明 观

结婚400多万对，离婚200多万啊，现在离婚的这么多吗 ​​​？

As the saying goes:
When something is out of the ordinary, something fishy is surely going on!
Do you know what comes before it?

The full saying goes:
Those who lack understanding are bound to invite trouble,
When something is out of the ordinary, something fishy is surely going on,
When words don't come from the heart, there's surely something hidden,
When things get downright suspicious, there's surely a scam.

It means:
Those who don't understand reason are bound to get themselves into trouble.
When something defies common sense, beware—someone may be pulling strings.
When someone's words and actions don't match their true feelings, they're surely plotting something!

As the ancients often said:
A gentleman is ever mindful of his conduct, even when alone, and never deceives himself in private.
One should also stay wary of things that exceed one's expectations!

Beware of those who offer kindness for no reason—they're either up to no good or out to rob you!

In this world,
there is no kindness without a reason,
nor malice without a reason.
There are only motives and needs hidden beneath the surface.

These days,
the world is complicated and people's hearts are hard to read.
You can't ride a tiger or a leopard, and you can never know what's in another person's heart.

When something is out of the ordinary, something fishy is surely going on.
When someone acts out of character, watch out for a knife.
When words don't come from the heart, there's surely something hidden.

People wear many faces, and their hearts are ever-changing.
Don't say everything you know, and don't believe everything you hear.

Never harbor the desire to harm others, but never let your guard down against them!

Was Jack Ma’s speech at the Bund back then really just an impulsive move?

At the time, Ant Group’s IPO had nearly reached the final stage.

Its stock code was 688688, the offering price was 68.8 yuan, state-owned capital such as the national social security fund had come on board, four fund companies had issued products specifically for the IPO, and even successful lottery applicants had already paid for their shares.

Everything was ready. All that remained was to ring the bell.

Yet at that crucial moment, Jack Ma publicly blasted financial regulators at the Bund Finance Summit, using fierce language that sent shockwaves through the room.

Soon afterward, a draft of new rules on online micro-lending was released for public comment. Ma was summoned for a meeting, Ant’s IPO was abruptly halted, and the money paid by successful applicants was returned to them.

There’s a detail here that many people missed.

A regulatory document affecting an entire industry could not have appeared out of nowhere overnight. It would have gone through internal discussions, coordination among departments, and then a public consultation.

In other words, the relevant regulatory policies had been in the works for quite some time before the Bund speech.

So here’s the question:

Did Jack Ma know at the time that the new rules could directly undermine the basis for Ant’s IPO?

If he did, could that speech—which seemed impulsive—be explained another way?

With the IPO potentially blocked, he could simply challenge the regulators in public.

To the public, this could help portray him as someone who dared to speak the truth and was punished for it. To investors, it could also offer a convenient explanation: I did everything I could to fight for it.

A fern unfurls a little curled frond, bent like it's making an OK sign.

I was comforted by a plant.

It's ok～👌❤️

Overseas markets are roaring back before the open, while our A-shares fell for nothing again. ​​​😎😎😎

Is this what they call “killing someone and crushing their spirit”? 🤣🤣🤣

1. Today’s Market Outlook

Yesterday, the Nasdaq fell 5.52% and the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.36%, their biggest one-day declines since March 2020. All 11 sectors closed lower, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 12.25%, and the VIX closed at 28.18.

In premarket trading today, oversold tech stocks are rebounding, with Nasdaq futures up 1.5%–1.8%. Dow futures, however, are down 0.6%, as energy and financials continue to weigh on the market.

Assessment: “Divergent, range-bound trading.” The rebound is an oversold recovery, not yet a trend reversal. The nonfarm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, will determine the market’s direction.

2. Recent Hot Sectors

1. Semiconductor Equipment and Memory

• Why it’s in focus: Yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 12.25% amid broad-based selling. In premarket trading today, AMD and INTC are up about 5%, while NVDA is up 3.6%. LRCX announced a $25 billion buyback authorization, the largest in its history.

