$NVDA.US Let's start with the uncomfortable part: using the conservative methods of this approach, NVDA appears to be priced for a decade of growth that no traditional discounted cash flow model can justify today. The current FCF Yield (~2.3%) is below its own 10-year Treasury (~4.9-5.0%) โ this isnโt a technical detail; itโs the market saying itโs paying for duration, not for present cash. ## 0. Actual Data Collected โ NVDA | Issuer: Domestic (10-K/10-Q) | Date: 21/Sep/2026
August payrolls strongly surprised: 162k jobs versus 55k expected, with unemployment stuck at 4.1%. That already changed the read on the U.S. labor market. Today, the CPI came out and reinforced the turnaround: the headline was in line (0.4% for the month, 3.4% in 12 months), but core came in hot, at 0.3% versus 0.2% expected, driven by services and the pass-through of the energy shock. Result: the market stopped discussing a cut and started pricing in ~85% odds that the Fed will raise by 0.25 percentage points at the 15โ16/09 meeting. The dollar and Treasuries react hawkishly, which pressures risk assets in the short term. For gold, I donโt see a reason for panic or for euphoria. Higher yields weigh on it, but central bank demand and geopolitical risk keep the floor in place. Structural: bullish. Tactical, with the FOMC knocking on the door: maintain, without adding exposure until the decision comes out. #CPIWatch $BTC
Microsoft: great business, not-so-great price. Azure grew 43% in the quarter and crossed US$100 billion in fiscal year revenue, commercial RPO rose 84% to US$678 billion, and Copilot has already surpassed 30 million paid seatsโthose operational numbers are real; itโs not just an AI narrative. But the quarterโs profit got a boost of US$3.2 billion from the investment in Anthropic, which wonโt repeat, and capex surged 69% while free cash flow fell over the same period. The stock trades near US$495, with an FCF yield around 1.8%โbelow the 10-year Treasury, which is paying almost 4.8% with no risk at all. That means the market is already pricing in several years of flawless execution. This isnโt a bad stock. Itโs an expensive one right now. If youโre going to enter, enter gradually (DCA), not all at onceโand check whether Azure can maintain its pace over the next 2 quarters before increasing your position. Not investment advice to buy or sell. Do your own analysis.$MSFTB
ETH is the only โpositive majorโ in 2026 (+40% year), while the overall market remains below where it started.**
BTC closed July near $63,000, +7% for the month โ but even so it wasnโt the best performance among the large caps. Institutional flows in 2026 are still negative by about ~$5B accumulated, a legacy of the May/June shortfall. In other words: price is rising, but institutional money hasnโt returned in the same proportion.
This supports two opposing interpretations: (1) ETH is leading the technical recovery before the rest of the market confirmsโsomething weโve already seen in the 2022 cycle; or (2) the rally is short-term liquidity without real flow backing, and more fragile than it seems.
The risk for anyone following thesis 1: if negative flows donโt reverse in August, ETHโs โleadโ could just be capital rotation, not fresh conviction entering the market.
Do you agree that ETH is leading on fundamentals, or is it just less sold than the rest?
โก๏ธ In just one quarter, the company reported about 75% of all its 2025 operating loss.
Three businesses, one single stock
๐ฐ๏ธ Starlink: main value driver, with an EBITDA margin near 64%.
๐ Space launches: operations close to breakeven, but historically volatile.
๐ค AI (xAI/X): the segment that dominates the narrative, yet it continues to expand losses.
Does the valuation make sense?
- P/E: negative - Dividends: does not pay - Implied EV/EBITDA: approximately 300xโ450x
Current multiples reflect expectations of decades of growthโnot todayโs financial results.
My take
โ Based on current fundamentals, it doesnโt look like a cheap stock.
If your thesis is to invest in SpaceXโs long-term potential, do it with discipline:
โ Limit the position to a small slice of your portfolio (2โ3%). โ Wait for the next results as a listed company. โ Track mainly the evolution of the AI segment.
โ ๏ธ Another point to watch: the insidersโ lock-up period starts being released at the end of July 2026, with the largest release expected on December 8, 2026, which could increase selling pressure.
A strong narrative doesnโt mean a cheap price. Over the long run, cash and execution are still the factors that matter most. $SPCXB
For years, NVIDIA has traded at multiple high valuations due to its strong AI growth.
