黑白资本

$ON ’s position grew by just 25% in 14 hours, while the price rose 64%.

Holdings went from 65.04 million to 81.56 million coins, and the notional value nearly doubled from 11.89 million to 24.40 million. They added money, not coins.

The long/short account ratio fell from 1.70 to 0.96: retail short positions rose from 37% to 51%, while large holders’ position ratio dropped from 1.76 to 1.50.

The most striking part, to me, is this: large holders are reducing their longs while retail traders are adding shorts, and together they’re supplying the fuel.

Trading volume is 180 million against 24.40 million in open interest—7.4 times as much—with not a penny of that money locked up.

This is the most fragile kind of setup; a short squeeze can’t keep going for long.

Watch 0.272. The 20:00 hourly candle opened with 109 million coins stacked there. If it breaks, those chasing the price higher will turn into selling pressure.

The previous post said $ETH to watch 2,206; if it broke, selling pressure would have the upper hand for a while. Today, it’s at 2,122. This level has been lost, and on November 9, we’ll settle the rest of the score in three parts.

Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index is at 29, down from 37 a week ago and 64 a month ago. It took just one month to slide from greed into fear.

Cycle: BTC has closed five consecutive weekly candles in the red and has also lost its 50-week moving average. If it fails to reclaim it, 70,000 is the next stop.

Interest rates: U.S. October CPI comes out tomorrow, November 10. The market is pricing in roughly an 80% chance of a rate hike in December. If inflation comes in hotter than expected again, the bottoming process could drag on.

Watch 2,100. This morning’s wick dipped around that level. If it can’t recover, the 2,000 mark will be next on the agenda.

$15 in gas siphoned off $2.5 billion. Bloomberg has broken down the numbers.

At 8:20 p.m. on October 29, a hacker used a valid signature from Binance 14’s wallet to submit an authorization to Ethereum: from then on, his code could act on the wallet. The fee was $15, and not a single cent was moved.

Three minutes and 24 seconds later, $2.5 billion was transferred in one go: 167,464 tokens of $ETH plus more than 60 other tokens, accounting for 40% of the $6.3 billion in stolen funds.

The authorization was embedded on-chain. Even Binance couldn’t revoke it by disabling withdrawals. The hacker came back and swept the wallet four more times, moving a total of $3.6 billion.

The defenders spent the whole time chasing. This is the ugliest line in the ledger.

I’m watching the recovery: if the frozen $2.85 billion can’t reach $3.5 billion, Binance’s reputation repair will have to be measured quarter by quarter.

Strategy’s 848,500 bitcoins have all fallen below its cost basis today.

The Q3 report on October 29 showed holdings of 848,517 bitcoins at an average cost of $75,446 each. The price on November 9 is $74,155, a shortfall of $1,290 per bitcoin and an unrealized paper loss of about $1.1 billion.

There are two more figures to note: this year it sold $431.8 million worth of bitcoin (6,948 coins at an average price of about $62,152) to pay preferred stock dividends and buy back STRC; then from the end of August to the end of September, it bought another 7,218 coins at an average price of $81,477. Those coins are now down $7,321 each, for a total loss of about $52.9 million.

There’s a cushion, too: $5.07 billion in cash reserves, enough to cover 3.4 years of dividends, so it won’t be forced to sell in a hurry. But the report states that when dividends come due, it will keep selling—the bitcoin backing each share.

Watch the $75,446 cost-basis line. If it can’t hold, that means even the largest holder can’t get back above breakeven, and this entire rally was just short covering.

$BTC

18 months, 4 requests for records, 0 records.

On November 5, Senator Blumenthal sent letters to Binance, Tether, WLFI, and the issuer of TRUMP, requesting investigative records by January 4 next year. Binance’s letter: four requests since February this year, and not a single document received.

The biggest discrepancy: Binance says it transacted $110,000 with four Iranian exchanges last year; the reported figure is $1.7 billion—a 15,000-fold difference.