• Representative stocks: LRCX, MU, AMD

• Outlook: Watch. The stocks are rebounding, but the daily chart structure has broken down.

2. AI Data Centers and Power for Computing

• Why it’s in focus: After Democrats swept both chambers, Sanders called for a nationwide pause on data centers, and Texas’s governor-elect pledged to suspend approvals. Forty of 41 data-center ballot measures were rejected. UBS estimates this could affect about 30% of planned data-center expansion in 2028.

• Representative stocks: IREN, CRWV, NBIS

• Outlook: Bearish. The policy discount has yet to be fully priced in.

3. Online Travel and Consumer Services

• Why it’s in focus: ABNB beat earnings expectations, raised its full-year guidance, and added a $12 billion buyback, sending shares up 12% in premarket trading. By comparison, Booking and Expedia reported only 7% growth in room nights.

• Representative stocks: ABNB, EXPE

• Outlook: Bullish.

---

3. Two Selected Short-Term Trading Stocks

Stock 1: LRCX | Lam Research

• Trade direction: Long

• Rationale: Yesterday’s 16.36% drop was an unjustified sell-off caused by broad weakness in the chip sector. The $25 billion buyback authorization is about six times the value of its buybacks in a typical prior year, making it a clear capital-related catalyst. Yesterday’s opening price of 207 and high of 210 are the first resistance levels today. If the stock holds above them, the target is yesterday’s closing price of 221.

• Entry price: Plan to place a limit order at 200–203; actual execution depends on a pullback into this range. Do not chase the premarket price.

• Stop-loss: 195

• First take-profit: 214.5 (about 2.2R)

• Second take-profit: 222.5 (about 3.2R)

• Trading conditions: After the 8:30 a.m. ET nonfarm payrolls release, S&P futures must not fall below -1%; the stock must not gap directly above 208 at the open…

There’s a phrase: “An open strategy has no counter.”
It means that when someone is utterly honest,
there’s nothing anyone can do to them.
The deepest guile in this world is uprightness,
the shrewdest strategy is to treat others with sincerity,
and the highest realm is simplicity.
Scheming is like a leaky bamboo basket,
while sincerity is the river that carries the boat.
Cunning is like a spider’s web: it ensnares others,
and entangles you too.
But heartfelt sincerity is like a spring breeze,
warming everyone it touches!

$BIRB broke through the 0.12 threshold (current price: 0.12, already back below the threshold).
It just crossed the threshold and then fell back, so this move can’t be taken at face value for now. Wait for the close to confirm.
Technically, where the previous high and key moving averages are matters more than the size of this move.

On-chain tea: 0x1f25…f925 opened a $5.1 million short $BTC at 75525.05 (Hyperliquid).
One trade like that is enough to keep me trading for several lifetimes.
Jokes aside, the direction of the trade deserves far more attention than the amount. Did you stick to your stop-loss? Tell the truth in the comments.

#BTC

Looking back at the Nasdaq’s past declines, some bottomed out within days, while others lasted for months or even years. But they all eventually recovered and went on to reach new highs.

I understand the logic: when life is going well, your mindset toward trading will be better too.
But my hands have a mind of their own, so I’ll write this down first today.
Currently, $SOL is quoted at 89.39 (24h -6.96%).

#SOL

I've seen plenty of ready-made dishes, but a ready-made century-old brand? That's a first. 😎😎

On its opening day: a startup.
On its second day: a time-honored brand, one day older than yesterday.
At this rate, give the shop three years and it'll have a family tradition going back generations.

