cyberman

To be honest, my trading log for the past 7 days looks pretty depressing 💀: 11 trades closed, 6 losses and 5 wins, for a win rate of just 45.5%. A mistake is a mistake—no excuses.

Looking closely at the trades that went wrong, my biggest mistake was stubbornly trading against the trend. My NEAR short at 3.817 and XRP short at 1.2568 hit stop-loss because I jumped in front of a truck before buying pressure had run out. And the LONG $SOL @ 96.32 with HOT plunged straight through the 91 invalidation level incredibly quickly because I misread the volume spike.

The winning trades, like BTC short at 77k, LITEB, and INIT, only helped salvage the risk-reward thanks to capital management—nothing to brag about 😅. Next week, I’ll tighten up my discipline and absolutely won’t try to catch falling knives before selling pressure has run its course.

How’s your win rate been lately, everyone? What’s the most painful loss you’ve taken? Drop a comment and let’s talk! ✍️

#Write2Earn #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketUpdate
(This post is for sharing purposes only and is not investment advice)

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🌐 EN: Full transparency: 11 calls resolved this past week with 5 Wins and 6 Losses (45.5% win rate).

URGENT WARNING! $ETH just saw a sharp -3.01% candle in 15 minutes, dropping straight to $2,283.27! The 15m candle volume was 7.4x the average, pushing the 15M RSI down to an extremely oversold level of 8.4. This is clearly a widespread long liquidation sweep, as derivatives data shows 69% Long and OI down 2.2% after the crash.

The critically important support level to watch closely right now is $2,277.53 (support on both the 15M and 1H timeframes). If ETH can't hold this level, selling pressure could intensify and push the price even lower. The nearest resistance levels are $2,423.76 (15M) and $2,444.75 (1H).

Traders are strongly warned not to FOMO into catching a falling knife before a candle has firmly closed above these levels on higher timeframes. Don't try to trade against the trend in these extremely volatile conditions.

Will $ETH bounce back from $2,277.53, or will it continue searching for a new low? What do you think?
$ETH #EmergencyAlert #CryptoAlert NFA/DYOR

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Nãy giờ ngó qua Binance Futures, thấy BNB có pha khá dị. 71.5% tài khoản retail đang Long, nhưng top trader chỉ 52.3%. Chênh lệch gần 20% là có biến rồi đây. 🤓 Khi đám đông dồn Long một phía như vậy, đặc biệt ở BNB với funding rate cao chót vót +0.0210%/8h, thì phí gồng là vấn đề lớn. Cứ tưởng xanh lét, ai dè ôm cục nợ phí. Cá mập thì có vẻ thận trọng hơn nhiều. So với $DOGE hay SOL khi cả retail lẫn top trader đều Long rất sát nhau (>72%), thì BNB đang kể một câu chuyện khác. Vùng 70%+ tài khoản Long luôn là khu vực tiềm ẩn stop-loss lớn, dễ bị quét thanh khoản. Đừng nghĩ cứ đông là đúng nhé.

Tôi đang nghĩ: liệu đây là lúc phe Short "bú đẫm" hay cá mập đang chờ gom hàng giá thấp hơn? OI của BNB cũng đang giảm -2.3%, cho thấy dòng tiền đang rút ra, không phải tiền mới vào. Mức giảm OI khi giá không tăng mạnh có thể là dấu hiệu trend yếu đi. Khá là red flag đấy. 😐

Anh em đang Long BNB từ vùng nào, có cảm thấy thanh khoản hơi mỏng không? Để lại nhận định đi. 👀

Ai vừa hỏi mua $SNXXB chưa, xem cái nến này rồi tính lại nhé 🫠. Nhìn cái chart 1H lẫn 1D đều đỏ lòm, giá cứ cắm mặt xuống, tạo đỉnh thấp hơn đáy thấp hơn trông như cái cầu trượt nước không phanh vậy 📉. Áp lực bán -22.15% trong 24h, vol hơn 6 triệu USDT bay vèo vèo, thực sự là cảnh tượng đau lòng cho anh em cầm hàng. RSI khung ngày đã quá bán sâu tận 28.46 rồi đó, nhưng trong downtrend mạnh thì nó cứ lì lợm ở dưới vậy mãi, chẳng khác nào lời nguyền. Giá $5.06 hiện tại đang lở lửng gần đáy nhiều năm, phía dưới chẳng còn mấy hỗ trợ cứng đâu mà bám víu.

Đã vậy, mấy ngày nay còn dính phốt Synthetix (SNX) bị các sàn Hàn Quốc xem xét hủy niêm yết, dù trước đó mới gỡ gạc lại được vụ hack thì tâm lý thị trường lại ăn nguyên cú knock-out 💀. Bảo sao nó cứ tuột dốc không phanh.

Thật sự, trong tình cảnh này, tui vẫn nghiêng về phe short hơn anh em ạ. Tui đang canh mốc $5.38 - $5.42 để vào lệnh. Mục tiêu kỳ vọng là về $4.90 rồi sâu hơn là $4.50.

