毛衣球

I can barely keep copying anymore 🥲🥲🥲

Last night, U.S. stocks posted their biggest single-day gain since April, with the Nasdaq up 2.74%, while BTC is still hovering around 75,000.
Stocks have taken the lead, while the crypto market is still waiting for tonight’s CPI release at 21:30. ETFs saw $1.28 billion in outflows last week, and the Fear & Greed Index is at 32, still in fear territory.
Are both sides really betting on the same thing when it comes to this inflation data? We’ll find out tonight.
#行情分析 $BTC

Anthropic didn’t spend $3.4 billion on generators—it bought time.
According to the FT, it took over orders for 1.7 GW of gas-fired generators to power data centers. New generators now come with waits of several years, so buying someone else’s place in line is faster.
In this round of the AI arms race, the deciding factor may not be models, but electricity: whoever secures power first can ramp up computing capacity first.
Models can catch up over time, but power grids and order queues can’t wait. Do you think electricity will decide who wins the next round of AI competition?
#热点背后的利益 #AI

“Ultrasound Money”—even its founder no longer believes in it.

On November 8, Vitalik posted four times on X: “ETH has never looked stronger as a token whose fees are burned.” He said ETH should be measured as a store of value, anchored in decentralization: censorship resistance, open source, privacy, and security.

He didn’t say to scrap EIP-1559. The burn mechanism stays. He’s just saying there’s no need to be disappointed if burning doesn’t even reach one-tenth of the break-even point; value comes from elsewhere.

The numbers don’t support the old story, either: so far in 2026, only about 19,200 ETH have been burned, compared with 1.48 million in 2022. Fees are lower, activity has moved to Layer 2, and the decline in burns is structural.

$ETH is now hovering around $2,120, after briefly dropping to $2,081 on the 8th. Changing the anchor isn’t bearish; it just changes the question: is a coin valuable because of how much has been burned, or because of how hard it is to take away?

Are you holding ETH for the burn, or because it’s stable enough?
#InterestsBehindTheHotTopics,#Ethereum

On Sunday, it was still an investigation. By Monday, it had become a lawsuit.

On November 9, Rosen Law Firm sued Nvidia and Jensen Huang in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, alleging that they concealed their relationship with Megaspeed. Four law firms followed suit the same day. The Commerce Department has referred its investigation to the Justice Department, and the House wants Huang to give a closed-door briefing on the 18th. Nvidia reports earnings on the 17th.

Nvidia shares closed at $178.67 on Monday, down 4.27%, after falling nearly 9% at one point during the session. To be clear: these are all allegations.

CZ also took the opportunity to promote Binance’s tokenized NVDA stock. With U.S. markets closed over the weekend, Binance’s NVDA contract briefly traded 4.2% below Friday’s close, with $360 million in 24-hour trading volume—the highest of any tokenized stock. His line, “24/7 trading means you can get ahead when news breaks over the weekend,” wasn’t just a slogan for once. Someone really did get out ahead of the news.

Law firms are calculating damages, Washington is counting chips, and CZ is counting on a product.

Do you think 24/7 trading in tokenized stocks is an opportunity—or just another trap?
#InterestsBehindTheHeadlines,#Nvidia

Tonight at 9:30, are you watching the data—or your own position?

The U.S. October CPI report comes out tonight at 9:30 p.m., the last one before the December rate meeting. Headline CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month over month, and core CPI 0.2%—both milder than September’s 0.6% and 0.3%.

But there won’t be year-over-year figures this time: the U.S. government shutdown last October meant the Bureau of Labor Statistics couldn’t collect the data, so it can’t publish year-over-year figures. If anyone gives you a year-over-year number tonight, it isn’t official—don’t take it as fact.

$BTC is still hovering around $75,000, and the Fear and Greed Index is at 32. Over the past 24 hours, $1.1 billion was liquidated. Futures volume climbed to $180 billion, while open interest fell by 3%—quite a few people closed their positions first and are waiting to see what happens.

The data will be out in a minute, but your position has to last overnight. Think through both scenarios first: if it comes in hotter than expected, watch $74,400; if it comes in below expectations, watch $76,000. If you haven’t thought it through, don’t add to your position before the data comes out.

Will you be watching the market tonight, or checking when you wake up?
#TradingPsychology,#CPI

Nvidia’s board announced on Sunday that it had launched an independent investigation: Jensen Huang was reportedly the target of a foreign intelligence operation, and he has acknowledged to employees that he had an affair and is willing to cooperate with the investigation. The board said there is currently no reason to believe that company secrets or national security have been compromised, and Huang will remain CEO.

The other side of the story involves chips: Megaspeed, the company at the center of the matter, is a major Nvidia customer in Southeast Asia, and U.S. officials suspect it helped Beijing obtain restricted advanced AI chips. With the personal scandal layered on top of national security concerns, three House committees have already requested a briefing on November 18.

