Pelin Ay
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Pelin Ay
Yazar/Analist/Trader
Frequent Trader
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I purchased 1st tier of #Bitcoin at a cost of $59,800.
I also purchased 1st tier of #ETH at a cost of $1,595. I will be making tiered purchases. Those who don't want a long-term (1-2 year) investment shouldn't bother.
This is not investment advice!
I also purchased 1st tier of #ETH at a cost of $1,595. I will be making tiered purchases. Those who don't want a long-term (1-2 year) investment shouldn't bother.
This is not investment advice!
Increased XRP Long Trades Strengthen the Likelihood of a Long Squeeze
At first glance, it appears that leverage usage is rising again while the price is falling. The #XRP price has fallen from approximately $1.40 to the $1.17 region. The Estimated Leverage Ratio has increased from 0.13 to 0.18 in recent weeks. The Funding ratio is predominantly in negative territory. This indicates that many traders opened long positions at the bottom. Therefore, many investors may lose money with a long squeeze.
According to the chart, it is clear that the downside risk will continue in the short term. Because leverage is increasing while the price is falling. This is generally not a healthy structure. Funding is negative. Although it shows a high concentration of short positions in the market, the inability of the price to react indicates weakness. ATR is at historical lows. Volatility is severely squeezed. Such a drop in ATR usually indicates that a major downward move is approaching.
According to the price structure in the chart, the first strong support is at the $1.10 - $1.15 level. Currently, the price is already just above this region. The second support level is $1-$1.05. This area, acting as psychological support, could see a concentration of buyers. Below $1, investors may begin panic selling. If leveraged long positions start to be liquidated, the price could quickly fall below $1.
The chart shows the Estimated Leverage Ratio turning below 0.18, Funding becoming sharply negative and then neutral, and the price holding in the $1.10-$1.15 region, suggesting that the price has now found its bottom. However, this chart doesn't definitively indicate a bottom has been found. On the contrary, it shows that there are still uncleared long positions in the market due to increased leverage during the price drop. Therefore, a liquidation wave is possible in the short term. $XRP
At first glance, it appears that leverage usage is rising again while the price is falling. The #XRP price has fallen from approximately $1.40 to the $1.17 region. The Estimated Leverage Ratio has increased from 0.13 to 0.18 in recent weeks. The Funding ratio is predominantly in negative territory. This indicates that many traders opened long positions at the bottom. Therefore, many investors may lose money with a long squeeze.
According to the chart, it is clear that the downside risk will continue in the short term. Because leverage is increasing while the price is falling. This is generally not a healthy structure. Funding is negative. Although it shows a high concentration of short positions in the market, the inability of the price to react indicates weakness. ATR is at historical lows. Volatility is severely squeezed. Such a drop in ATR usually indicates that a major downward move is approaching.
According to the price structure in the chart, the first strong support is at the $1.10 - $1.15 level. Currently, the price is already just above this region. The second support level is $1-$1.05. This area, acting as psychological support, could see a concentration of buyers. Below $1, investors may begin panic selling. If leveraged long positions start to be liquidated, the price could quickly fall below $1.
The chart shows the Estimated Leverage Ratio turning below 0.18, Funding becoming sharply negative and then neutral, and the price holding in the $1.10-$1.15 region, suggesting that the price has now found its bottom. However, this chart doesn't definitively indicate a bottom has been found. On the contrary, it shows that there are still uncleared long positions in the market due to increased leverage during the price drop. Therefore, a liquidation wave is possible in the short term. $XRP
Ethereum has formed an impressive downtrend structure and it's never breaking that trend. I've never really liked #Ethereum . My preference has always been Bitcoin, but with this drop, I'm also planning to scoop up #ETH .
Supports:
🔺1765$ (This is the first level where I'll start buying if we don't see any heavy volume break)
🔺1350$
🔺950$
I'm considering this range for a dollar-cost averaging strategy. However, I must say that just because I've noted 950$ as the last stop, it doesn't mean the price will definitely drop that low. It's simply the maximum level I think we could see if we experience a significant downturn, based on my analysis. That's why incremental buying is key. Nobody can predict the bottom.
