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TSMC Raises Prices by 20%: AI Chip Packaging Becomes “Hard Currency”

An explosion in AI demand has overwhelmed capacity, prompting TSMC to announce a 10% to 20% increase in prices for its CoWoS advanced packaging. This core technology has spread beyond GPUs to server CPUs and custom ASICs, while longer testing cycles are further squeezing supply. Equipment lead times have stretched from 3–6 months to 6–8 months, and equipment makers can’t expand capacity fast enough to keep pace. Downstream customers have completely lost their bargaining power, and the industry’s mindset has shifted dramatically: “As long as we can secure a delivery slot, we’ll place the order without haggling.”

中国工业利润冰火两重天：电子业翻倍暴增，汽车业利润断崖下跌

2026年前三季度，中国规模以上工业企业营收达106.21万亿元，同比增长6.6%，整体利润率为5.68%，略有提升。但行业分化极为剧烈，呈现“冰火两重天”的景象。

以人工智能为核心的电子行业成为最大亮点，利润实现翻倍增长，带动上游原材料行业利润同步高增，成为整体利润改善的主要引擎。相比之下，汽车行业深陷困境，面临成本上涨与需求疲软的双重压力，盈利表现惨淡。

具体来看，1-9月汽车产量为2337万台，同比下降4%；收入80435亿元，仅微增2.6%；而成本增速达3.8%，利润则大幅下滑23%至2675亿元，销售利润率降至3.3%。进入9月，情况更为严峻：当月汽车产量306万台，收入10374亿元，同比增长0.6%，但成本增速升至2.5%，利润暴跌68%至142亿元，销售利润率仅1.4%，创下近四年最低水平。

一边是科技赛道的高歌猛进，一边是传统制造的艰难承压，中国工业的结构性转型正在加速上演。

摩根士丹利点名：宁德时代第三季收入同比暴涨59%，但盈利被“组合波动”拖了后腿

宁德时代第三季收入同比增长59%，货量和全球市占率双双强劲，但产品组合变化超出预期，导致盈利能力被高估。摩根士丹利计算后发现，单位净利环比下降约29元/Wh，主要因为锂库存亏损、汇兑亏损、消费税及增值税退税减少、客户回扣以及产品结构调整等因素。不过，剔除一次性或可逆项目后，第三季单位净利表现仍颇为坚韧。

该行下调2024年净利预测6%至894亿元，2027年和2028年分别下调7%和10%。尽管如此，摩根士丹利仍看好长期前景：除美国外，全球电气化潜在市场或将在未来五年翻倍；钠电池商业化周期已拉开帷幕；换电联盟进展顺利。但短期来看，预计宁德时代H股未来三个月仍将波动，H/A溢价或继续收窄。

因此，摩根士丹利将宁德时代H股评级由“增持”降至“与大市同步”，目标价从705港元暴跌44.7%至390港元；A股目标价则从500元下调33%至335元，并从首选股名单中撤掉A股，但维持“增持”评级不变。

Tom Lee: Ethereum could reach $62,000 in the next crypto market cycle.

This is fucking genius, believe it or not?? Either way, I believe it 🐶🐶🐶

#PourAFriend

The US dollar is on fire! It just broke through the 102 mark and is up another 0.25% today. This rally has shot through the roof, leaving global markets on edge. What signals are behind these exchange-rate swings? Let's see whether markets around the world follow suit.

An SEC filing disclosed that SpaceX and Apollo Global Management have signed a major financing lease deal. Apollo will fund the purchase of GPU clusters and lease them to SpaceX, with the total principal expected to reach $40 billion. The “lease instead of buy” arrangement will officially begin when the GPUs are delivered in the first half of 2027, securing the resources SpaceX needs in advance for Starship and Starlink’s computing ambitions.

China’s most-active caustic soda futures contract plunged 5% intraday to 1,519 yuan per ton (about $228), breaking below its “floor price” since listing and setting a new record low.

KB Securities: Samsung and SK Hynix shares are as undervalued as they were during the global financial crisis

KB Securities, one of South Korea’s leading brokerages, has issued a new assessment: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares are now as undervalued as they were during the global financial crisis. Profits at both companies are surging, but their share prices have yet to follow suit.

Although Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares have risen 65% and 88%, respectively, since the start of this year, as of the close on October 23, they were still down 36% and 52%, respectively, from their late-June highs. In a report published on October 26, Kim Dong-won, head of KB Securities’ research division, noted that the two companies’ price-to-earnings ratios had fallen to around 3 times.