Thị trường đang xanh nhẹ với BTC tăng 2.74% trong 24h, nhìn tưởng ngon lành nhưng đừng vội FOMO. Anh em trader kỳ cựu sẽ hiểu, quan trọng là nhìn vào sức mạnh tương đối chứ không phải mỗi con số % tăng giảm. 😏 Khi cả sàn một màu mà có thằng một màu khác biệt, đó mới đáng nói.

Minh chứng rõ nhất là BEAMX, tăng tới +18.27%, mạnh hơn BTC tận 15.53 điểm phần trăm. Hay 1000CAT cũng rất ấn tượng với +13.00%, vượt BTC 10.26 điểm. Mấy con này rõ ràng là 'Bid despite tape', có dòng tiền riêng chứ không phải ăn may nhờ thị trường kéo. Đây chính là nhóm đáng để mắt khi thị trường có nhịp điều chỉnh.

Ngược lại, xem đám $SNXXB hay SOXLB kìa. SNXXB bay tận -21.29%, yếu hơn BTC đến 24.03 điểm phần trăm. SOXLB cũng không khá hơn, rớt -19.02%. TRUMP cũng vậy, giảm -15.89%. Khi BTC đang kéo mà chúng nó vẫn 'Left behind' thì đúng là dấu hiệu đáng lo, yếu hơn thị trường ngay cả trong ngày xanh. Rõ ràng là chẳng có lực đỡ nào, khả năng 'gãy cấu trúc' rất cao.

Khoan đã, $SOL vừa làm cái gì trên chart vậy? 👀 Nhìn cái cách nó giật nến 4H gần đây là đủ hiểu dân tình đang xôn xao rồi. Giá $96.32, MA7 $95.151 đã cắt lên MA25 $93.97 ngon lành, cho thấy xu hướng ngắn hạn đang rất tích cực. Cái kháng cự gần nhất là MA99 $99.696 đang đợi nó xử lý. RSI 4H cũng đang phục hồi mạnh mẽ từ vùng thấp, động lượng tăng dần đều chứ không phải kiểu FOMO bùng nổ rồi xịt.

Trong khi đám đông còn đang FUD vì cái vụ ETF rút ròng $71.47 triệu tuần trước hay những đợt điều chỉnh liên tục, thì tay to họ lại nhặt hàng không trượt phát nào. Nhìn qua khung 1W thì rõ ràng $SOL đang neo rất vững trên MA25 $90.040, đây là vùng hỗ trợ cực kỳ quan trọng sau một đợt bán tháo. Khối lượng giao dịch của $SOL cũng thuộc top Binance với $264,354,735 USDT trong 24h qua, tăng 5.74%, cho thấy dòng tiền đang đổ vào khá ổn.

Chưa kể, hàng loạt tin tức hỗ trợ đang đến.

Morning of 05/11: BTC just touched $80,568.15, up 4.67% overnight. It seems long-position holders are warming up again after the surge from the $75,600 area, accompanied by $380 million in short liquidations. Ethereum was no less impressive, jumping 7.05% to $2,424.36.

Market breadth was fairly positive, with 79% of the top 100 coins trading in the green, indicating that capital is being distributed more evenly. LSK led the gains, up 16.54%, while INIT (+14.81%) continued to soar. In contrast, $TRUMP plunged 19.46%, ranking among the biggest laggards.

The macro backdrop was fairly favorable, as uncertainty around the U.S. midterm elections eased, contributing to the rally in risk assets. However, Bitcoin ETF data showed three consecutive days of outflows from 30/10 to 03/11, totaling $1.16 billion, although outflows on 03/11 had fallen to $115.6 million. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs saw seven consecutive days of outflows, totaling $656.4 million, with many investors sitting on losses at an average price near $3,200. The $6.34 billion Binance hack at the end of October is still weighing on market sentiment.

Many newbie traders get confused because they don’t know which move is the main trend and which is just a pullback. 🧑‍🏫 Here’s a tip: use MA99 as the boundary for the broader trend. Think of MA99 as a main highway. 💡 If the price is above MA99, the trend is up, and every dip is a buying opportunity. Conversely, if the price is below MA99, a rally is just a bounce—not a strong trend yet.

👀 Take a look at $ZEC right now: the price is $1,318.24, above MA99 ($1,236.02)! MA7 ($1,259.79) and MA25 ($1,230.44) are also above MA99, and RSI is a healthy 63.0. So the recent dips were opportunities to watch for entry levels, not something to be afraid of.

✍️ Put it into practice: before trading, check whether the price is above or below MA99 to determine the trend. 🤝 Have you got any experience with MA99? Share it so everyone can learn!

#Write2Earn #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoAnalysis
(DYOR & NFA)
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🌐 EN: For new traders, MA99 acts as a crucial trend boundary. If price is above MA99, dips are buying opportunities; if below, pumps are just bounces.

EMERGENCY ALERT! $ETH just saw a 15-minute candle spike of +3.87%, accompanied by massive volume at 5.1x the average, pushing the price up to $2,442.69. This sudden buying pressure clearly signals a short squeeze/FOMO pump. Derivatives data reinforces the bullish sentiment: Funding at +0.0100%/8h, 67.3% Long, and OI up +4.1% all point to extremely bullish sentiment.