Nvidia is now the world’s second-largest company by market capitalization, valued at nearly $4.5 trillion. Will the CEO’s personal problems turn into a systemic risk for the AI sector? We’ll find out when markets open on Monday. Do you think this is just noise, or will it really affect Nvidia’s trajectory?
#热点背后的利益 #Nvidia

BTC briefly fell to $73,700 overnight, hitting its lowest level since August, and has now recovered to around $75,000. Spot ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion last week, wiping out all of this year's inflows and turning them into net outflows.

While ETFs are seeing money flow out, coins are moving off exchanges on-chain: on November 7, exchanges recorded net outflows of 4,655 BTC. Some are heading for the exits; others are quietly moving coins into cold wallets.

Next up is the U.S. October CPI report tomorrow night. If the data comes in hotter than expected, bets on rate hikes could climb further, and the $75,000 level may not hold. If inflation comes in softer, shorts may have to think twice.

Are you waiting for CPI, or have you already made your move?
#行情分析 #Bitcoin

CZ said something very honest yesterday, and something that sounded good.

The honest part: crypto prices generally move in sync. When one thing goes wrong, the whole industry falls. Over the past 30 days, SOL is down 18%, XRP 16%, ETH nearly 10%, and $BTC 7%. BNB, by contrast, fell the least, down just 5.7%—the data is on his side.

The nice-sounding part was the line, “Decentralized, but united.” Binance was just hacked for $6.3 billion on October 29. Calling for unity at a time like this sounds like an industry pledge—and also a way of saying: stop piling on me.

There’s nothing wrong with unity itself. The question is: who pays the price for it? When something goes wrong, everyone falls together. But when times are good, you don’t see anyone sharing their gains with you.

Do you think “when one thrives, we all thrive” is a fact, or just something people remember to say for comfort after something goes wrong?

#热点背后的利益 #Bitcoin
#热点背后的利益 #Bitcoin

The $76,000 level was officially lost yesterday.

$BTC 11 closed at $74,585 on November 8, while the 365-day moving average stood at $76,490—the closing price ended up below the average. It briefly fell to $73,708 intraday, its lowest level since August.

What’s more worth watching is where the money is going: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $1.28 billion in outflows last week. On November 6 alone, $410 million flowed out, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $400 million of that. The Fear & Greed Index is at 29, still in fear territory.

Losing the moving average doesn’t mean another leg down is imminent. It means just one thing: the average buying price over the past year is now underwater across the board, and there are fewer and fewer buyers stepping in to support the price.

Tomorrow at 21:30, the U.S. October CPI will be released. If the data comes in hotter than expected again, the prospect of rate hikes will remain on the table. Do you think Bitcoin can reclaim this moving average by the end of next week?

#行情分析 #Bitcoin
#行情分析 #Bitcoin

In the same week, the two AI giants headed in opposite directions in the capital markets: ahead of Anthropic’s IPO, one buyer was willing to offer only $1.1 trillion—nearly half the $2 trillion valuation expected a month earlier. OpenAI, meanwhile, raised $11 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, and its first funding round hasn’t even fully closed yet.
On one side, buyers are starting to do the math; on the other, money is still flowing in. The disagreement isn’t about whether AI is useful, but whether the pace of making money can catch up with the pace of spending it. Anthropic still has nearly $900 billion in computing commitments on its books, while OpenAI had originally planned to raise $30 billion in this round but has so far raised only $11 billion.
The market hasn’t stopped believing in AI—it’s starting to ask a more specific question: how many years will it take for these valuations to be backed by real money? Do you think AI companies are overvalued or undervalued right now?
#热点背后的利益 #AI

A screenshot claimed that Musk had told everyone to withdraw their coins from Binance, whose 80% market share was strangling the industry.

On November 7, the post went viral on X. About an hour later, CZ replied: “Fake,” and attached a fact-check from Grok—the post didn’t exist anywhere on Musk’s account. Musk himself then chimed in: “Yeah, I never wrote anything like that. This is made up.”

The timing was spot-on: Binance had just been hacked for about $6.3 billion on October 29, and people were already on edge. A screenshot claiming “Musk says to withdraw” was enough to make plenty of people’s hands tremble.

In the past, spreading rumors meant making up a story. Now AI can make even a screenshot’s layout look completely authentic. The cost of spreading rumors has hit rock bottom, while the cost of checking them falls entirely on everyone who comes across them.

When you see a screenshot like this, is your first instinct to believe it—or to look it up?

#热点背后的利益 #Bitcoin
#热点背后的利益 #Bitcoin

Fear Index: 28, inching back up after hitting extreme fear at 25.

$BTC closed at $75,868 last night, moving just 0.03% in a day, and still down 2.21% over seven days. The index says people are afraid; the market says people are waiting—and fear and waiting may look alike, but they lead to completely different actions.

I was reminded of something TingHu said back in February: when nobody wants to buy, it's often because many people think Bitcoin has no future. He pointed to the hash war at the end of 2018 and the FTX collapse at the end of 2022.

Those old words aren't a prediction, much less a call to buy the dip. They simply remind us of one thing: the feeling that “nobody wants to buy” has surfaced more than once in history. In hindsight, each time looked like an opportunity; in the moment, it felt like standing at the edge of a cliff.