Supports:
🔺1765$ (This is the first level where I'll start buying if we don't see any heavy volume break)
🔺1350$
🔺950$
I'm considering this range for a dollar-cost averaging strategy. However, I must say that just because I've noted 950$ as the last stop, it doesn't mean the price will definitely drop that low. It's simply the maximum level I think we could see if we experience a significant downturn, based on my analysis. That's why incremental buying is key. Nobody can predict the bottom.
🚨 BITCOIN BUYING TIME IS APPROACHING!!!
For months, I've been warning about this decline by combining technical and on-chain analysis. Those who were patient and waited are happy now. What path will we follow from here?
#Bitcoin Important Supports:
🔺$64,800 (Important support. The first level we will start buying at if there is no high-volume breakout)
🔺$57,800
🔺$51,750
🔺$41,500 (Last buying zone)
after that, wait. Of course, it's not correct to place orders at these levels precisely. A margin of error of a few thousand is quite normal. This doesn't mean it will definitely fall to $41,500. That's why staggered buying is important. None of us can know exactly where it will turn around. $BTC
For months, I've been warning about this decline by combining technical and on-chain analysis. Those who were patient and waited are happy now. What path will we follow from here?
#Bitcoin Important Supports:
🔺$64,800 (Important support. The first level we will start buying at if there is no high-volume breakout)
🔺$57,800
🔺$51,750
🔺$41,500 (Last buying zone)
after that, wait. Of course, it's not correct to place orders at these levels precisely. A margin of error of a few thousand is quite normal. This doesn't mean it will definitely fall to $41,500. That's why staggered buying is important. None of us can know exactly where it will turn around. $BTC
Fear Reigns in the Market
The news of Strategy's sale of 32 #BTC caused strong headwinds in the crypto markets. In fact, considering the company's total BTC holdings, it's not a direct price-determining factor in the market. Therefore, the metrics we see in the chart are more helpful in understanding general market behavior and investor psychology.
The Fund Flow Ratio does not support a decline or selling pressure. The Fund Flow Ratio is currently around 0.01, close to the lower band of the recent period. Therefore, in terms of on-chain data, it cannot be said that the Strategy sale brought a heavy sell-off to the market.
NUPL is still in the positive profit zone at 0.27. However, it is important to note that NUPL has been sloping downwards since mid-May. This indicates that investor profits are starting to erode. So there is no panic selling, but momentum is weakening.
MVRV is hovering around 1.36. The current level seems quite reasonable compared to past cycles. Therefore, the MVRV side does not confirm the formation of a major peak.
So if everything is positive, why this decline?
There's a clear negative divergence between the #bitcoin price on #Binance and the indicators. From the end of April, the price rose to the $80-85,000 region. NUPL and MVRV also rose. However, in the last few weeks, the price has been falling, NUPL has been falling, and MVRV has been falling. This indicates that profit-taking has begun. Investors' risk appetite has been reduced to a minimum. The months-long accumulation of bullish expectations in the market has destroyed this momentum.
In short, the downward movement of NUPL and MVRV for several weeks shows that the short-term upward momentum has been lost. If the price fails to hold in the $70-72,000 region, investor profits may erode faster, and a drop in NUPL below 0.20 could increase selling pressure. Strategy's sale of $32 BTC alone doesn't generate a bearish signal. However, it is causing other investors to take profits as well. $BTC
The news of Strategy's sale of 32 #BTC caused strong headwinds in the crypto markets. In fact, considering the company's total BTC holdings, it's not a direct price-determining factor in the market. Therefore, the metrics we see in the chart are more helpful in understanding general market behavior and investor psychology.
