石狐区块链

None of it is easy. Hey, Mr. Bao, if you find yourselves a capable wife, you can coast through life.

$BTC Bitcoin’s $79,000 level is currently a key support. When it breaks will determine when the test of support at $77,000 arrives.

But if it continues to hold, watch for the interest rate decision in the early hours of October 29. If the decision is not to raise rates, there is a strong possibility of another rebound later on to test the $82,000–$83,000 range.

As for the previously suggested bearish outlook from $80,000, if the price still hasn’t broken below $79,000 by the end of today, we may need to temporarily abandon the breakdown outlook and exit to manage risk.

To date, nearly $3 billion in related funds have been frozen.

The Binance team continues to work closely with law enforcement, asset issuers, blockchain intelligence firms, and industry partners to track and freeze additional related assets.

We will continue to monitor developments and share verified updates through Binance’s official channels in a timely manner.

I’ve finished writing my analysis, but the launch of $PREDICT has been delayed. What should I do—post it or not?

I’m planning to sell $PREDICT as soon as trading opens:

1. Defillama shows that predict.fun brought in $2.01 million in revenue this month, or $24 million annualized. But its market cap is already $1.3 billion, giving it a price-to-earnings ratio of 54.

2. A P/E ratio of 54 is very high. First, current revenue has been inflated by a bubble created by airdrop farmers in the community. Now that the community’s expectations have been dashed, things could get ugly from here. Second, predict.fun has already been integrated into Binance Wallet, so there aren’t many new opportunities for major growth. Its future growth potential is limited.

3. Another major reason is that the project team’s $24 million in annual earnings have nothing to do with $PREDICT . The tokenomics the team has announced don’t include a buyback-and-burn mechanism, so those profits won’t be reflected in the token price.

4. Of course, not holding long term doesn’t mean you can’t hold for a few days. But the community airdrop claim has a somewhat unusual option: “Choose to lock your tokens for one year, but you can change your mind at any time during the first month.” So I suspect the team isn’t planning to pump the price in the first month. In that case, I might as well sell as soon as trading opens.

5. Of course, prediction markets are only just taking off, and what’s really valuable about Predict.fun is that it’s Binance’s favored child, with everyone keeping an eye on it. But $1.3 billion really does seem a bit high. If it were $300 million, I’d definitely hold and watch for a while. Anything above $800 million feels expensive to me.

A waterfall first thing in the morning—turns out Binance was hacked overnight, with a total outflow of $5.9 billion. CZ said hackers stole $1 billion this time. Crypto really is an ATM for hackers. The image below shows the stolen tokens.

What coins does the hacker still have left to sell?

The hacker still has roughly $2.9–3.3 billion in movable assets. The core strategy is crystal clear: convert everything that can be frozen into assets that cannot. Stablecoins worth $2.5–3 billion have already been frozen, while the remaining altcoins are continuously being dumped for ETH. ETH is currently the only asset that is still “growing” in the hacker’s holdings.

The main course: BTC and ETH

BTC: 18,270 coins (about $1.44 billion) have not been moved yet. Bitcoin has the best liquidity and is the hardest to freeze, so the hacker is unlikely to dump it all at once. More likely, they will sell in batches, through OTC deals, or gradually. This is the biggest potential source of selling pressure ahead.

ETH: Holdings have grown to about 467,000 coins (around $1.06 billion), and the remaining altcoins are still being converted into ETH. Once the laundering is complete, this ETH will also become a major source of funds for future cash-outs.

The side dish of altcoins: most have been cleared out, and the rest are still being converted into ETH

According to Lookonchain data, several of the larger holdings have been almost completely sold, with about 70,000 ETH received in exchange:

Almost completely sold: UNI (about $39.6 million), ENA (about $33.9 million), PEPE (about $31.6 million), LINK (about $26 million), AAVE (about $14.27 million), ONDO, WLD, and others. The direct selling pressure from these coins has largely been released.

