波段浩源

After getting stuck in a losing position, don’t rush to “break even”

Floating losses are a common part of trading.
What often drags people deeper isn’t the loss itself, but what they do afterward: stubbornly holding on, adding to positions recklessly, and placing trades too frequently—until both their positions and emotions spiral out of control.

Getting out of a losing position doesn’t mean waiting for the market to accommodate you.
First accept that the trade has lost money. Regain your composure and refocus on your rules and signals. When an opportunity that truly fits your strategy appears, use a well-founded new trade to repair your account little by little.

Getting stuck in a losing position is part of trading. To get unstuck, steady your emotions first, then manage your position.
Place fewer emotionally driven trades and stick to trades that follow your rules—that’s how you give yourself a chance to gradually recover your losses.
#比特币反弹至8.3万美元 $ETH $ZEC

10.13 Strategy: BTC and ETH are facing resistance, with the bearish structure remaining intact. Look for further downside opportunities today.

$BTC : The first resistance zone is around 83,700. 84,500 is both the 0.618 retracement level and an on-chain supply cluster, making it a significant resistance area. If a rebound is rejected here, consider a small short position, initially targeting 81,000. If that level breaks, hold for 79,500–80,500. If price reclaims 82,500 on strong volume and moves back above 83,300, the short-term structure may turn neutral; exit and wait on the sidelines.

$ETH : The first resistance zone is around 2,545–2,560. If a rebound is rejected here, consider entering a short position, with a stop-loss above 2,600. Initially target 2,450; if that level breaks, hold for 2,400 or even 2,360. #Evernorth纳斯达克首日收跌1.05%

Macro: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated. Spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw combined net outflows of more than $1.25 billion last week, and market sentiment remains cautious.

The market action in the early hours of October 13 came to a close. Today, BTC and ETH both rebounded before pulling back. The market’s clear struggle under pressure in the resistance zone directly confirmed the bearish setup outlined early on October 13. How did this strategy perform in practice? Let’s look at the price action and the data!#以太坊现货ETF上周净流出5.42亿美元

$BTC

Strategy: First resistance zone near 83300; target 82000, then 80500 if support breaks

Live results: High 83119.7, low 80961.3

Result: Price reached the entry zone as expected, and a move of nearly 2000 points played out successfully

$ETH

Strategy: First resistance zone near 2545/2560; target 2500, then 2435 if support breaks

Live results: High 2526.28, low 2407.50

Result: Price was rejected below the resistance zone, and the 120-point swing was captured as expected

Key rationale
Don’t chase shorts. Wait for a pullback to the resistance zone before reassessing. This allows for a tighter stop-loss and a better risk-to-reward ratio.

The above is for market review purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, so be mindful of position sizing and risk management.

Pullback Short Strategy: Wait for a Rebound to Resistance Before Entering

Core logic: BTC/ETH are currently technically bearish, but shorting immediately can easily lead to a stop-out on a rebound. The best strategy is to wait for the price to pull back to an overhead resistance zone, then enter a short position once resistance is confirmed. This allows for a tighter stop-loss and a better risk/reward ratio.

· $ETH First resistance zone: around 2545/2560 (where the 50-day moving average coincides with the upper Bollinger Band); look to short, targeting around 2500, then 2435 if support breaks
· $BTC First resistance zone: around 83300; look to short, targeting around 82000, then 80500 if support breaks

U.S. September CPI will be released on October 14 at 20:30. Markets may be highly volatile around the release. Ideally, complete the pullback short trade before the data is released, or wait until afterward and trade in the direction indicated by the data. $ZEC

“The biggest mistake in trading is trying to have it both ways.” 🧘‍♂️

Let’s look back at our buddy $BTC : a five-hour position held from afternoon into the evening. Fully invested and trading with the trend, he entered at an average price of 84,238.9 and took profit smoothly at 83,142.2, banking 6,600. Seeing those gains realized in the account and a return of over 200% only reinforces the point: identify the trend and don’t second-guess yourself. #Ledger确认用户设备遭植入未授权硬件

As we anticipated earlier, the overnight market saw BTC face clear resistance in the 84,000–84,500 range (resistance at 83,916 has been confirmed). A weak rebound is the bears’ best opportunity. Even with tempting short-term wicks along the way, and noise from both bulls and bears, I remained firmly bearish. I did regret testing a long position briefly and getting stopped out, but compared with the handsome returns from the larger downtrend short, it was really nothing to mention. $ETH

There are opportunities in the market every day; there’s no need to chase the exact top. The market is still weak, with strong bearish sentiment. Remember: secure your profits and don’t get greedy!
What’s meant for you will come your way. We’ll take every bit of the move we’re entitled to. Stay in rhythm, and let’s keep trading steadily through the evening session!

