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Fear index 13, extreme fear. BTC pulled back from 59,000 to 60,000+. Across the whole market, liquidations totaled $1.457 billion. In this kind of environment, it’s easiest to make mistakes.

Let’s review last night’s price action:
- BTC broke below 59,000; volume wasn’t huge, but sentiment collapsed
- Longs were liquidated in a cascading, panic-style wipeout; in one hour, $635 million was wiped out
- A V-reversal in the early morning, pushing back above 60,000
- Funding rates flipped from negative to positive

This setup isn’t the first time it has appeared. Every time there’s extreme fear followed by a quick rebound, the script is pretty similar—liquidity gets cleaned out, leverage changes hands, and new capital moves in. The key now is whether BTC can hold the 60,000 level over the next two days.

My discipline in an environment like this:
1. Don’t chase a crash—if you had short-term bought the dip during the 59,000 drop, you would be up now. But that was luck. With normal stop-losses set there, you would’ve already been swept out
2. Don’t buy the bounce just because price is rebounding—when 60,000 just got reclaimed, the “real” breakout still needs confirmation
3. Reduce position size to 30–50% of your usual daily allocation. When fear is extreme, being lightly positioned lets you sleep at night

A Grayscale research report gave a fundamental anchor—many protocols trade around 1x PS. But what I care more about is whether the CLARITY Act can truly be implemented. If it passes in July, the DeFi sector could see an institutional allocation-driven rally. That’s a more reliable medium-term logic than short-term up/down moves.

It’s Friday today, and volatility before the close won’t be small.

#交易笔记 #BTC

Ethereum is currently facing a structural dilemma, not just short-term bearishness.

Three things are stacked together:
1. Over $300 million has been net withdrawn from ETH spot ETFs for four consecutive days—institutions are pulling out.
2. The Ethereum Foundation has laid off 20% of its staff and cut its budget by 40%—Vitalik is talking about transitioning to a long-term fund model, but the market doesn't care about the logic and is dumping first.
3. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, approaching 0.026—holding ETH is underperforming compared to BTC, and that's pretty obvious.

The core issue: there's a narrative vacuum surrounding Ethereum. Layer 2 solutions are siphoning value from the mainnet, but L2 tokens haven’t delivered actual gains for ETH holders. Solana is snatching users with memes and DePIN, while on-chain activity for ETH is shrinking.

For traders holding ETH: $1,550 is a key support level; if it doesn't hold, look for $1,400. A rebound needs a catalyst—either the end of ETF net withdrawals, a new ecosystem narrative, or regulatory progress on ETH staking ETFs. Until all three of these show up, no bottom fishing.

BTC may be down too, but its narrative is clearer: digital gold + ETF inflows + the halving cycle. ETH needs to find its own story.

#以太坊 #交易策略 #ETH #review

June 24 Recap: Rebound After Black Tuesday, Tonight's PCE Sets Direction

After yesterday's Black Tuesday, the Asia-Pacific market is seeing an overall rebound today. BTC is currently at 62582, ETH at 1664, with 24-hour changes of +0.45% and +1% respectively. It looks like we're in the green, but don't get too optimistic— the 7-day moving average is still red (BTC -4.4%, ETH -6.7%), and the overall trend remains a small rebound in a downward adjustment.

Key levels:
Resistance for BTC is at 64000-65000 (previous support turned resistance), with support at the critical 60000 level, and below that is the 59000 level mentioned by Wintermute.
Resistance for ETH is at 1750-1800, with support at 1570 corresponding to BTC's rate to 59K.

The most important variable tonight: the U.S. PCE data. This is the inflation indicator that the Fed pays the most attention to. If PCE exceeds expectations, the market will reprice rate cut expectations, putting pressure on risk assets; if it falls short, we might see a short-term rebound.

From a strategy perspective, the judgment remains: now is not the time for heavy positions. Three reasons:
1. Summer liquidity is indeed shrinking, trading volume will get thinner, leading to more false breakouts.
2. Institutional funds in ETH are flowing out—four consecutive days of ETF net outflows is not a good sign.
3. There are no clear macro catalysts for bullish sentiment, and the market will be on hold until July 14 when Waller testifies before Congress.

Operational thinking: Hold light positions in spot, no left-side bottom fishing. Futures players should pay attention to volatility during U.S. trading hours, reducing positions to a minimum before and after PCE is released. If BTC breaks down significantly below 60000, the next stop is likely 59000 or even lower. If BTC holds above 60000 and the PCE is favorable, consider a small position to play for a rebound to 64000-65000. Tonight, less action and more observation; let the data speak.

#交易心得 #策略 #BTC

MSUSD has dropped to $0.36, losing over 60% of its peg. The officials claim it's fully backed by assets—just like the wording back when UST went sideways in 2022.

No matter how complex the mechanics of algorithmic stablecoins are, the core issue remains the same: there's no real fiat backing them. UST had its issues, and now MSUSD is following suit; there will be another one down the line.

This lesson is worth its weight in gold: steer clear of algorithmic stablecoins, regardless of their names or who’s backing them.

#交易心得 #stablecoin

Franklin Templeton—managing a whopping $1.6 trillion as a legacy global asset manager—just announced the launch of a dedicated crypto department. This isn’t about exploration or research; it's a full-fledged department.

This isn’t on the same scale as Goldman Sachs' trading desk. Goldman helps others trade, while Templeton manages the slow money of pensions, retirement funds, and family offices. These funds are in for the long haul, not for quick flips.

Traders should ask themselves: with BlackRock, Fidelity, and Templeton quietly entering the game, are your fast in-and-out positions still in the best spot? Institutions don't chase pumps; they wait for dips. Can you hold out?

#机构入场 #tradingthoughts

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ETFs have seen net inflows for 7 straight days, and institutions are stacking up. Retail traders panic sell at the slightest dip, while big money buys the dip. Keep your eyes on who the real winners are. Bitcoin has never had a bear market; it's just you who can't handle the shakeout.