Both companies will release their third-quarter earnings this week, with combined operating profit for the quarter expected to reach 184.4 trillion won (about $139.1 billion). Investors will focus on three key points: HBM4 supply, progress on long-term agreements, and shareholder return policies.

The report has undoubtedly sounded an alarm for the market: “prices up, profits down”—hardware earnings are soaring, so why do the share prices seem as inconspicuous as pedestrians crossing the street? The answer may emerge when the earnings are released.

From “Mowing the Lawn” to “Uprooting the Trees”: U.S. Military Prepares for Iran in 96 Hours

CNN, citing two U.S. officials, reported that U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East are ready and could launch a large-scale military operation against Iran within 96 hours of receiving the order. The U.S. military has long relied on “mowing the lawn”-style precision strikes, weakening only radar and missile-launch sites. But this time, the operation could escalate into “uprooting the trees.” One official bluntly called it “a large-scale operation.” Insiders say the question is not “whether to strike,” but “when.” The window is set for later this year, with a strike most likely delayed until after the U.S. midterm elections.

Apple’s first foldable phone, the iPhone Duo, sells out immediately after launch; supply chain rushes to increase orders by 30% as it vies for 40% of the market

According to Taiwan’s Economic Daily News, demand for Apple’s first foldable phone, the iPhone Duo, has surged, prompting Apple to ask suppliers to increase order volumes by 30%. Industry insiders say initial stock is severely limited due to assembly yield constraints and demand from Apple fans far exceeding expectations, with a second wave of shipments not expected until early next year. Market research firms have raised their estimate for this year’s shipments from 6 million units to 8–10 million. The 2027 shipment target is set at 33 million units. Based on these estimates, the iPhone Duo could capture around 40% of the global foldable-phone market next year, knocking Samsung from the top spot.

Musk: As AI computing burns through cash, new cloud providers without “unicorn-level” revenue are headed for bankruptcy

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk posted on X on Sunday that SpaceX had just completed $4 billion in debt financing—and that every dollar would go toward buying GPUs.

He pointed to a harsh reality: “Financing conditions in the debt markets are now clearly divided. Companies without substantial revenue independent of AI data centers will find it very difficult to raise money.”

In other words, investors have started picking off the suckers: if you’re borrowing to expand your AI computing capacity without any other stable source of revenue to back you up, don’t expect to raise more money.

Musk predicted that a new wave of smaller companies specializing in AI cloud computing—such as Nebius and CoreWeave, newer cloud providers serving tech companies—would face “massive consolidation and a wave of failures.”

He also made his position clear: SpaceX will not acquire any of these new cloud providers. “It makes no sense.”

Unlike large, diversified companies with businesses across multiple industries, nearly all these new cloud providers have staked their futures on AI computing. But the market has turned bearish: investors fear that the “borrow money to buy GPUs and sell computing power” model is unsustainable, and have begun selling related stocks.

This time, Musk isn’t just posting—he’s telling the entire industry that it’s only a matter of time before the cash-burning gamble on AI computing produces winners and losers.

On the CME screen, the U.S. dollar/Brazilian real futures contract suddenly “jumped” to 5.23, after sitting at 5.01 just a second earlier. Up more than 4% in a single day, the real’s “free fall” nearly stopped traders’ hearts—the Brazilian central bank is probably in for a sleepless night.

Gaoxin Retail forecasts HK$5.2B loss as store overhaul pains mount

Gaoxin Retail (6808.HK) issued a profit warning, forecasting a loss attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB500 million to RMB550 million (≈US$6.4 million to US$70.4 million) for the six months ended September 30, compared with a loss attributable to shareholders of RMB123 million in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) is expected to be approximately RMB1 billion to RMB1.05 billion.

The group said the loss was mainly due to the following factors: although the decline in average transaction value has narrowed, market competition has diverted customer traffic, leading to lower footfall and putting pressure on revenue; cost savings have partially offset the impact of lower revenue on profits; adjustments to merchandise and the supply chain, as well as renovations to stores and shopping arcades, remain in a transitional phase; and some stores slated for closure continued to incur losses during the transition, creating short-term pressure on profits for the period.

In response to these short-term growing pains, Gaoxin Retail said it will continue to optimize store rental costs, adjust underperforming store assets, and pursue structural transformation. As the transformation progresses, improvements in merchandise competitiveness, store efficiency and asset structure will strengthen the foundation for long-term operations. The group believes that after these short-term difficulties, it will be positioned for more stable growth.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak declared that Russia is ready to supply the United States with any amount of diesel. It was a pretty defiant statement—basically, “You can have as much as you want.” With a major energy exporter on one side and a market with strong demand on the other, this move has thrust the diesel trade into the spotlight. It looks like another shift may be coming in the global energy landscape.