Are you afraid right now, or are you waiting? Can you tell the difference between the two?

#交易心理 #Bitcoin
#交易心理 #Bitcoin

Nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, far above expectations of 65,000, and bets on a December rate hike suddenly jumped back to 80%. But BTC is still stuck at $76,000, with the 50-week moving average right beneath it.

ETFs saw $1.28 billion in outflows over the week, as retail investors headed for the exits. Meanwhile, Strive added 15,000 coins in a month, and Kazakhstan’s central bank entered the market. Same poker table: some are leaving while others are raising the stakes.

Divergences are most telling when prices fall. Next up is the November 10 CPI report. If the data come in hotter than expected again, this moving average may not hold. Are you waiting for CPI, or have you already made your move? #行情分析 #Bitcoin
#行情分析 #Bitcoin

On the day of the big drop, X was even livelier than the markets. Musk posted an image poking fun at CZ, CZ replied with a meme, and Yi He posted a red-and-blue pill, asking everyone which one they’d choose. Sha Po Lang posted twice in a row: first saying this crash was no ordinary one, then urging Trump to hang in there.

What’s interesting is that everyone was talking about the drop, but no one dared say whether prices would rise tomorrow. Anyone can weigh in when prices are falling; predicting whether they’ll rise or fall is the real test. Get it right and nobody remembers; get it wrong and the whole internet takes screenshots.

When memes are flying everywhere, it’s precisely a sign that nobody feels sure of what’s coming. Those who are confident are watching the charts; those who aren’t are watching the spectacle. What about you—yesterday, were you scrolling through memes or keeping your eyes on the charts? #交易心理 #Bitcoin
#交易心理 #Bitcoin

The dip-buyers came out ahead today, but that’s not the whole story.

The Nasdaq just had its worst day since April yesterday. Today it rose 1.09%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded 4.21%, and Nvidia gained 2.8%. Stepping in after just one down day takes some nerve.

But here’s how the numbers really stack up: Nvidia fell 9.3% on Thursday, and Friday’s 2.8% gain made back less than a third of that. The Nasdaq dropped 5.52% on Thursday, then rose 1.09% on Friday—making back about a fifth. It’s easy to fall; climbing back takes a lot longer.

On the first day of a rebound, it’s hard to tell whether we’ve hit bottom or just caught our breath. My simple rule: don’t focus on one day—see whether the market can hold its ground next week. If it does, we can turn the page on this sell-off. If not, today’s dip-buyers may have to pay tuition all over again next week.

Do you think this is a V-shaped recovery, or just a bounce after a steep drop?
#TradingPsychology,#USStocks,#Nvidia

165,000 vs. 65,000: Nonfarm payrolls nearly tripled expectations, and $BTC still broke below $75,000 first.

At 9:30 p.m. last night, the U.S. reported 165,000 new nonfarm jobs in October, versus expectations of just 65,000. Unemployment was 4.1%, and hourly wages rose 3.1% year over year—everything beat expectations. On the news, the odds of a December rate hike jumped to nearly 80%, and Treasury yields surged. $BTC promptly fell below $75,000, its lowest level since August, before returning to around $76,000 this morning.

Interestingly, the same data sent U.S. stocks in the opposite direction: the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, and Nvidia rebounded 2.8%. Stocks up, crypto down. The fear isn’t a weak economy—it’s an economy that’s too strong, bringing rate hikes back into play.

Yesterday I said prices could fall either way, good news or bad. Today, that’s half-proven: good data, and prices still fell. Are you holding your positions based on a “strong economy” or on “rate cuts”? Those two rationales are now in conflict.
#MarketAnalysis,$BTC ,#NonfarmPayrolls

Nvidia shed $600 billion in two days, and the Nasdaq had its worst day since April. The market is starting to do the math: AI has burned through so much money—when will it earn it back? Bitcoin fell too, dropping from $80,000 back to $75,000 and wiping out a day’s worth of election-driven gains. Do you think this is a normal pullback, or are we turning bearish?
#USStocks

The dip just keeps dipping—why are U.S. stocks falling harder than altcoins?

After two days of gains, $BTC has fallen back to 76,000.

It was still above 80,600 yesterday, but this morning it was already back around 76,300—a drop of more than 5% in one day. ETFs didn’t come to the rescue either: a single Fidelity fund saw outflows of nearly $200 million. The Fear & Greed Index is still hovering around 30, firmly in fear territory.

At 9:30 p.m. tonight, the U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report comes out: the market expects 65,000 new jobs, compared with just 29,000 last time, and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. The awkward part is that either a good or bad result could send markets lower—a very strong report would kill hopes for rate cuts; a very weak one would revive recession fears. There’s only one way through: a result that’s “just right”—and getting just the right result is what markets are worst at.

So don’t try to guess the numbers tonight; people who do won’t sleep well. Think ahead: whatever the data brings, up or down, what are you planning to do tomorrow?
#MarketAnalysis,#BTC