蜡币小鑫

Was ruined by $MARSCOIN , and at night I dreamed of $MARSCOIN
It’s breaking new highs

Marscoin—since it got listed on Binance, it dropped three times. It’s really got me trapped, but I haven’t cut my losses

It’s been consolidating for half a month. It’s starting to rise steadily now; this time it has to go to Mars

When the market comes, you have to be bold and act

Just yesterday I said that an old-school MEME hadn’t risen yet, and in the middle of the night they all pumped together

When the market moves, sectors will rotate and run up one by one

You might not believe yourself, but you can’t not believe your cousin @CZ

This round of gains has nearly squeezed the bears—shouldn’t it be time to squeeze the bulls too?

Aster has launched the POLYMARKETUSD1 perpetual contract

In this round of Polymarket funding, the benefits may not be limited to Polymarket itself.

From a sector perspective, I actually think this is a solid win for Predict.

Polymarket’s previous funding valued it at around $12 billion. It later rose to $15 billion, and now the market is even starting to discuss valuations above $20 billion. More importantly, the funding agreement reportedly includes token warrants.

This is good not only for Polymarket, but also for Predict.

Previously, Predict needed to prove to the market first whether prediction markets are a business that can be developed long-term.

Now Polymarket has already completed most of the education for the entire industry.

What Predict needs to prove next is no longer whether the sector has a future, but whether it can capture a portion of users, trading volume, and liquidity from it.

Also, prediction markets are not strictly winner-takes-all.

Users will use multiple platforms at the same time, comparing odds, depth, and settlement efficiency. Price gaps between platforms will also attract arbitrage capital to move back and forth.

The bigger Polymarket gets, the more users and capital it brings in; in the end, some of that will spill over to Predict.

The valuation logic is the same.

When the valuation of the market leader is pushed up to $20 billion, capital will naturally look for targets in the same space with lower valuations and faster growth. At that point, Predict becomes the most direct sector proxy.

So whether it’s Polymarket’s funding or the expectations around token issuance, the impact on Predict is not just competitive pressure.

Polymarket is responsible for taking prediction markets from 0 to 1—boosting the industry’s valuation, doing education, and driving liquidity.

What Predict needs to do is, over the next 1 to N stages, secure its own position.

At least for now, prediction markets no longer need to prove whether they have a future.

Ahead of the rate hike, your cousin @CZ already gave a hint the day before: every drop is an opportunity.

If the U.S. rate hike doesn’t fall, and the yen rate hike doesn’t fall, then the only possible trend next is one thing:

Your cousin @CZ gave another hint, so you know what to do next, right?

Seize every opportunity during market downturns!

The Fed’s rate hike is already clearly telegraphed.

Predict the latest odds:

🔹 Hike by 25 basis points: 88%

🔹 Keep unchanged: 13%

🔹 Hike by 50 basis points: 2%

At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 17, the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision. If it hikes by 25 basis points, the interest rate will rise from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%, which will be the first rate hike since July 2023.

The market has fully priced in the 25-basis-point move. What truly determines $BTC
and the direction of the Nasdaq index is the dot plot and the post-meeting remarks:

If the guidance hints at a pause after the hike, it may mean the bearish impact is already priced in, and the market could drop first and then rebound;

If it suggests further hikes in December, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will continue strengthening. BTC will face pressure, and altcoins will be the real disaster area;

If it unexpectedly keeps rates unchanged, risk assets could surge instantly, but the market may also question the Fed’s resolve to suppress inflation, causing long-term Treasury yields to actually rise.

What’s more troublesome is that three developments are happening at the same time this week: crypto regulation, U.S. dollar liquidity, and the yen carry trade. All three lines are simultaneously disturbing the market.

Teachers, happy holidays! Thank you for everything you’ve done for me this past year—teaching me what memes are, what application coins are, what unbeatable angles are, and all of it.

How many days did it take for Mars’ market value to fall to nothing—then along comes a bull. Meanwhile, #牛来 is still at a hundred-million market cap.

This Mars really can keep falling—down from 0.26 all the way to 0.12....

Mars’s profits have already been given back; it’s even lost the principal.

This kind of “shitcoin” is too volatile. If you don’t take profits when you have them, a single pullback wipes out all the profit.

$MARSCOIN sold half at the high point, and after the pullback, they even added back in halfway.

This pullback’s shakeout is very intense—those who added on halfway are all losing big.

They didn’t exit at the high. Now they won’t sell either; they’ll keep firmly holding and waiting for the reversal.

📣predict.fun's API Key can now be requested by yourself!

Previously, to get a Predict API Key, you had to first join the official Discord, then open a Support Ticket, explain your use case, and wait for manual review and issuance.

Now this process has finally been simplified. You no longer need to issue invoices in Discord—just go directly to the developer console:

Application steps:

1️⃣ Open the Developer Console
You can register and log in using Discord, Google, or email.

2️⃣ Create an Application
After entering the dashboard, select Create Application, then fill in the application name and purpose according to the prompts.

3️⃣ Generate an API Key
Once the app is created, you can generate a new Key. After copying it, be sure to store it securely. Do not post it in group chats, take screenshots, or upload it to public code repositories.

4️⃣ Check Usage
In the backend, you can directly view API call volume, your current limit, and usage status. Management is much clearer than before.