For those investing with the long term in mind, a P/E below 30 could represent a much more interesting entry range, offering a more balanced relationship between price and growth potential.
This doesnโt mean the stock will automatically be a buy, but rather that the market may be pricing the company more attractively than it did during periods of euphoria.
๐ Big companies rarely stay "cheap." The trick is to wait for the right price and have patience.
๐ฌ And you? Would you buy NVIDIA with a P/E below 30, or do you believe it deserves to trade with a permanent premium? $NVDAB
The fear in the market is the discount the holder was hoping for. BTC fell 51% from the $126k ATH. Fear & Greed in 23 โ Extreme Fear. Miners operating below the cost of production. ETFs recording billions in outflows. And still: long-term holders have been accumulating +2,600 BTC per day for the last 3.5 months without stopping. They arenโt afraid. Theyโre buying everyone elseโs fear. Fixed supply. Halving done. Institutional demand migrating to cold storage โ OTC desks at an all-time low. This isnโt panic exiting. Itโs quiet accumulation moving in. A fair price isnโt bought at the top. Itโs bought when everyone else wants to leave. This is not investment advice. Itโs an observation from someone who studies the cycle. $BTC $SPCXB $NVDAB
๐ SCPX has shown strength after its launch and has already caught the market's eye. Even after this positive movement, many investors believe there's still room for a new recovery and a continuation of the bullish trend in the upcoming periods. ๐ The market is all about cycles, and projects that deliver value usually find new growth opportunities. ๐ Now it's time to watch the next moves and the project's evolution. #SCPX $SPCXB
Strategy: Patience is the Ultimate Play โThe market is showing some red today, but true holders know the secret isn't in timing the daily dipsโit's in the #StrategyBTCPurchase. ๐โก๏ธ๐ โAs the community is saying: โStop trying to outsmart the market. The noise is temporary; the asset is generational. โEmbrace the "Patience Strategy." Real gains aren't made in hours, but in the discipline of holding through the volatility. โWhen BTC is at $75k+, every percentage move feels big, but the long-term vision remains the same. Whether it's a "buy the dip" moment or a steady DCA day, stay grounded. โAre you sticking to the plan or letting the charts get to you? ๐ โ#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoStrategy #HODL #InvestingTips #Finance
๐ Crypto & the Future: Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) Did you know that real estate, government bonds, and even commodities can now be tokenized on the blockchain? Thatโs Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization โ one of the hottest trends in crypto right now. ๐น What changes? Traditional assets become digital, tradable, and divisible on a global scale. ๐น Why does it matter? Increased liquidity Access for retail investors Transparency through blockchain Strong institutional adoption (banks & funds) ๐น Opportunity or hype? RWA could bridge traditional finance and DeFi, unlocking trillions in value โ but regulation and real adoption are key. ๐ก RWA may be the missing link between crypto and traditional markets. #Crypto #Blockchain #RWA #Web3 #Investing ๐
๐ต USD1: success or failure? In recent months, USD1 has been gaining attention as a dollar-linked alternative. The promise is clear: stability, security, and protection against currency devaluation. But is it really delivering on that promise? ๐ Pros: โ๏ธ Pegged to the US dollar โ๏ธ Easy access โ๏ธ Growing market interest ๐ Cons & risks: โ ๏ธ Limited transparency at times โ ๏ธ Strong dependence on issuer trust โ ๏ธ Regulatory and liquidity risks ๐ In the end, USD1 can be a success as a hedge tool, but it can also become a headache for those who invest without fully understanding the risks. ๐ฌ Whatโs your take? Opportunity or trap? Drop your opinion below ๐๐ฅ #USD1 $USD1 #Crypto #opinion
๐ฏ Did you know you can start in DeFi with less than R$50? ๐ธ
Many people think that decentralized finance is only for those who have thousands of reais in crypto, but that's a MYTH. Today, with networks like Polygon, Base, or Arbitrum, you can:
โ Swap tokens with almost zero fees โ Earn interest with stablecoins โ Participate in DeFi protocols without being a whale โ Learn and evolve with little risk
๐ก The most important thing? Start small, but start RIGHT. You learn, test, and gradually build up.