Three dates: today is Binance’s deadline to confirm receipt; on November 30, WLFI and the TRUMP issuer begin submitting records; on January 3, the new Congress convenes, and voluntary cooperation becomes compulsory.

Watch November 30: if WLFI’s submission is thin, January subpoenas are all but certain. $USDT

Binance’s stablecoin reserves are down $9 billion.

On-chain figures for November 9: After the hacking incident, Binance’s stablecoin reserves fell from $41 billion to $32 billion; its BTC reserves dropped from 730,000 to 673,000, and its ETH reserves from 3.48 million to 3.08 million.

That’s 56,300 fewer BTC, worth about $4.2 billion at $75,000 each; 400,000 fewer ETH, worth $860 million; plus $9 billion in stablecoins. Altogether, about $14 billion has left across these three assets.

It’s stablecoins, not coin prices, that tell us people are withdrawing. When prices fall, shrinking reserves are just a paper loss; stablecoins are cash on the exchange. A $9 billion drop means people are converting back to cash and moving it out.

The latest daily net inflow was just $28 million—not much.

I’m watching for the next reserve update: if $USDT doesn’t climb back to $35 billion, then that $9 billion is really gone.

$JCT There are fireworks to watch again tonight. I’m too chicken, so all I can do is snag the freebies 😁

Turnover ten times in a single day.

$JCT 24-hour trading volume was $650 million, while open interest in the contracts amounted to $63 million—a ratio of 10.3. The entire market’s inventory changed hands ten times in a day; nobody is here to hold.

Funding is settled every four hours. In the last period, shorts paid longs 0.354%; the estimate for the next period is 0.49%. With six periods a day, the hard cost is about 2%. The funding rate is a measure of how much of the 401% rally came from shorts being forced to buy back.

The price action doesn’t line up with value either: across three settlement windows, the mark price went from 0.0027 to 0.0098, then shot straight to 0.0133 in the final hour. It didn’t climb—it jumped.

My read is that this is leveraged traders踩ing on each other, not price discovery. Only a break above 0.0149 would set up a second wave; otherwise, treat this as the tail end of liquidations.

One is selling, the other is withdrawing. Keep them separate.
On November 8, Ai Yi monitoring: A restaking whale with an address starting 0x924 redeemed 7,500 $ETH from Etherfi over three days, worth about $17.11 million, and deposited it all into Binance—possibly to sell.
There are still 1,483.94 tokens staked on Kelp DAO, the next batch that hasn’t moved.
Meanwhile, Arkham is monitoring 0x4AB, which withdrew 13,077 tokens from Binance over six days at an average price of about $2,290. The current price is $2,240, with unrealized losses exceeding $600,000.
In the same week, sellers sent coins in while buyers moved coins out—taking opposite sides.
Watch $2,206, the low that failed to hold on November 6. If it breaks, the withdrawing trader will lose even more, while the sellers will have their moment.

They were touting 4,000 coins, but have fewer than 40 left on the books.

In its November 4 announcement, Daling said it mined 110 coins and sold 172 from September 3 to November 2, at an average price of $80,077, raising $13.77 million.

Before that: from November 2025 to September 2026, it mined 506 coins and sold 405 at an average price of $74,021.

Combined, it mined 616 coins and sold 577—93% of its output.

The second round’s average selling price was $6,056, or 8%, higher. It wasn’t forced to sell; it sold into the rally. Today BTC is at $75,845, $4,232 below that average.

Watch the average price in the next monthly report: if it falls below $74,021 and fewer than 40 coins remain, that means cash flow is driving the sales, not market timing.

$BTC

The previous post said $BTC was watching 74,888. It didn't break today—remember that.

New development: Square's Bitcoin payments rollout reached 4 million merchants on November 10.

Breaking down the terms: processing fees are waived through December 31. Counting from today, only 53 days remain; after that, the fee is a flat 1%.

