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Will the Federal Reserve raise rates as expected this week? Wall Street is debating: will it end the U.S. stock bull market?
After an unexpectedly strong U.S. CPI report came out last Friday, traders generally expect the Federal Reserve to begin raising rates at this week’s policy meeting—marking the first rate hike in more than three years.
Historically, previous rounds of rate hikes have offered a reference point for today’s market. Based on past experience (though history of course can’t guarantee the future), U.S. stocks may first weaken, then rebound.
Among the six tightening cycles since 1994, during the first four months after the rate-hike cycle began, the S&P 500’s average return was negative.
This suggests that once the “rate-hike shoe” drops, U.S. stocks may look lackluster through the beginning of next year.
As of the close last Friday, the benchmark U.S. equity index, the S&P 500, is up nearly 12% year to date. Strong corporate earnings and a fairly resilient economy have provided solid support for bulls in the stock market.
If you extend the time horizon, the S&P 500’s performance tends to improve gradually: in the 12 months after the start of a rate-hiking cycle, the index’s average return is close to 7%, with a median return of about 11%. (Using median-based statistics helps remove distortions from extreme outliers—for example, the index surged more than 40% after hikes began in March 1997.)
If the Federal Reserve implements a rate hike this Wednesday, it will be the first hike since July 2023—when the Fed raised rates to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.
Currently, the federal funds rate in the U.S. is at 3.50% to 3.75%. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, futures traders currently assign an 86% probability to a 25-basis-point hike this week.
One positive factor for the market is that mega-scale cloud service providers are still driving growth in excess returns through large-scale AI spending. The S&P 500 component stocks’ forecast for earnings growth in 2027 is expected to reach double digits. If the outlook for AI spending remains unchanged, it may be enough to offset any cooling in optimistic sentiment caused by the rate hikes.
Another bright spot for equities is that although inflation remains sticky, it appears to be slowing. The inflation rate has fallen from a May peak of 4.2%. This should allow the Federal Reserve to take a more gradual approach, and the data shows that the pace of rate hikes is crucial for stock performance—slower pacing gives investors more time to absorb policy changes! $BZ
🚨 Bitcoin Holding Strong Near $77K: What’s Next for the Market? 📈🔥 The crypto market is currently navigating a crucial phase as Bitcoin trades steady around the $77,000 zone, digesting recent macro pressures and massive leverage flushes. Here is a quick snapshot of what’s driving the market right now: Macro Pressure & Fed Watch: Investors are closely eyeing upcoming central bank policy decisions, keeping risk appetite cautious while volatility kicks in. Key Levels to Watch: BTC is defending critical support around $76,000 – $76,600, while the $80,000 – $82,000 range remains the ultimate resistance zone to break for the next major leg up. Market Sentiment: Despite minor pullbacks and ETF flow fluctuations, the overall sentiment remains resilient in the "Greed" zone, showing that long-term believers are refusing to panic. Are you accumulating the dip or waiting for a clearer breakout before making your next move? Let’s discuss in the comments below! 👇💬 #Bitcoin #Crypto #BinanceSquare #BTC #Trading #CryptoNews #HODL $BTC $USDC
Price has reclaimed the MA7, MA25 & MA99, backed by consecutive green candles and rising volume. Momentum is strong, but with RSI near 81, chasing here carries extra risk. 👀
🎙️ Crypto market trends discussion; answers to questions for newcomers ✅ build the Binance Plaza together 🦅 spread the spirit of freedom! maintain ecological balance!
90% of traders are expecting this hike... but the real question is is this just a one-off, or the start of a whole cycle? 👀
August core CPI came in at +0.3% month-over-month, still running above the Fed's 2% target, and futures markets are now pricing in close to a 90%+ chance of a 25bp hike at this week's meeting the first hike since 2023. My read: this looks less like a one-off and more like the Fed signaling it's not done fighting inflation. If the dot plot released alongside the decision shows more than one hike penciled in for the next few quarters, that's the tell it's the start of a cycle, not a single adjustment.
If the hike lands as expected, I'd expect a mixed reaction across assets. $BTC and risk assets could see a short-term dip as higher rates pressure liquidity and raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets though a "hike priced in" outcome sometimes triggers relief buying instead, especially if the tone on future hikes is cautious. Tech stocks are the most rate-sensitive of the bunch; higher discount rates compress valuations on long-duration growth names first. Gold is trickier a hawkish Fed with a stronger dollar tends to weigh on it short term, but if the hike is framed as inflation-fighting rather than growth-supportive, gold can hold up better than usual as a hedge.
My plan 1 : trimming tech exposure into the decision, keeping BTC core position unhedged, watching gold for a dip-buy if DXY spikes.
My plan 2 : staying on the sidelines for this one no active trades right now. Watching how BTC, tech and gold react post-decision before deciding my next move
Not financial advice just how I'm thinking about positioning into Wednesday's decision. Curious how others are playing it.
#FedRateWatch #BTC
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