懂币猫

Return to the top of the annual rankings

#BTC

I’ve been saying all along that September’s pullback was an opportunity.
But October’s pullback is even more precious.

Bitcoin has been remarkably resilient, falling just 2% yesterday. I’m still fully invested, but I’d still like to see more choppy price action and save the chance for a fifth double until later this month, before breaking out.

Don’t let fear of a 5% stop-loss make you miss a potential 500% rally down the road. Missing out is far more devastating than taking a loss.

#BTC

Bitcoin fluctuated 2 points, and 400 million was liquidated. It looks like there are too many gambling addicts, all going all in with 50x leverage and 100x leverage.

Stay patient and cherish every pullback opportunity.
Once the longs are wiped out, we’ll accumulate shorts again, and the next wave of upward行情 won’t be far off.

#BTC #纳指 #美股

I've been getting pop-up notifications these past two days: the Nasdaq has hit a record high, the S&P has hit a record high—U.S. stocks hit new highs every year.

Bitcoin won't be far behind.

#BTC
In her early years, an old lady bought three color TVs in a rush and hid them under the bed

She was afraid that later, her son wouldn’t be able to afford them when he got married

Back then, color TVs kept rising in price

The logic behind it all is the same

See the trend clearly: Bitcoin has only 21 million coins. Against fiat currency that faces inflation, the long-term trajectory can only be upward. What hurts is that in the next bear market, we most likely won’t be able to see Bitcoin again below 100,000.

#BTC

The market will always move in the direction of least resistance

You should know this is a bull market

#BTC #CPI

New CPI data will be released this Friday
Latest interest rate: 4.0
Latest unemployment rate: 4.10
Latest CPI: 3.4

Many people may not know that when the previous Bitcoin bull market began
At that time, the interest rate was: 4.0
At that time, the unemployment rate was: 3.6
At that time, the CPI was: 7.1

The 2023 Bitcoin bull market rose entirely while rate hikes were happening. When the bull market was halfway through, the interest rate had climbed as high as 5.5; by the end of the bull market, the interest rate was still at 4.5. The previous round of CPI data also wasn’t much lower than it is now.

Can you see it? In trading, use less subjective judgment and rely more on data to support your view. Pay more attention to the actual strength shown in the candlestick charts. If anyone still says that rate hikes alone mean there can’t be a bull market, you can directly ask them whether the previous U.S. stock and Bitcoin bull markets were also occurring during a rate-hike cycle?

#zec

For the first time, a top indication appeared. The upward channel at the top has broken down. As for the ZEC long position that was opened in sync with Bitcoin from August, it has been closed for the most part. Continue to operate according to the strategy

#BTC #ETH #SOL #BNB

Today’s Live Recap

Bitcoin’s weekly chart has already broken above the previous high of 82,000, confirming a reversal at the weekly level. The weekly trend is now very clear and tells us that the bear market has ended. Pullbacks are entry opportunities.

The exchange-rate trends of major mainstream coins are stronger than Bitcoin—for example SOL, ETH, BNB, etc. For long positions, pay attention to currency/rate switching, and try to capture more of the gains.

1. Trading cannot rely on feelings—feelings are unreliable. We need logic.
2. Set the direction using the long cycle; decide the entry using the short cycle.
3. In a bear market, find ways to short at higher levels; in a bull market, find ways to go long at lower levels.
4. Divergence is not a sufficient and necessary condition for a drop.
5. Divergence can be resolved by sideways consolidation, or by stronger upward movement.
6. Don’t guess how the next few candlesticks will play out.
7. When the market has already shown you what it looks like, we should respect what it’s doing.
8. In trading, there is no precision—only a blurry correctness.
9. No one can tell you with 100% certainty that 82,000 will definitely bounce, or that 74,000 will definitely break down to the bottom.
10. Once the market is confirmed, we actually end up not being able to make money.
11. If you can’t hold onto normal swings of two or three points, or three or four points, then the leverage is too high.
12. You missed the spot move—so now slowly build your position.
13. The cycle isn’t invalid, but it will never replicate 100%.
14. When expectations are overly consistent, the market often won’t follow what everyone wants.
15. The only thing you should stubbornly hold onto is your own profit model.
16. As long as you’re alive, there will always be a wave of market action we can catch. You must not

#BTC

Bitcoin’s every adjustment now is only to go higher

Trends have continuity. Even a heavily loaded truck—everyone knows that even if you stomp the brakes, stopping immediately is impossible. Trends work the same way: the stronger the trend, the harder it is to halt in the short term.

The whole market is waiting for a Bitcoin pullback, so it becomes even less likely to pull back. Only when you finally can’t resist and rush in to buy is when the pullback begins. Trading is sometimes just that mysterious—candlesticks are the masters of manipulating psychology.

Every round of the early bull breakout-and-rally pattern looks similar. Bitcoin has already broken through the prior high at the bottom on a weekly level. It’s clear that it has reversed the downtrend. Expecting a new low is not very likely. But thinking like that makes the risk-reward ratio rather low. Trading profits come from stacking up many times of “not bad” risk-reward.

Treat this as an upward continuation. Actively look for pullback entry points to go long. October and November are the traditional strong months for crypto; we can wait until December to consider going short.

Let go of a bearish mindset and anchor to a bull market mindset

All the mindset problems we encounter in our trading actually come from fear of the unknown. Because the next candlestick is uncertain, anything is possible—it has endless variations.

We don’t know what the future market is going to face, so we become greedy, fearful, tense, excited, at a loss, and we start trading recklessly, and so on...

Howard Philipp has a famous quote:
The oldest and strongest emotion in human beings is fear.
The oldest and strongest fear in human beings is fear of the unknown.

Always remind yourself to learn how to face fear, and encourage one another.

It's 100 million now

Thanks, bull market

#BTC #ETH

Today’s Livestream Summary:

The weekly-level picture is very clear: this is a bull market. Wait for 40k and 50k Bitcoin—otherwise you can only miss the bull market.
We entered with the core position at 64k. Let’s cherish it and don’t close it easily. It may already be the lowest-position allocation of this bull cycle.

1. In a bull market, resistance levels are meant to be broken through—not places to enter short.
2. Drop bearish thinking and switch to bullish thinking.
3. Treasure these bottom-position coins.
4. What you get at the bottom gives you a tremendous psychological advantage.
5. Moving sideways instead of dropping indicates extreme strength—in essence, it’s a continuation of the uptrend.
6. The two rounds of rapid surges mean the capital couldn’t wait and started early to move out of the cost-basis zone.
7. When the trend arrives, don’t rush to top-pick.
8. When a resistance level is reached, even if I know it might dip, I won’t go against the trend to short.
9. The real risk isn’t the pullback—it’s that you won’t have any position left for what comes after.
10. When the bull market comes, if you buy the pullback during the bull market—what are you afraid of?

20% trading-fee rebate invitation code: CATBTC88

#BTC #ETH

Bitcoin by the end of the year 100,000
Ethereum by the end of the year 4,000

There is an opportunity to give it a try

This year’s fourth doubling opportunity—did you cherish it?