Customers pay in crypto, while merchants receive USD by default. They can automatically convert up to 50% of the day's sales into crypto. The crypto passes through the checkout and back into USD—fiat on both ends.

4 million merchants doesn't mean 4 million buyers: this is a payment channel, not accumulation.

Current price: 75,849; 24-hour low: 75,571. 74,888 is still below.

Watch what happens when that 1% fee kicks in 53 days from now: how many merchants still have the feature enabled will show the real adoption rate.

Trading volume was $430.94 million, while open interest in futures was only $30.78 million—a ratio of 7%.
$IDOL 24-hour gains of 35%, rising from 2 cents to 4.5 cents, and now just above 3 cents.
Put the numbers together: trading volume is 14 times open interest, meaning positions changed hands more than a dozen times in a day.
This structure doesn’t look like position-building. Put simply, the same tokens are being repeatedly passed around; money comes in and then goes out, leaving nothing behind.
The funding rate tells the same story: longs pay 0.06% every 8 hours, three times a day, for a cost close to 0.2%.
The price is already 27% below today’s high, yet longs are still paying. Leveraged positions that chased in at the top haven’t capitulated.
My take: short-term money is driving the volume, not a trend. Watch two numbers: if trading volume drops below $100 million, the hype will fade; if the funding rate turns negative, that’s when the longs have been flushed out.

In the previous post, I said to watch ETH at 2,206. It didn't break—good call.

The current price is 2,246, and the 24-hour low is 2,210. That level is still holding.

The latest figures: of the $6.43 billion stolen from Binance, Elliptic's November 7 update says $3.11 billion hasn't been laundered, spread across 16 chains and more than 20,000 wallets; $2.85 billion has been frozen; and about $124 million has been converted to Bitcoin.

$BTC The current price is 75,938, moving sideways as if nothing happened.

Here's the full picture: more than $3 billion in potential selling pressure is hanging overhead. When it moves depends entirely on whether these wallets wake up.

To be clear: $6.43 billion is an estimate by an analytics firm; the platform has never confirmed that figure.

Watch 74,888: if it breaks, don't make excuses—first check whether this money has started moving on-chain.

1.67 million tokens unlock tomorrow at 8 a.m.

Worth $13.83 million, coming from the foundation’s treasury, equal to 0.41% of the circulating supply.

The numbers look scary: Binance spot trading volume over the past 24 hours was $8.32 million, so the unlock is 1.7 times that.

But you have to look at the bigger picture. Over the past 30 days, 3 million tokens worth $24.9 million were released linearly as staking rewards—100,000 tokens a day. In the same period, 32,500 tokens were burned, for a net increase of 99,000 tokens a day, worth about $820,000—10% of Binance’s daily trading volume.

So this cliff unlock is equivalent to just 17 days of regular emissions.

What I’m watching isn’t that one-off tomorrow, but those 100,000 tokens every day. $AVAX is currently at 8.329. I’m watching 8.24, today’s low. If it breaks, that means the market can’t even absorb this 10%.

It turned over 1.04 times in a day.

$ONE is currently priced at 0.001814, up 58.29% in 24 hours, with $28.33 million in Binance spot trading volume across 447,000 trades (14:50 snapshot).

Let's break down the numbers: based on 15 billion tokens in circulation, the market cap is $27 million. Trading volume is 1.04 times the market cap, with an average trade size of $63.

There has been no announcement. The September 6 proposal to shut down the mainnet and migrate to Ethereum has passed its September 10 snapshot. All that remains is issuing ERC-20 tokens and relisting on exchanges.

It's still 99.5% below the October 2021 high of 0.379.

Put simply, this isn't price discovery—it's just tokens changing hands.

Just watch 0.001985: if it can't get back there within three days, the money buying the dip will have run out.

