G a a h

418 Posts

G a a h

Markets Analyses on-chain Data Trading, AI, Macro Insights

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BTC Holder

Occasional Trader

7.7 Years

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2.2K+ Followers

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G a a h

IBCI Daily remains at 42.86 points

#bitcoin price $85k🔻🔺

#BTC #Onchain #CYCLE $BTC

BTC-0.19%

G a a h

#bitcoin Price Momentum is losing strength🔻 as the price encounters resistance in the short term — which could set conditions for deeper pullbacks.

The indicator shows a bearish divergence 👀

#BTC #technicalanalyst #bearish #signal $BTC

BTC-0.19%

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Strategy purchased 334 #BTC at an average cost of $85,839 totaling $28.7 million

The company now holds 848,000 BTC in its holdings at a current cost basis🟡 $76k with an unrealized gain🟩$8,43 b

92,894 shares of MSTR were sold totaling $15.7 million — 100% of this amount was allocated to increasing exposure to #bitcoin

It used $13 million from the USD Cash to complete purchase BTC and $154.1 million to repurchase STRC.
The company used $142.5 million from the USD Reserve to pay preferred dividends and interest on debt.

#strategy #Saylor #Onchain $BTC

BTC-0.19%

MSTRB+0.42%

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IBCI Weekly remains at 42.86 points — close to neutral range

#bitcoin #CYCLE #Onchain #BTC $BTC

BTC-0.19%

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Coinbase Premium Z-Score #bitcoin has remained in positive territory since August 26, indicating that institutional appetite remains active.

However, volume is declining after peaking — which suggests caution in the short term as these investors tend to take profits, increasing the likelihood of triggering forced liquidations and creating opportunities for new entries into #BTC

#technicalanalyst #coinbase #signal $BTC

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Coinbase Premium Z-Score hits new 2026 high🔥 signaling a return of institutional appetite for #bitcoin

About a month ago, we highlighted an active bullish divergence in this indicator, which influenced the relief in short-term selling pressure from institutional investors on #BTC acting in that region.

#technicalanalyst #coinbase #buy $BTC

BTC-0.19%

G a a h

IBCI Daily remains at 42.86 points

#bitcoin price $85k 🔻🔺

#BTC #Onchain #CYCLE $BTC

BTC-0.19%

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Puell Multiple hits 11-month high 🔥

Since November 2025, the Puell Multiple MA7d has been in Discount zone🟢 and has remained below 1.00 for about 10 months👀

Historically, whenever this indicator has traded below 1.00 (discount zone), it has signaled periods of #bitcoin accumulation associated with market bottoms.

As the Puell Multiple breaks above 1.00 — exiting the accumulation zone — a reversal is expected to be underway, with an initial target of 2.00🟨 — #BTC price has room to continue rising in an attempt to break through key resistance levels.

#Onchain #CYCLE #bullish $BTC

BTC-0.19%

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IBCI Daily remains at 42.86 points

#bitcoin price $84k 🔻🔺

#BTC #Onchain #CYCLE $BTC #BTC

BTC-0.19%

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Exchange CDD Pressure Index #bitcoin remains below the Neutral Zone (0.00) — which is positive for a price reversal

We emphasized in our last analysis in August 2026, that as this indicator remains below 0, it paves the way for recovery to evolve into reversal trend — which is exactly what we’re seeing now.

We continue to monitor this indicator because when new peaks above neutral zone occur, the risk of a correction in #BTC will increase exponentially.

#Onchain #exchange #inflows $BTC

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Long-Term Holders are losing momentum in potential selling volume to exchanges since the June 2026 low

After three descending tops, we caution that this signal opens the door for a #bitcoin recovery 🤝

Now, this recovery movement could evolve into an actual reversal as long as the Exchange CDD Pressure Index remains below the Neutral Zone — we will continue to monitor.

#BTC #Onchain #Bull #technicalanalyst $BTC

BTC-0.19%

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#bitcoin moving towards correlation neutrality with #GOLD

It has now been 12 months since the BTC/Gold Ratio Z-Score indicator entered negative territory, indicating that BTC is oversold relative to Gold, favoring risk-to-return in BTC positions.

In our last analysis in August 2026, we reinforced the idea of #BTC greater potential for appreciation relative to Gold — this has not changed, the market is moving in opposite direction it has over the past year.

#Macro #BitcoinFundingRateTriplesTo10% $BTC

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#bitcoin still in Oversold territory relative to gold

This correlation has been weakening since February/2026, moving closer to the equilibrium point between two assets.

#BTC and Gold tend to move in sync most of time, though sometimes Bitcoin outperforms Gold or vice versa, as in 2025 when gold rises 38% while BTC drops -50%.

Anyone who has been trading #GOLD for #BTC recently is technically making a good deal in the medium term, as Bitcoin is down 50% from its ATH and Gold is down 27%, with BTC having greater upside potential over the next few years compared to Gold up potential.

#Macro

BTC-0.19%

XAU+0.55%

G a a h

IBCI Monthly reaches 42.86 points approaching neutral range (50—yellow line) — the highest level since December 2025

The indicator has moved away from the accumulation zone, where it had remained for about 10 months — it is expected to reach 50+ points to confirm the reversal of #bitcoin bear market.

#BTC #Onchain #CYCLE #technicalanalyst $BTC

BTC-0.19%

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Bullish

IBCI Momentum hits -14.849 🔺 — It’s the lowest bar in 7 months

Last month, the low was not retested, which indicated a reversal signal.
In our last analysis, we emphasized that the next bar would confirm this signal if slowdown continued — and that is exactly what has just happened👀

The trend is for the slowdown to continue in coming months, while #bitcoin price continues to extend uptrend formed since the last low, breaking through key resistance levels.