BTC · International Gold · WTI Crude Oil

This analysis is theoretical and is intended only as an aid to live trading;
market conditions are changeable, so use it as a reference alongside your own live assessment.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

I. BTC Bitcoin
Today's view: Bearish bias
Strategy: Short
Entry: 76200—76600
Hard stop loss: 77100
Take profit 1: 75300
Take profit 2: 74500
Trigger condition: A rebound enters the 76200—76600 range, with signs of resistance on the 15-minute chart (a 15-minute close does not break above 76650);
do not chase the price after a breakdown.
Invalidation condition: If the 1-hour candle closes above 77100, the strategy is immediately invalidated and the position should be exited;
if price breaks below 75208 before the order is filled, cancel the pending order and do not chase the short.
Current status: Waiting for trigger
Key levels: Support 75208 / 74968｜Resistance 76416 / 77188
Market commentary: After breaking below the 20/50-day moving averages on the daily chart, BTC fell another 6% in a single day.
75200 is today's key level; a rebound to 76200—76600 is the only reasonable area to enter a short.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

II. Gold XAU
Today's view: Range-bound with a bearish bias
Strategy: Short
Entry: 4072—4084
Hard stop loss: 4112
Take profit 1: 4012
Take profit 2: 3975
Trigger condition: A rebound enters the 4072—4084 range, with signs of resistance on the 15-minute chart (a bearish engulfing candle or a close back below 4070);
do not open new positions during the 30 minutes before or 15 minutes after the 21:30 data release.
Invalidation condition: Exit at a stop loss if the 1-hour candle closes above 4112;
if price breaks directly below 4042 before the order is filled, cancel the pending order and do not chase the short.
Current status: Waiting for trigger
Key levels: Support 4042 / 4011｜Resistance 4078 / 4102
Market commentary: After pulling back from yesterday's high of 4156, gold fell steadily for several consecutive hours to 4046.8.
An intraday rebound near 4080 offers a short opportunity; the evening's nonfarm payrolls report is the biggest variable.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

III. WTI Crude Oil
Today's view: Range-bound with a bullish bias
Strategy: Long
Entry: 90.95—91.45
Hard stop loss: 90.15
Take profit 1: 92.90
Take profit 2: 93.60
Trigger condition: A pullback into the 90.95—91.45 range shows signs of stabilizing (a 15-minute close holds above 91.00);
do not chase prices above 92.50.
Invalidation condition: Exit at a stop loss if the 1-hour candle closes below 90.15;
if price breaks below 90.44 before the order is filled, cancel the pending order.
Current status: Waiting for trigger
Key levels: Support 90.44 / 90.09｜Resistance 92.53 / 93.59…

Let's talk about cold wallets and hot wallets.
Coins are always recorded on the blockchain; a wallet only stores the private keys used to access your assets.
One thing that's easy to overlook: hot wallets are convenient, but the device holding the private key is always connected to the internet, so malware and phishing sites could potentially access it.
Before confirming a transaction with a hardware wallet, carefully check the recipient address and amount displayed on the device screen.
Many people put $BTC , which they plan to hold long-term, in a cold wallet and keep what they need for everyday use in a hot wallet. Current: 75703.09.

You'll find that anything good requires a continuous investment of time and effort to maintain—whether it's cleanliness, fitness, relationships, or a career. There's no such thing as a one-and-done solution. The moment you stop putting in the effort, it all starts to fall apart... From the moment things come into being, they begin to decay. Keeping them unchanged means going against the natural order, and it takes constant human effort.

Paw Patrol, listen up: the market index is showing an even clearer trend of the East rising and the West falling! 😎😎

Just now: A $2.1 billion infrastructure fund exposure has been brought on-chain via NGI+, and Pendle now has PT, YT, and LP markets
Something's happening—the news is stirring things up again! I'll stay impartial and make a note of it for now; if anything else happens, we'll take another look.
$PENDLE is currently at 1.682, down 7.17% on the day

Data: $AKE ｜Price above the 0.0023 level
What it means: The more frequently a price level is tested, the more significant it usually becomes in traders’ minds; however, some believe repeated tests can instead weaken the support there.
A common interpretation: Breaking through a level only means one side has the upper hand at that moment. How far the price can go afterward depends on the next key level and whether trading volume can keep up.
Several data points that corroborate one another are more reliable than looking at just one, but even more indicators still can’t provide a definitive conclusion.

News: Takenos raises an additional $7 million in seed funding
Overall, it's a good thing, but markets never move according to the news.
Whether open interest rises or falls shows how leveraged traders view it.
$BTC , 24h -5.69%