MK守约

This article will summarize a series of articles written on the trading sector.
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#站在守约的肩膀上悟自己的交易之道
56。《 为什么你总是在错误的位置加仓 》
55。《 扛单的本质，是不承认自己错了 》

The first major event in October is two bid sheets.
Anthropic in the U.S. plans to list at a valuation of $2 trillion, and the roadshow schedule points to the week of November 9.
China's DeepSeek's target valuation for its second-round financing is 500 billion yuan, and at the same time, Citic Securities should prepare for the STAR Market.
Meanwhile, the average premium paid by Wall Street when buying new shares has fallen from 24% at the end of June to less than 1%.
So they have to sell within the same cooling window.
This is not a coincidence; the two sets of accounts are grabbing the same batch of money.
First, let's talk about the one in the United States; the ledger is also longer.
Anthropic plans to hold its pre-listing investors’ day on October 14, aiming to get listed before Thanksgiving.

On October 2, Hong Kong stocks fell by 640.98 points.
The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,972.29 points, down 2.60%.
This is the first time the Hang Seng Index has closed below 24,000 points in more than two and a half months.
At one point during the session, it fell by nearly 750 points at most, and the low reached 23,865 points.
If you line up the calendar, you’ll understand the weight of this matter.
A-shares were closed from October 1 to October 7, and only reopened on October 8.
That is to say, throughout the entire holiday, the only place where Chinese assets are priced is Hong Kong stocks.
And the answer it gave was down 2.6%.
1. What fell that day, and what rose

At 8:30 p.m. on Friday, three things happened at the same time.
U.S. September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000.
The market’s original expectation was an increase of 90,000 people.
That same day, the Fed’s No. 2 and No. 3 officials both weighed in, saying there’s no need to rush.
By all reasonable accounts, this should be bond investors’ night of celebration.
With jobs falling apart and rate hikes gone, yields should be heading lower.
As a result, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.28%.
It even briefly touched 5.342%, the highest level since the beginning of 2002.
The thirty-year also didn’t lag behind.
On September 29, during the day it briefly touched 5.62%, the highest level since June 2002.

Let’s look at a number first.
For the diesel cracking spread at the U.S. Port of New York, on September 29 it was $113.80 per barrel.
In September, it set a historical record of $122.63.
This is the 99th percentile in a 20-year record.
Under normal circumstances, this price spread ranges between $15 and $30 per barrel.
If it’s over $40 or $50, it means something is seriously wrong with the refining market.
Now it’s 113.
There’s another metric we need to look at together.
The diesel cracking spread compiled by LSEG hit a historical record of $112.17 in early September.
The two figures are slightly different because the benchmark crude and the quote sources differ.

First the answer: this is a financial war.
And it has an official name: "economic isolation."
Aircraft carriers are not the main character; they are a means of execution.
1. First, look at how the official documents put it
On August 24, the U.S. Treasury expanded its sanctions on Iran into five areas.
These five areas are aviation, digital assets, gold, shipping, and technology.
Also added to the list on the same day were about sixty entities, individuals, and ships.
They involve nuclear and missile technology, cyber operations, and oil trade.
The Treasury Secretary, Bessent, wrote an article in the UK’s (Financial Times).

At 8:30 p.m. last night, two things were in place at the same time.
Warsh’s new policy framework as Fed chair, along with clearly softer inflation data.
As it turned out, the market delivered a third answer.
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.64%, the highest since 2002.
The Dow Jones index fell 443.87 points that day.
First, explain these two things, and then explain why the market isn’t buying it.
1. What exactly is Warsh’s “new deal”
Kevin Warsh took over as chairman of the Federal Reserve on May 22.
The first thing he did after taking office was to dismantle the Horizon guidance toolset.

First, the answer: neither of them is true.
This time, it’s not about someone coming to pick you up, nor is it about someone digging a pit waiting for you to jump.
It’s a reasonable price for gold, and someone recalculated it again.
I. Why “picking someone up” doesn’t hold
“Picking someone up” has a prerequisite.
It assumes the valuation hasn’t changed—just that prices temporarily step aside so that those who missed the move can come up.
This time, the valuation has changed.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury’s real yield—i.e., the return investors truly get after subtracting inflation—stands at 2.90%.
This is the highest since November 2008.
Gold doesn’t generate interest.
If you hold gold, the only thing you give up is this risk-free real return.

Gold collapsed today.
At Beijing time 0:00, it was still at 4,283.95.
It hit a low of 4,116.60.
Starting from the intraday high of 4,288.39, it fell as much as 4.01%.
This is the lowest point since August 5.
Now when you look up “why gold is falling,” the answer is basically the same.
The rise in oil prices lifted inflation concerns, and the Fed still needs to raise rates, so gold was dragged down.
That explanation sounds especially smooth.
But it has a problem with the sequence of events.
I put today’s oil price and gold price side by side hour by hour.
Oil didn’t fall along with gold—it fell because of gold.

Gold falls to 4,177.
This is the real-time price of the Binance XAU/USDT perpetual contract,
It’s also the lowest in the past 30 trading days.
What’s the status of your position right now?
I guess that’s how it is: you’re down, but you didn’t exit.
Because you believe it will come back.
——
First, see how much it dropped.
Starting from September 3 at 4,514,
In less than a month, it dropped 7.5%.
You’ll go search for the reason.
The answer I found is: inflation expectations are cooling,
Gold’s safe-haven function has stopped working.
This explanation is wrong.
——
Look at two numbers.
Real interest rate: January 29 at 1.89%,
It’s now 2.83%, which is 94 basis points higher.