Block time fell from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and ZEC rose 8% in three days.
$ZEC is now at 1,319, up 3.3%, with 237 million in trading volume—the only one in the market in the green.
That’s not how the math works out—nearly three times faster, but no more money has been printed.
The block reward was cut from 1.5625 coins to 0.52, but daily issuance is still 1,800 coins. With 16.95 million coins in circulation, annualized dilution is 3.9%—the same as before.
What changed is the fee: 60% of each block’s fees are burned outright, and miners keep only 40%. They won’t be replenished through block rewards until February 2031. The 12,224 coins in the old Sprout pool can no longer be withdrawn.
I’m watching two figures: whether daily issuance stays at 1,800 coins, and whether the amount burned tops 1,000 coins within three days. If it doesn’t hold, the gains are just sentiment.

Down 65.6% in a day, from 0.2923 to 0.1001, with $AIN and $235 million in trading volume. Right now, it’s hovering near today’s low of 0.0976.

A crash usually shows three signs: open interest falls, funding rates turn negative, and longs capitulate. None of that happened this time.

Contract open interest rose from 160.5 million tokens to 165.9 million, up 3.3%.

The funding rate is still +0.005%. In plain English, longs are still paying shorts.

The price has been cut by two-thirds, but positions are increasing in the opposite direction. The ones catching the falling knife are leveraged traders, not spot buyers.

I’ve done the math: spot buyers can buy and sit tight. Leveraged buyers have to add margin with every dip—and if they can’t, they get liquidated.

Watch 0.0976. A break below it means liquidation orders from these new longs.

Nasdaq futures climbed back 1% first, but crypto didn’t follow.

$ETH is at 2,244, down 7.35% over 24 hours. SanDisk is up 7% premarket, Micron up 4%.

Let’s lay out the numbers. This morning, the KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker after falling 8.8% intraday; the Nikkei dropped as much as 6.7%, and Nasdaq spot fell 5.52%. One by one, all three markets took a hit—and crypto didn’t escape any of it.

Put simply, the difference is the closing bell. Asian markets had closed, and Europe and the US used futures to bring prices back up first. Crypto trades around the clock, so the same wave of selling hit across three time zones, with no buffer in between.

So part of that 7% drop isn’t new pricing of bad news—it’s crypto taking the baton from all three markets.

I’m watching 2,206. Only if it holds can we talk about joining the recovery; if it breaks, the relay isn’t over yet.

The industry poured $176 million into election campaigns, including $63 million in Ohio alone, but still couldn’t stop him.
In this U.S. midterm election, crypto PAC money was all aimed at regulatory nemesis Sherrod Brown. He won, and Democrats took control of both chambers.
$XRP is trading at 1.19, down 10.3%—the worst performer among the majors. In 24 hours, it plunged from 1.325 to 1.178, with $1.58 billion in trading volume.
Here’s the catch: Democrats want the SEC to regulate altcoins, and Ripple is a major Fairshake donor. I think this battle is a total loss, and the regulatory scales are about to tip directly against XRP.
Meanwhile, Ripple-affiliated Nasdaq-listed XRPN has fallen from its October 12 high of 19.39 to yesterday’s close of 10.05, down 48%. Its S-1 also registered 73.69 million shares for resale—nearly three times the publicly traded Class A shares.
Watch 1.15. If it can’t close back above 1.20, that’s the next level.

Doubled in a day: 6.54 million trades.

$AKE is currently at 0.005069. Over the past 24 hours, it surged from 0.001877 to 0.005382 before pulling back, with a 187% range.

Here are the numbers: $347 million in trading volume. With 22.8 billion tokens in circulation, that puts the market cap at $116 million—three turnovers in a day.

Open interest is just $15.04 million, only 4.3% of trading volume. Spread across 6.54 million trades, that averages $53 per trade.

In plain terms, this isn’t a rally built on leverage; it’s hundreds of thousands of accounts trading back and forth. These traders have no core positions, and they’re leaving faster than they’re piling in.

The funding rate is +0.0414%, settled every 8 hours. Longs are still paying.

I’m watching $15 million: if open interest doesn’t climb past $20 million tomorrow, then it’s just people coming in and leaving the same day.