#BTC #Onchain #CYCLE #bullish $BTC

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The new month bar IBCI Momentum #bitcoin does not renew the low, indicating an active reversal signal

To confirm this signal, the next bar (October) must continue to decelerate

Although the indicator has not reached historical range (-25 | -30), a pattern can be observed:
The formation of historical lows is characterized by a slight upward slope — this indicates that #BTC bear markets are becoming milder over the course of cycles

#Onchain #CYCLE #technicalanalyst $BTC

BTC-0.19%

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#bitcoin Fear & Greed Index reached 78 — Extreme Greed — Highest level in 13 months

This move is expected as #BTC price is staging a reversal rally — however, with sentiment remaining in greed territory, the risk of triggering pullbacks that liquidate leveraged positions increases.

#technicalanalyst #sentiment #greed $BTC

BTC-0.19%

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IBCI Daily remains at 42.86 points

#bitcoin price $84k 🔻🔺

#BTC #Onchain #CYCLE $BTC

BTC-0.19%

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#bitcoin was trading at ~$65k when we emphasized in last analysis just how cheap it was relative to the U.S. stock market.

The indicator has been in negative territory for at least 12 months — now BTC/S&P 500 Sharpe Differential is approaching 0 (neutral zone).

Don’t follow the herd — always focus on data.
In recent months, we’ve published various macroeconomic data pointing to the divergence between cheap #BTC and an expensive S&P 500, in terms relative valuations of both markets.

#SPX #technicalanalyst #Macro $BTC

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Most investors lose money because buy assets at the top and sell at bottom.

Bitcoin or S&P 500 — Which asset should you buy now?
Investors are euphoric about the SPX and fearful of #BTC

Risk-adjusted #SPX is at historic lows relative to #bitcoin

Bitcoin is extremely cheap compared to the U.S. market.
For good future returns, the upside potential must be equivalent to risk.

Buying the S&P 500 right now carries higher risk with lower potential returns.
Buying Bitcoin right now carries lower risk with higher potential returns.

#Macro #technicalanalyst $BTC

BTC-0.19%

SPX-7.87%

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#bitcoin is above the MVRV Fair Value — currently at ~$79k

This average was breached on October 10, 2025 — and has remained below it ever since, throughout the entire bear market.

If BTC breaks above this indicator and tests this region as support, it confirms reversal of bear market — the current scenario is similar to historical patterns.

When a bear market begins (price below MVRV fair value), this average tends not to be reached during the trend, historically.
Once #BTC price breaks above this line, it’s game over for the bears — see the chart.

#Onchain #technicalanalyst #Bull $BTC

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MVRV Fair Price 🔵 #bitcoin at ~$87k

This band confirms a trend reversal when the price crosses below/above it 🔻🔺

If #BTC price exceeds that level, the bear market is reversed.

#Onchain #CYCLE #MVRV $BTC

BTC-0.19%

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#bitcoin Volatility expanded and price broke a bearish structure

#BTC #volatility #technicalanalyst #Bull $BTC

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Volatility is just beginning 🔥 #bitcoin

#BTC #technicalanalyst #volatility $BTC #Bull

BTC-0.19%

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IBCI Daily remains at 42.86 points

#bitcoin price $84k 🔻🔺

#BTC #Onchain #CYCLE $BTC

BTC-0.19%

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Spot #bitcoin ETF accumulation in 2026 is close to flipping into positive territory after a 6-month streak of distribution.

Although the first two years of ETFs were extremely positive, last year we began to see a decline in demand for #BTC from these investors.

With the average cost basis of ETFs near $75k — while price BTC remained below that level for about 6 months — these investors were forced to capitulate thereby contributing to the low demand.

Most investors view active spot ETF traders as examples of how to buy and sell wisely, but in reality, it doesn’t always work that way. Many of these traders acted on FOMO/FUD, getting stuck with expensive positions and forced to sell at lower prices contributing to the high probability of historic bottom.

#Onchain #etf #blackRock $BTC

BTC-0.19%

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#bitcoin On-Chain Profit Fear & Greed Index is approaching the Extreme Greed zone ⚠️

The last time this indicator was at this level — 11 months ago — #BTC price hit all-time high $126k

However, over past year, the indicator remained for months within Extreme Fear region signaling bottoming pattern with historical accuracy, as this index uses various on-chain components — we discussed this in our last analysis in August 2026.

It is expected that the indicator — once it exits the accumulation zone — will move toward the distribution zone.
We use neutral zone (50 points) to determine reversal confirmation signal, the current situation is fitting.

New price pullbacks are expected during this period and as investors become more greedy, the risk decline increases.

#Onchain #CYCLE #greed $BTC

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Bullish

#bitcoin On-Chain Profit Fear & Greed Index is currently in Extreme Fear 🟢 range

This index is a composite of several on-chain metrics in Fear & Greed Index format, designed to map investor sentiment based on this data.

We use the SOPR, NUPL, and MVRV components, aligning these indicators with their respective ranges and applying a 0–100 oscillator with Extreme Greed🔴 and Extreme Fear🟢 zones.

The combination of on-chain metrics provides greater accuracy in creating strategies based on DCA-buy or DCA-sell applications for #BTC throughout market cycles.

Although MVRV alone does not reach the historical peak range, acting as a component within this indicator, it has helped the metric accurately signal periods of Extreme Greed 🔴 that coincide with market tops, for example.

#Onchain #MVRV #technicalanalyst $BTC

BTC-0.19%

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