The Fund Flow Ratio does not support a decline or selling pressure. The Fund Flow Ratio is currently around 0.01, close to the lower band of the recent period. Therefore, in terms of on-chain data, it cannot be said that the Strategy sale brought a heavy sell-off to the market.
NUPL is still in the positive profit zone at 0.27. However, it is important to note that NUPL has been sloping downwards since mid-May. This indicates that investor profits are starting to erode. So there is no panic selling, but momentum is weakening.
MVRV is hovering around 1.36. The current level seems quite reasonable compared to past cycles. Therefore, the MVRV side does not confirm the formation of a major peak.
So if everything is positive, why this decline?
There's a clear negative divergence between the #bitcoin price on #Binance and the indicators. From the end of April, the price rose to the $80-85,000 region. NUPL and MVRV also rose. However, in the last few weeks, the price has been falling, NUPL has been falling, and MVRV has been falling. This indicates that profit-taking has begun. Investors' risk appetite has been reduced to a minimum. The months-long accumulation of bullish expectations in the market has destroyed this momentum.
In short, the downward movement of NUPL and MVRV for several weeks shows that the short-term upward momentum has been lost. If the price fails to hold in the $70-72,000 region, investor profits may erode faster, and a drop in NUPL below 0.20 could increase selling pressure. Strategy's sale of $32 BTC alone doesn't generate a bearish signal. However, it is causing other investors to take profits as well. $BTC
June 6th Warning!
Bitcoin has closed June with almost equal increases and decreases since 2013.
🟢 Positive close: 8 times
🔴 Negative close: 5 times
📈 Strongest June: 2013 (+27.1%) and 2016 (+26.8%)
📉 Worst June: 2022 (-37.3%)
📊 The average return for June has historically been around 0% to 2%, meaning it's not one of #BTC's strongest seasons. #Bitcoin has generally spent June accumulating.
The noteworthy point is the distribution of the last June 6th:
2019 (+26.2%) → 2020 (-3.4%) → 2021 (-6.0%) → 2022 (-37.3%) → 2023 (+12.0%) → 2024 (-7.1%) → 2025 (+2.4%)
$BTC
What kind of June do you think we will have this year?
Bitcoin has closed June with almost equal increases and decreases since 2013.
🟢 Positive close: 8 times
🔴 Negative close: 5 times
📈 Strongest June: 2013 (+27.1%) and 2016 (+26.8%)
📉 Worst June: 2022 (-37.3%)
📊 The average return for June has historically been around 0% to 2%, meaning it's not one of #BTC's strongest seasons. #Bitcoin has generally spent June accumulating.
The noteworthy point is the distribution of the last June 6th:
2019 (+26.2%) → 2020 (-3.4%) → 2021 (-6.0%) → 2022 (-37.3%) → 2023 (+12.0%) → 2024 (-7.1%) → 2025 (+2.4%)
$BTC
What kind of June do you think we will have this year?
Could XRP Have Completed Its Search for a Bottom?
Examining the chart with XRP Price, Exchange Supply Ratio, NVT Ratio, and Awesome Oscillator together reveals several important conclusions about the XRP price:
1- The price continues its consolidation period. XRP price has settled into a horizontal band around $1.33, leaving behind sharp fluctuations. Unlike the sharp ups and downs of previous months, the price is consolidating within a narrow range.
2- The supply pressure on exchanges appears to be decreasing. The exchange supply ratio has shown a significant downward trend since May. The decrease in the XRP supply ratio on exchanges indicates that investors are withdrawing their assets from exchanges and moving them to cold wallets. This suggests that selling pressure on the price has eased and is preparing the ground for an upward movement in the medium term.
3- The decrease in the NVT ratio can be interpreted as a signal of undervaluation. The chart shows a sharp drop of -23.73% in the NVT ratio to 151.53. A decrease in the NVT (Network Transaction Volume) indicates high transaction volume and economic activity on the network compared to the price. In cryptocurrency analysis, low NVT is generally interpreted as the asset's current price being undervalued or at its bottom. It supports the idea that the price is not overvalued.
