恐龙博士

Bitcoin $BTC This move—I think the adjustment may not be over yet, so I’ve closed my long positions for now. No need to chase these few rebound candles.

Looking at the 4-hour structure, there has been some recovery after the sharp drop, but the rebound has yet to reclaim the 79,800–80,000 area. After recently pushing up near 78,800, the price pulled back again. To me, this still looks more like a consolidation and recovery after a decline, not a confirmed trend reversal.

The main level I’m watching next is around 76,500.
It’s close to the recent lows, so I plan to wait for a retest and see whether we get a pattern of “dip and recover, then retest without breaking down.” If buyers step in, I may take a small position for a rebound, rather than blindly going long as soon as the price hits that level.
The plan is to trade a rebound, not bet that a bull market is about to return.

First, I’ll watch to see whether the price can reclaim around 78,800, then I’ll look at resistance around 79,800–80,000. If the rebound can’t push higher, I’ll scale out in batches rather than turning a short-term trade into a matter of faith.

If the price breaks below the recent low near 76,300 and can’t reclaim it for a while, then this long-entry thesis may no longer hold. If it’s time to exit, I’ll exit—I won’t keep adding as the price falls.
If it rallies without a retest, I’m okay with missing the move.

The Fed’s latest decision: the target range for the federal funds rate will remain at 3.75%–4.00%, with a 10–2 vote. Two committee members favored a 25-basis-point rate hike, and the statement also noted that inflation remains elevated.

They held rates steady this time. The market still has to digest tonight’s GDP, PCE, and initial jobless claims data, so short-term volatility could remain significant.

$BTC I’m keeping an eye on 80,200 and 79,600 for now. If the price gets back near those levels, I’ll assess support and the market’s reaction, and consider going long in stages. If it doesn’t get there, never mind.

Hopefully it drops enough for me to take a short-term long position. If it keeps rising, there’s nothing I can do—I'll just wait for another opportunity.

#美联储何时降息？ #interest rates

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Bulls, come back soon! I've switched to the long side! Let's see if $BTC can reach 84,000. If it gets there, I'll buy the pullback and hold until 85,000, then see. $BTC