Still being sold off or carrying remaining selling pressure:

ARB: about 74.56 million coins (around $11.5 million) — The Arbitrum Security Council urgently transferred the relevant funds, and the freezing action was relatively quick
FUN: about 715 million coins (around $6.3 million)
ZAMA: about 87.85 million coins (around $6 million)
ZRO: about 3.6 million coins (around $5.7 million)
RSR: about 3.38 billion coins (around $5 million)

The remaining altcoins amount to roughly $180 million in total and will continue to be converted into ETH. None of the individual holdings are very large, but short-term sell-offs may have a more noticeable impact on coins with average liquidity.

Selling pressure from altcoins is easing rapidly. The real things to watch are the 18,270 BTC and nearly 470,000 ETH already accumulated. These two assets are the main sources of future cash-outs and potential selling pressure. He Yi has stated that Binance will bear all the losses and that user funds are safe, which can help stabilize confidence. But as long as these nearly $3 billion in BTC and ETH on-chain have not been fully recovered, they will remain a sword hanging over the market.

👏 Join the group to discuss on-chain address activity and progress on freezing the funds. The pace matters more than expected.

#ETH

I’ve finished writing my analysis, but the launch of $PREDICT has been delayed. What should I do—post it or not?

I’m planning to sell $PREDICT as soon as trading opens:

1. Defillama shows that predict.fun brought in $2.01 million in revenue this month, or $24 million annualized. But its market cap is already $1.3 billion, giving it a price-to-earnings ratio of 54.

2. A P/E ratio of 54 is very high. First, current revenue has been inflated by a bubble created by airdrop farmers in the community. Now that the community’s expectations have been dashed, things could get ugly from here. Second, predict.fun has already been integrated into Binance Wallet, so there aren’t many new opportunities for major growth. Its future growth potential is limited.

3. Another major reason is that the project team’s $24 million in annual earnings have nothing to do with $PREDICT . The tokenomics the team has announced don’t include a buyback-and-burn mechanism, so those profits won’t be reflected in the token price.

4. Of course, not holding long term doesn’t mean you can’t hold for a few days. But the community airdrop claim has a somewhat unusual option: “Choose to lock your tokens for one year, but you can change your mind at any time during the first month.” So I suspect the team isn’t planning to pump the price in the first month. In that case, I might as well sell as soon as trading opens.

5. Of course, prediction markets are only just taking off, and what’s really valuable about Predict.fun is that it’s Binance’s favored child, with everyone keeping an eye on it. But $1.3 billion really does seem a bit high. If it were $300 million, I’d definitely hold and watch for a while. Anything above $800 million feels expensive to me.

At 4:24 a.m., Binance had coins stolen, causing the market to plunge. Something went wrong on October 11 last year, and it’s happened again this year. Fortunately, the issue has been resolved.

Interestingly, amid all the red on the screen, it was the only one standing out.
This time, TRX rose against the trend for one simple reason:
The hackers themselves were buying TRX like crazy.
When the attack hit the TRON blockchain, the hackers needed to move the money quickly, pay transaction fees, and avoid network congestion or having their funds frozen. So they went on-chain and bought a huge amount of TRX. This kind of “forced buying” pushed the price up in no time.
Simply put:

Hackers needed TRX for “gas” and as a transfer tool
They made massive purchases in a short period, sending buying pressure surging
That also liquidated a bunch of short positions (around $900,000 worth), amplifying the gains even further

So while BTC, ETH, and BNB were all falling, TRX alone managed to climb 8%–9%.

I bought 50,000 U worth of Intel.

What else has taken a big dive? Tell me!!!

Everyone, get your ammo ready and copy Brother Sun’s shorts 😃

In this Binance hack, the hacker stole 7.77 trillion tokens, $PEPE . After the theft, the hacker immediately dumped them and swapped them for $ETH in PEPE, wiping out all of yesterday’s +20% gain

Buy the dip on Justin Sun!

$ETH
The hacker converted the remaining altcoins into ETH, bringing their holdings to an astonishing 467,000 coins! Are they getting ready to dump?

$UNI There’s a reason to go short this time—hurry back below 2!