4- The AO (Average Overflow) indicator suggests weakening momentum and the prevalence of indecision. The AO is moving just below the zero line, with relatively small red and green bars. The fact that the AO bars are so close to zero and small confirms that there is neither a strong bullish nor a strong bearish momentum dominating the market. It indicates that the price is seeking a breakout to find direction in the short term, and the current $1.33 level has become a significant equilibrium point.
Based on these inferences, the chart generally shows that XRP is in a consolidation process where its price has completed or is about to complete its search for a bottom. $XRP
Examining the chart with XRP Price, Exchange Supply Ratio, NVT Ratio, and Awesome Oscillator together reveals several important conclusions about the XRP price:
1- The price continues its consolidation period. XRP price has settled into a horizontal band around $1.33, leaving behind sharp fluctuations. Unlike the sharp ups and downs of previous months, the price is consolidating within a narrow range.
2- The supply pressure on exchanges appears to be decreasing. The exchange supply ratio has shown a significant downward trend since May. The decrease in the XRP supply ratio on exchanges indicates that investors are withdrawing their assets from exchanges and moving them to cold wallets. This suggests that selling pressure on the price has eased and is preparing the ground for an upward movement in the medium term.
3- The decrease in the NVT ratio can be interpreted as a signal of undervaluation. The chart shows a sharp drop of -23.73% in the NVT ratio to 151.53. A decrease in the NVT (Network Transaction Volume) indicates high transaction volume and economic activity on the network compared to the price. In cryptocurrency analysis, low NVT is generally interpreted as the asset's current price being undervalued or at its bottom. It supports the idea that the price is not overvalued.
4- The AO (Average Overflow) indicator suggests weakening momentum and the prevalence of indecision. The AO is moving just below the zero line, with relatively small red and green bars. The fact that the AO bars are so close to zero and small confirms that there is neither a strong bullish nor a strong bearish momentum dominating the market. It indicates that the price is seeking a breakout to find direction in the short term, and the current $1.33 level has become a significant equilibrium point.
Based on these inferences, the chart generally shows that XRP is in a consolidation process where its price has completed or is about to complete its search for a bottom. $XRP
Ethereum Will Continue to Under Downward Pressure
When the chart is examined together with the Ethereum price, Binance Funding Rates, Estimated Leverage Ratio, and RSI data, it is seen that the market is currently somewhat more prone to downward pressure.
The first point that stands out is the price's weakness in recent weeks, consistently peaking at lower levels. There has been a significant loss of volume on the price side, especially since mid-May. Despite this, it is important that the Estimated Leverage Ratio remains at quite high levels. The fact that the yellow line is currently around 0.74 indicates that leverage usage is still high in the market. Normally, in strong upward movements, leverage increases are supported by the price. However, here, while leverage remains high, the price is moving downwards. This creates a weak structure, indicating that the market is being driven more by derivative positions than healthy spot demand.
The Funding Rate also supports this. The blue line generally remains in the positive region. This means that there is still a long majority in the market. However, the price is not strengthening during the same period. This divergence is important because the inability of the price to react while upward expectations continue in the market usually indicates a weakening of buying power.
The RSI data in the lower panel also confirms the loss of momentum. The RSI is currently around 31, quite close to the oversold region. This indicates that selling pressure is dominant in the short term. However, the RSI has not yet generated a strong recovery signal. The downward slope in the RSI, coupled with the price's horizontal-downward consolidation, shows that momentum is still negative.
In summary:
* Leverage is high,
* Long positions continue to dominate,
* However, the price is unable to generate strength,
* The RSI shows weak momentum.
This generally indicates that downward pressure in the market is still dominant in the short term. $ETH #Ethereum(ETH)
When the chart is examined together with the Ethereum price, Binance Funding Rates, Estimated Leverage Ratio, and RSI data, it is seen that the market is currently somewhat more prone to downward pressure.