【Haoyuan BTC 10.12 Trade Review: Precise Levels, Exceptionally Smooth Execution】✨

The early-morning strategy was clear: ETH faced strong resistance overhead at 2570–2600, while BTC had yet to firmly reclaim 84000, making the rebound look bearish.📉$BTC #以太坊现货ETF上周净流出5.42亿美元 $ZEC

The market played out the script perfectly! ETH hit a high of 2578 and met resistance, then moved down 60 points; BTC came under pressure at 84348 and saw a sharp pullback, dropping as much as 1700 points straight to a low of 82601.🎯

The key principle: Don’t chase longs when price is rejected at a key resistance level. Precise entries and exits, and taking advantage of pullbacks in line with the trend—that’s the way to trade steadily.💪

HaoYuan | 2026.10.12 (Monday)
👉 Mainstream ETF net outflows and altcoin capital drain have diverged; U.S. Treasury yields are nearing 5.4%, hitting a 24-year high, while oil prices above $100 continue to sustain inflationary pressure.

🌐 Crypto & Web3
1️⃣ Spot ETFs for BTC/ETH/SOL all recorded net outflows in January: BTC ETFs saw about $386 million in net outflows over the first seven trading days; ETH ETFs had 9 consecutive days of net outflows (about $635 million cumulatively); SOL also turned from net inflow to net outflow.

2️⃣ XRP ETF bucked the trend with 13 consecutive weeks of net inflows: about $11.31 million was added that week, creating a strong contrast with the combined $1.25 billion outflow from BTC/ETH/SOL.

3️⃣ BTC holds above $83,000, while altcoins are broadly losing capital: ETH and SOL have fallen about 7%–10% over the past 7 days, showing that market funds are clearly retreating toward the largest-cap assets for defense.

📈 U.S. Stocks & Traditional Finance
1️⃣ U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday to close higher, ending a record-setting week: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq bounced from their lows, with large-cap tech stocks showing resilience and masking broader downside pressure across the market.

2️⃣ The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is nearing 5.4% (its highest level since 2002): high oil prices and persistent inflation concerns are pushing up global borrowing costs, keeping macro funding costs elevated.

3️⃣ Middle East conflict and tanker attacks continue, with Brent crude staying above $100: the risk premium in energy supply remains elevated, continuously reshaping inflation trades and safe-haven capital flows.

💡 HaoYuan Commentary
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to 5.4%, a 24-year high, directly raising the floor for global risk-free returns; meanwhile, heavy ETF outflows and sharp altcoin declines further reveal capital’s safe-haven choices under a liquidity-tightening cycle.$BTC #以太坊ETF连续9日净流出 $ZEC

With crude oil above $100 and high interest rates squeezing simultaneously, chasing high leverage or weak altcoins is simply a losing move. Holding a defense base anchored in risk-free/low-risk assets and parking funds in stable, steadily yielding channels is the underlying philosophy for navigating an era of surging interest rates.

This Week’s Macro and Technical Outlook: CPI to Test the Rate-Cut Narrative as the Broader Market Faces a Directional Crossroads

The week’s key macro event is undoubtedly the U.S. September CPI report due Wednesday (see chart). Expectations point to a rebound in the unadjusted annual rate to 3.7%, up from 3.4% previously. A potential pickup in inflation will directly test the Fed’s stance on pausing rate hikes. Warsh’s remarks at the IMF are also worth watching closely. $BTC #以太坊突破2500USDT $ZEC

Turning to the charts, the weekly close was highly dramatic: a range that had initially broken down was forcefully pulled back, reflecting an exceptionally intense battle between bulls and bears.
The overall structure remains range-bound, with major resistance near 87,200 and support near 80,300.
The key level to watch is 84,300, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Short-term support lies near 82,800.

Trading strategy: Until price breaks decisively above 84,300 and holds there, the overall approach remains to treat rallies as facing resistance. If the market breaks above this level strongly and successfully retests it as support, the trend may reverse, and the strategy should be adjusted promptly. Volatility may be high around the data release, so manage position sizes carefully.