The founder of SemiAnalysis says that, apart from memory, the semiconductor industry’s biggest bottleneck is substrates. Investment is severely lacking not only in substrates themselves, but also in PCB materials. Japanese manufacturers of these materials are too conservative and unwilling to expand capacity, which could disrupt the entire supply chain—from accelerators to CPUs—due to substrate shortages over the next two years. This may be the industry’s biggest choke point.

Mass General Brigham recently announced that its research team trained an AI foundation model, FAHR-Face (a foundation AI model for health recognition), using more than 40 million facial images, and published a paper on it in The Lancet Digital Health. Based on the model, the team developed two tools: one estimates patients’ biological age, while the other predicts cancer patients’ survival outcomes directly from facial photos.

Musk tweeted on October 24 that the Ukrainian military had used Starlink for offensive drone strikes, violating its terms of service. The relevant loophole was closed last week. He emphasized that the commercial version of Starlink never permits military offensive operations, while Starshield is a separate system controlled by the U.S. government.

China’s leading storage module maker, Longsys (德明利, 001309.SZ), has delivered a third-quarter report that can only be described as a knockout. Revenue for the first three quarters reached RMB 28.555 billion (about US$4.25 billion), surging 328.81% year over year. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company came in at RMB 8.746 billion (about US$1.3 billion), soaring 32,399.91%—that’s not a doubling year over year, but a 324-fold increase.

Q3 alone: revenue was RMB 11.645 billion (about US$1.73 billion), up 356.64% year over year; net profit was RMB 2.729 billion (about US$410 million), up 2,902.75%. Compared with Q2’s RMB 2.671 billion, Q3 profit edged up 2%, holding firmly at the RMB 2.7 billion level.

The core drivers are crystal clear: a recovery in the storage industry, a rock-solid supply chain, and the adoption of its self-developed controller chips. Longsys has transformed the traditional contract-manufacturing model of “buying chips and handling packaging and testing” into a full-stack solution built around “self-developed controllers + firmware + modules.” Enterprise storage now accounts for a significantly larger share of revenue, as the product mix has shifted from consumer-grade to higher-margin enterprise-grade products.

The market’s concern that the inventory cycle has peaked doesn’t hold up here. While the industry is still competing on price, Longsys has already used its self-developed controllers to secure a technological moat, capturing the full benefit of the cyclical upturn.

France’s “Yellow Vest” wave sweeps across Europe: Macron’s government faces mounting pressure

France has seen unprecedented anti-government demonstrations, with around 410,000 people taking part across the country (unions put the figure at 800,000). Police and protesters clashed violently in Paris, Marseille and elsewhere, and around 1,000 people were arrested.

In the capital, Paris, more than 110,000 protesters took to the streets. Some banks, luxury boutiques, clothing stores and grocery shops installed protective boarding. Cultural landmarks including the Louvre, the Grand Palais and the Picasso Museum closed temporarily, while around 20 metro stations were forced to shut. The “Yellow Vest” movement announced plans to hold more than 500 demonstrations nationwide, directly demanding that President Macron step down. The government responded by tightening security.

Protesters were demonstrating against government policies, poor conditions in schools and the rising cost of living. Police used tear gas to disperse crowds in Paris, Lyon, Marseille and other cities. In Marseille, young people set rubbish bins on fire to block roads and threw stones and glass bottles at security forces. Police said several businesses, including jewelry shops, had been looted. Clashes also broke out in Lyon, Bordeaux, Nantes and other cities.

The interior minister said in the evening that nearly 1,000 people had been arrested by the time he spoke. To prevent unrest from spreading, the government deployed around 70,000 police officers and gendarmes to respond to possible violence, and accused far-left activists and criminal gangs of inciting the unrest.

The wave of demonstrations in France quickly spread to neighboring European countries. In Brussels, Belgian police clashed with protesters, using tear gas and pepper spray. Several cities in Italy and Albania also saw protests, marking a second consecutive weekend of demonstrations.

On September 24, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. issued the Announcement on Revisions to the Compilation Methodologies for the SSE Composite Indices, proposing revisions to the SSE Composite Index, SSE A Share Index, SSE Circulation Index and SSE STAR Composite Index. The revisions will take effect on October 26, 2026. The main changes include setting a 15% cap on the weight of any single constituent and changing the exclusion date for securities subject to risk warnings from “the trading day following the second Friday of the month after the risk warning takes effect” to “the trading day following the second Friday of the month after the risk warning is announced.” All other compilation rules will remain unchanged.