The first point that stands out is the price's weakness in recent weeks, consistently peaking at lower levels. There has been a significant loss of volume on the price side, especially since mid-May. Despite this, it is important that the Estimated Leverage Ratio remains at quite high levels. The fact that the yellow line is currently around 0.74 indicates that leverage usage is still high in the market. Normally, in strong upward movements, leverage increases are supported by the price. However, here, while leverage remains high, the price is moving downwards. This creates a weak structure, indicating that the market is being driven more by derivative positions than healthy spot demand.
The Funding Rate also supports this. The blue line generally remains in the positive region. This means that there is still a long majority in the market. However, the price is not strengthening during the same period. This divergence is important because the inability of the price to react while upward expectations continue in the market usually indicates a weakening of buying power.
The RSI data in the lower panel also confirms the loss of momentum. The RSI is currently around 31, quite close to the oversold region. This indicates that selling pressure is dominant in the short term. However, the RSI has not yet generated a strong recovery signal. The downward slope in the RSI, coupled with the price's horizontal-downward consolidation, shows that momentum is still negative.
In summary:
* Leverage is high,
* Long positions continue to dominate,
* However, the price is unable to generate strength,
* The RSI shows weak momentum.
This generally indicates that downward pressure in the market is still dominant in the short term. $ETH #Ethereum(ETH)
I've never seen Bitcoin pump during a holiday. Let's see if it can surprise us this year.
$BTC It's been moving within the channel of $72750-$81500. Scalp trading in this range has been profitable and continues to be. You can capitalize on this range until a breakout occurs. As I always say, I'm anticipating a downward breakout. #Bitcoin
$BTC It's been moving within the channel of $72750-$81500. Scalp trading in this range has been profitable and continues to be. You can capitalize on this range until a breakout occurs. As I always say, I'm anticipating a downward breakout. #Bitcoin
Verified
Stablecoin Reserves on Exchanges Near Historic Highs
When reading the Stablecoin Exchange Reserve, Bitcoin price, Bitcoin Exchange Reserve, and SOPR indicator together on the chart, it appears that the market is currently setting up for a medium-to-long-term rally. However, in the short term, a cautious transition period is still ongoing.
The most notable data point is on the stablecoin reserve side. The amount of stablecoins on exchanges remains at historically high levels. This indicates that there is a significant amount of buying power waiting in the market. In other words, investors have not completely exited the market; rather, large capital is still sitting on the sidelines as stablecoins.
In past cycles, when stablecoin reserves increased and Bitcoin reserves continued to decline, strong rally periods typically began a few months later.
On the chart, @@[hashtag][{"content":{"tag":"Bitcoin"},"type":"hashtag"}]#Bitcoin@@ exchange reserves are still relatively low. This is important because a limited amount of BTC on exchanges indicates that selling pressure is constrained. This means that large investors are not dumping their coins onto exchanges.
The SOPR indicator is currently at a critical level, very close to 1. This situation indicates that there is neither excessive profit-taking nor panic selling in the market. In other words, the market is in a balance phase.
When reading the entire structure together, short-term fluctuations and indecisive movements may continue, but because the liquidity of stablecoins remains very strong, it seems difficult for significant downturns to be permanent, especially when new capital inflows begin, these reserves could turn back into crypto purchases.
$BTC
When reading the Stablecoin Exchange Reserve, Bitcoin price, Bitcoin Exchange Reserve, and SOPR indicator together on the chart, it appears that the market is currently setting up for a medium-to-long-term rally. However, in the short term, a cautious transition period is still ongoing.
The most notable data point is on the stablecoin reserve side. The amount of stablecoins on exchanges remains at historically high levels. This indicates that there is a significant amount of buying power waiting in the market. In other words, investors have not completely exited the market; rather, large capital is still sitting on the sidelines as stablecoins.
In past cycles, when stablecoin reserves increased and Bitcoin reserves continued to decline, strong rally periods typically began a few months later.