10.12 Haoyuan Strategy
Technical Analysis: Strong Moving-Average Resistance
ETH faces a confluence of resistance around 2570–2600, where the 4-hour EMA50 and daily EMA20 are clustered. Previous bullish attempts to break through have repeatedly failed, leaving many traders trapped in losing positions. This is a classic case of “weak consolidation below resistance”—any rebound just hands more ammunition to the bears. $BTC #以太坊突破2500USDT $SOL

BTC’s Weakness Weighs on the Market
BTC remains firmly capped below resistance at 83916. As the market leader, it has yet to establish itself above the key 84000 level. With no engine for an upward move, it will be difficult for ETH to strengthen on its own.
For BTC, consider shorting in the 84000–84500 range, with targets at 82400–82900.
For ETH, consider shorting in the 2565–2585 range, targeting 2375–2515.

After trading for a while, you come to understand that the market never moves in a straight line. Uptrends, downtrends, sideways movement, and false breakouts take turns, and almost every trader will find themselves temporarily stuck in a position. What usually does serious damage to an account isn’t getting stuck once, but losing control of how you handle it: some keep telling themselves to wait a little longer, only to sink deeper; others panic and cut their losses at the very bottom, throwing their entire plan off track.

Profit and loss are only the surface. Whether you can keep trading over the long term depends on having rules and risk controls. If you react emotionally to every market move, it’s easy to make poor decisions. Clearly writing down a few possible scenarios and how you’ll respond beforehand is far more reliable than improvising in the moment. $BTC $ETH $ZEC

In a phase like this, with repeated swings between bullish and bearish conditions and frequent shakeouts, don’t rush to add to a losing position to lower your average cost. First, assess the broader direction: is this a normal pullback within a trend, or has the structure already reversed? Don’t let wishful thinking take the place of objective signals. Keep your position size under control and leave enough available capital; a heavily leveraged position puts you at a disadvantage. If the defensive level is breached, follow your plan. Don’t let a small loss grow into a large one that leaves you with no options.

There will always be another opportunity in the market, but once your capital is lost, it can be difficult to recover quickly. Keep your emotions in check, wait for the structure to become clearer or for a rebound window to appear, then manage your position according to your rules. A little less wishful thinking and a little more discipline may be what it takes to stay in the market for the long run.

The longer you trade, the more you realize that the market never moves in a straight line. Uptrends, downtrends, sideways moves, and false breakouts take turns. Almost every trader gets caught in a losing position at some point. What usually does lasting damage to an account isn’t getting caught once, but losing control of how you handle it: some keep thinking they should wait a little longer, only to sink deeper into losses; others panic and sell at the bottom, throwing their entire plan into disarray.

Profit and loss are only the surface. Whether you can trade for the long term depends on having rules and managing risk. If you react emotionally to every market fluctuation, it’s easy to make poor decisions. Writing down possible scenarios and how you’ll respond in advance is far more reliable than improvising in the moment. $BTC $ETH $ZEC

During periods like this, when bulls and bears keep switching places and shakeouts are frequent, don’t rush to add to a losing position just to lower your average cost. First, assess the broader trend: is this a normal pullback within a trend, or has the market structure reversed? Don’t let wishful thinking override objective signals. Manage your position size, too, and keep enough funds available. A heavily leveraged position can leave you with very few options. If your defense level is breached, follow your plan. Don’t let a small loss grow into a much larger one that you can no longer manage.

There will always be another opportunity in the market, but once your capital is gone, it’s hard to recover quickly. Stay calm and wait for the market structure to become clearer or for a rebound opportunity to appear, then manage your position according to your rules. Less wishful thinking and more discipline may be what it takes to stay in the market for the long run.

It’s Saturday, and the U.S. stock market is closed, so there’s less external news to move the market. Bitcoin and Ethereum will probably trade sideways for the most part. $BTC $ETH $ETC

With movement this weak, I’m not expecting any big moves today. I’ll keep my positions small and make a few short-term trades.

It’s the weekend, after all—once I’ve made enough for groceries, I’ll call it a day. The main thing is to get some proper rest.

Back from the National Day holiday, and straight into high gear!

On the morning of October 8, Hao Yuan flagged a short opportunity near the highs, and the market pulled back as expected;
In the early hours of October 9, $BTC flagged a long opportunity near 81,000, while $ETH followed up on the rebound near 2,415;
On the evening of October 9, we reversed course and went short again near 83,400, and the market dropped sharply once more. $ZEC

Over the past few days, the shifts between long and short positions have been seamless, with timing, entry levels, and direction all spot on. Follow Hao Yuan’s strategy: act decisively when it’s time to enter, and don’t get greedy when it’s time to take profits.

Back from the National Day holiday, and straight into high gear!