5️⃣ Request a Higher Tier
API limits are divided into Volume-based Tiers based on your transaction volume over the past 30 days. Once you meet the corresponding criteria, you can manually request a higher tier in the backend.

6️⃣ Import Old Keys
API Keys previously obtained via Discord can also be imported into the new backend for unified management.

According to the official documentation, the default limit for mainnet API Keys is:
240 Requests/Minute

However, note that new applications’ order placement and cancellation requests are also subject to a separate Trade Burst Limit restriction. 240 RPM does not mean you can place and cancel orders indefinitely at high frequency.

Also, an API Key is only a credential for the mainnet interface. If you want your program to place orders, cancel orders, or read personal orders, you’ll also need to sign with your wallet to obtain a JWT.

The South Korean market is also joining the coin-stock craze—AVAX is getting a leg up

South Korea is preparing to move settlement for bonds, funds, stocks, and even stablecoins onto the blockchain, and $AVAX has already made its way into the financial infrastructure of a major brokerage.

Hanwha Investment & Securities began development with FairSquare Lab as early as 2025, and the platform is now complete, supporting networks such as Avax and HypeBesu. Although it is not exclusive to AVAX, being able to enter the technology stack of a major brokerage alongside enterprise-grade blockchains is itself an important institutional endorsement.

The relevant South Korean laws will take effect on February 4, 2027, formally recognizing distributed ledgers for securities registration.

The regulatory roadmap will start with institutional bonds, private MMFs, and unlisted stocks, gradually expand to publicly issued securities, and eventually explore an on-chain payment system connected to stablecoins. Financial Services Commission of Korea

Hanwha is clearly not doing a one-off proof of concept:

→ Hanwha affiliates collectively hold about 9.6% of Securitize
→ Invested about KRW 30 billion in Digital Asset, the company behind Canton Network
→ Completed an Avalanche-compatible tokenized securities platform
Issuance, registration, circulation, settlement—it is assembling an entire tokenized finance landscape.

The real bullish case for AVAX is not “how much fees it will add immediately,” but rather:

Before South Korea’s securities tokenization is officially opened up, Avax has already secured a ticket into the technology stack of licensed financial institutions.

Once financial infrastructure completes compliant integration, custody, and system integration, switching costs become extremely high. Getting into the tech stack today could mean taking part in standards-setting, asset issuance, and liquidity accumulation tomorrow.

Of course, it has not yet been disclosed whether the platform is deployed on the public C-Chain or whether AVAX is used to pay gas, so one cannot directly equate securities scale with AVAX buying pressure.

In the past, the market priced AVAX as “just another public chain”;

In the future, the market may reprice it as—

Hanwha is only the entry point; the real incremental upside is South Korea’s capital markets moving on-chain.

Added a bit more to the position $MARSCOIN

The BSC counterattack has begun, Mars Coin is going to Mars

Missed the big money
Pounding the chest and stamping the feet
Started fomo
Grinding to farm chains
All kinds of rugs
Charging wildly at beasts
Keep recharging
Going crazy getting ripped off
Crying in agony
Sitting idle is useless
Review and accept defeat
Start slacking off
Missed the big money

Going out to have fun in Shenzhen, I wanted to experience the Yamase, so I asked around, and the broker asked me whether I wanted the Russian or Ukrainian girl. He asked whether I support Putin or Zelensky. I said, “What does it matter?” He said, “Every choice you make affects the world order. If you choose the Russian girl, she will send money back, turning into bullets aimed at Ukraine. If you choose the Ukrainian girl, she will also send money back to purchase weapons to resist.” I hesitated for a long time—could my choice really have such an impact? That one choice of mine might even be the fuse for a third world war. Later, I felt I shouldn’t disrupt the world order, so I picked both.

Can Predict top $HYPE put it on $103 within 10 months and overtake $SOL?

I didn't buy it.

First glance, I thought it was a comparison by FDV, thinking: can HYPE flip Solana within a month? Then I looked again: token price instead.

Currently:

$HYPE : $83.39, FDV about $8.0B
$SOL: $102.9, FDV about $64.8B

Their FDVs differ by about 8.1x, but the token price only differs by $19.51.

If SOL stays flat, HYPE only needs to rise about 23.4% to reach around $103 to complete the overtake.

Even if HYPE rises to $103, based on the current circulating supply, its FDV would be only about $9.9B—still far below SOL.

This is the “single-price illusion” caused by token supply.

But note: the real threshold for this event isn’t a fixed $103—it’s the constantly changing SOL price:

If SOL drops 10%: HYPE only needs to rise about 11%
If SOL stays unchanged: HYPE needs to rise about 23.4%
If SOL rises 10%: HYPE then needs to rise about 35.7%

At its core, this is going long the relative exchange rate of HYPE/SOL.

A 23% rise in HYPE over a month isn’t outrageous. The real challenge is:

When HYPE hits $103, will SOL already be at $120?

HYPE being strong isn’t enough—it must be stronger than SOL.

Japan’s government bonds are almost yielding 3% now—Japan was once the world’s cheapest pool of capital.

Now the auction yield on 10-year bonds is touching 3%, and US 10-year Treasuries have also surged to 4.78%. That means the strategy of using low-interest yen leverage to buy global assets is becoming more expensive.

In crypto, the fear isn’t that Japan suddenly collapses—it’s that carry-trade funding will slowly drain away. Next, if the yen strengthens and bond yields keep rising, who would still be willing to take over overvalued assets?