81,300 with spot buying support and volume continuing to increase, the basis for holding the short has changed, and you shouldn't skip the necessary risk-management steps.

Simply put, this is a relief rally driven by news and a short squeeze, not confirmation of a trend reversal. Chasing longs above 81,000 offers poor risk-reward. For the short position, focus on how price behaves around 81,300 in live trading—not on the unrealized-loss figure when making emotional decisions. #BTC走势分析 $BTC

Sony is set to release its Q2 earnings before the U.S. market opens. It’s currently down 1.25% in premarket trading, but 71% of the community is still betting that results will beat expectations—the market sentiment is pretty divided.

The report comes down to two key areas: gaming and music. In gaming, watch PlayStation software sales and digital content subscriptions to gauge how willing players are to spend. On the music side, streaming and publishing are cash cows that provide steady cash flow.

Be cautious with your moves. Expectations are high, but the weaker premarket share price suggests some investors are seeking safety. Don’t rush to buy ahead of the earnings report; beware of a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario. Wait for the actual figures, especially the outlook for the gaming business. If the stock sells off on sentiment before the market opens and becomes attractively valued, you could consider building a position gradually. Keep your position size under control and wait for the results to become clear before jumping on board with the trend.#索尼获准设立稳定币信托银行 $SONY