On the chart, @@[hashtag][{"content":{"tag":"Bitcoin"},"type":"hashtag"}]#Bitcoin@@ exchange reserves are still relatively low. This is important because a limited amount of BTC on exchanges indicates that selling pressure is constrained. This means that large investors are not dumping their coins onto exchanges.
The SOPR indicator is currently at a critical level, very close to 1. This situation indicates that there is neither excessive profit-taking nor panic selling in the market. In other words, the market is in a balance phase.
When reading the entire structure together, short-term fluctuations and indecisive movements may continue, but because the liquidity of stablecoins remains very strong, it seems difficult for significant downturns to be permanent, especially when new capital inflows begin, these reserves could turn back into crypto purchases.
$BTC
Gold looks set to collect liquidation at $4100 before heading towards $5000. The bloody holiday will also be felt in the markets. This could be the last buying opportunity of the summer. $XAU
Failed
Unfortunately, silver failed to break through the $95 resistance level again this week. It doesn't seem likely to advance without taking the liquidation accumulated around $60. If it closes below the trend line this week, the holiday period will likely see a decline. In my opinion, this will be a buying opportunity. We will experience the final decline. $XAG
Preparing for an XRP Long Squeeze
When examining Open Interest, Market Cap, and NVT Ratio together, it appears that short-term upward pressure on XRP is increasing, but the movement doesn't seem fully healthy yet.
The standout point is on the Open Interest side. Open Interest has recently started rising sharply again. This indicates that positions are building up in the futures market and traders are opening trades aggressively once more. Normally, when Open Interest rises and the price is supported, the market is more likely to generate upward movements. However, the risk here is that the NVT Ratio is still very high and continues to produce erratic spikes. An increase in NVT indicates that the network value is starting to look expensive relative to the actual transaction activity on-chain. In other words, even if the price rises, the fundamental usage may not be growing at the same pace. This can lead to short-lived rallies.
On the Market Cap side, there’s no strong crash. A flat Market Cap suggests that large investors are not yet making aggressive investments. This reduces the likelihood of a sharp downward crash in the short term.
In the short term, the direction seems slightly more upward. The increase in Open Interest is trying to push the price up. However, since the NVT is excessively high, the rallies may be unhealthy and highly volatile. Therefore, the scenario appears to be more of an initial upward squeeze followed by a sharp correction risk.
Especially if Open Interest continues to rise but the price fails to create new highs, this increases the risk of a long squeeze, and sudden downward wicks could be seen in #XRP. Conversely, if the price breaks resistances along with the rise in OI, a strong short-term momentum could be formed.
$XRP
When examining Open Interest, Market Cap, and NVT Ratio together, it appears that short-term upward pressure on XRP is increasing, but the movement doesn't seem fully healthy yet.
The standout point is on the Open Interest side. Open Interest has recently started rising sharply again. This indicates that positions are building up in the futures market and traders are opening trades aggressively once more. Normally, when Open Interest rises and the price is supported, the market is more likely to generate upward movements. However, the risk here is that the NVT Ratio is still very high and continues to produce erratic spikes. An increase in NVT indicates that the network value is starting to look expensive relative to the actual transaction activity on-chain. In other words, even if the price rises, the fundamental usage may not be growing at the same pace. This can lead to short-lived rallies.
On the Market Cap side, there’s no strong crash. A flat Market Cap suggests that large investors are not yet making aggressive investments. This reduces the likelihood of a sharp downward crash in the short term.
In the short term, the direction seems slightly more upward. The increase in Open Interest is trying to push the price up. However, since the NVT is excessively high, the rallies may be unhealthy and highly volatile. Therefore, the scenario appears to be more of an initial upward squeeze followed by a sharp correction risk.
Especially if Open Interest continues to rise but the price fails to create new highs, this increases the risk of a long squeeze, and sudden downward wicks could be seen in #XRP. Conversely, if the price breaks resistances along with the rise in OI, a strong short-term momentum could be formed.
$XRP
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