Early on October 8, Haoyuan advised shorting near the highs, and the market pulled back as expected;
In the early hours of October 9, $BTC advised going long near 81000, while $ETH joined the rebound near 2415;
On the evening of October 9, we reversed course and shorted again near 83400, and the market took another sharp drop. $ZEC

The shifts between long and short positions have been seamless over the past few days, with timing, entry points, and direction all spot-on. Follow Haoyuan’s approach: act decisively when it’s time to enter, and don’t get greedy when it’s time to take profits.

10.9 Evening Strategy: Perfectly Executed! Nailed Every Short!

At 5:17 p.m., I, Haoran, flagged an evening short. Looking back, we timed it perfectly! While the market was still hesitating, we had already spotted the bearish structure. $BTC $ETH $ZEC

【Trade Review】
ETH: A smooth win. I, Haoran, called for a short around 2515–2525. The market fell as expected, dropping from a high of 2519.60 to 2472.81—locking in nearly 45 points of profit!
BTC: A sharp pullback. I, Haoran, called for a short around 82800–83400. After hitting a high of 83499.9, the price came under pressure and moved lower, reaching a low of 82440.0—capturing nearly 1,000 points of movement!

🚀 Countertrend strategy validated—the long position closed successfully!

At 00:52 on October 9, a long position was opened at 81,019.4, with 8.8626 BTC held. After 12 hours of volatility, the position was closed around 82,327.0 at 12:41 on October 9.

Trader:
🔥 Average entry price: 81,019.4
🔥 Average exit price: 82,327.0
🔥 Return: +322.80%
🔥 Realized P&L: 11,589.油$BTC $ETH $ZEC

In a volatile market, don’t chase rallies or sell into dips. Stick to your stop-loss and follow the rhythm to seize opportunities in market swings. There’s no shortage of opportunities in crypto—the key is finding the rhythm to guide you into a trade and get you out safely. Let’s keep watching the charts together for the next trade!

10/8: From strategy to execution—yesterday, every short trade was in the green! Haoyuan led fellow traders $ETH and $BTC to take home around 23,000 USDT in total $ZEC

【ETH Live Trading Results】
Anticipating selling pressure, we opened short positions at 9 yesterday.
Across two trades, returns exceeded 270%+, with a maximum position of over 130 ETH—we captured the entire downward swing! Around 9,300 USDT in total.

【BTC Live Trading Results】
We followed suit with BTC, opening positions above 83,000.
Across two trades, returns held steady in the 230%–240% range, for around 13,700 USDT in total.

Turning insight into action—and executing with precision.
Whether it’s a fluctuation of several hundredfold or a drop of several thousand points, Haoyuan can help you ride the trend.
Yesterday’s profits have already landed, and today’s market is gathering momentum.
Stay in sync—we’re back at it tonight!

On the hourly timeframe, this remains a low-volume rebound within a downtrend. The moving averages are bearishly aligned, and MACD momentum is bearish. ETF funds continue to flow out, and risk appetite is contracting. The rebound is limited, and prices are likely to pull back again after stalling.

BTC: Consider shorting around 82,800–83,400, targeting 81,500–81,000, with a stop-loss above 83,900. If price holds above 84,000 on increased volume, close the short and wait on the sidelines. $BTC $ETH $ZEC

ETH: Consider shorting around 2,515–2,525, targeting 2,460–2,440, with a stop-loss above 2,560. If it breaks below 2,400, look for 2,350–2,300.

These are my personal views and do not constitute investment advice. Keep positions small and use stop-losses. A rebound is not a reversal—don’t try to catch a falling knife. Until BTC regains and holds above 83,000, treat any rebound as a corrective move, not a reversal.

🔥 Profiting from both longs and shorts! Riding the trend yesterday, going against it today—we nailed the timing! $BTC $ETH $ZEC

【Yesterday’s Review: Bearish Trend】
On October 8, based on expected selling pressure and weakening technical indicators, Haoyuan called for a trend-following short position in advance.
The market played out as expected: BTC fell 2,000 points and ETH dropped 80 points, confirming the view that “prices would remain under pressure after a corrective rebound.”

【Today’s Trade: Oversold Rebound】
In the early hours of October 9, ETH showed signs of being oversold after a sharp drop. Haoyuan acted decisively, recommending long positions in the 2415–2425 range.
The market took off from 2405, surging 90 points to 2499!

No luck involved—just logic. From trend-following shorts yesterday to countertrend longs in the early hours today, Haoyuan profited from both directions.
Keep a close eye on the intraday strategy. We’re at it again today.