However, the 15m RSI has hit 88.0, deep into overbought territory, so the risk of a pullback is very high. The 1H resistance at $2,443.14 is being broken, but we need a candle to confirm a solid close above it. If the price fails to hold, $ETH could retest the MA7 at $2,349.75 or fall further to support at $2,310.41. Traders: DO NOT FOMO into the top or try to catch a falling knife without a clear signal.

Can $ETH sustain this rally? Share your analysis! $ETH #EmergencyAlert #CryptoAlert Disclaimer: This is only a personal opinion, not financial advice.
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🌐 EN: $ETH just saw a +3.87% pump on huge volume, signalling a strong short squeeze/FOMO, with derivatives data supporting bullish sentiment.

$ETH is locked in a tug-of-war; 5-minute liquidation data shows the market has yet to find a clear direction. 😐

Over the past 24 hours, $ETH saw two minor liquidation sweeps. At 04:15, Longs were liquidated: OI fell -1.45% as the price dropped -0.85%. At 11:30, Shorts came under pressure: OI plunged -1.82% as the price rose +1.20%. These position closures only cleared shallow liquidity and haven’t broken the consolidation structure. Both Longs and Shorts are reducing exposure, while the whales haven’t made a decisive move. 🧮

Risk management is crucial for $ETH right now. Avoid going all in; split your capital or stay on the sidelines. Chasing tops or trying to catch bottoms can leave you stuck holding the bag. Wait for a stronger sweep.

Where will $ETH go while liquidity remains suspended? What do you think? 👀
$ETH #Write2Earn #RiskManagement #Altcoin
(DYOR—your money, your decision)

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🌐 EN: $ETH is consolidating with minor 5-min liquidation events for both Longs (OI -1.45%) and Shorts (OI -1.82%) in the last 24h. No major spikes cleared significant liquidity, indicating a sideways market.

Looking at $HOT today is downright depressing—it’s covered in red after that parabolic run. 😏 But for bargain-hunting traders like me, this is exactly when you need to stay calm and observe.

On the 1D chart, $HOT has clearly made a powerful multi-year breakout, sustaining a strong uptrend. It’s currently undergoing a healthy correction after a parabolic rally. The 1H chart shows the price pulling back from $0.000495, but still holding above the MA99 (around $0.0004), indicating that the medium-term bullish structure remains intact. The 1H RSI is at 48.0, and the 1D RSI is at 65.1. Data also shows the 15m RSI nearing oversold territory, while the 4h RSI is approaching the midpoint—signals that suggest a possible short-term bounce or consolidation after the sell-off.

The biggest catalyst is that the transition from HOT to HoloFuel officially began on 1/11/2026, turning this ERC-20 token into the native utility currency for the Holo hosting network and opening up applications ranging from hosting to AI chatbots. Holochain 0.7 has also launched, delivering a fivefold performance improvement.

The market is so compressed that $QNT price is just drifting around $194.50 like a low battery. Looking at QNT’s Bollinger bandwidth of just 7.78% (among the tightest 7%) and RSI at 48.6, I feel like this spring is about to snap. 👀

The Bollinger Bands are squeezed tight like a pressure cooker. Record-low price volatility often signals a sharp breakout. The tricky part is that nobody knows which direction it’ll go before volatility explodes 🤓.

It’s not just $QNT —ADA, with a bandwidth of 4.69% (top 8%), hovering around $0.1913, with resistance at $0.1949 and support at $0.1827, is also coiling. DOGE is at $0.07502, with a bandwidth of 4.05% (top 9%), and it’s in the same boat. SUI (bandwidth 6.03%) and CELO (bandwidth 8.35%) are also showing a tight tug-of-war.

Based on the current data, I’m not guessing the direction. The plan is to wait for a 4H candle to confirm. If QNT closes above $205.54, I’ll go with the bulls. If it breaks below $185.35, then get ready for a correction. Setting alerts in both directions is the best move 📐.

Anyone think this setup looks good, or have a different take on $QNT ? Leave a comment and let’s see who’s right next week 😐.
#Write2Earn #MarketUpdate #CryptoAnalysis
(Not financial advice—do your own research)

Watching $NEAR for a while now, it’s been steadily sliding downward, which is a bit rough for anyone who bought near the top in previous rallies. The 4H chart shows the price at $3.817 sitting below all the moving averages: MA7 ($3.819), MA25, and MA99, clearly confirming the downtrend. The 4H RSI is also hovering at 33.77. Although that signals oversold conditions, there’s no sign of a strong recovery yet.

Over the past week, $NEAR has fallen by as much as 21.10%, underperforming the broader market and other smart contract platforms by a wide margin, which points to intense selling pressure. In recent days, the NEAR community approved cutting the annual token issuance rate from 2.5% to 1.6% for 24 months. In theory, this is positive news for the long term because it reduces inflation, but it clearly hasn’t made much difference in the short term—the price is still plunging.

Derivatives data also shows Open Interest down 6.2%, while the whales’ long/short ratio (1.9125) is much higher than that of retail traders (1.1815). Are the big players accumulating, or are they stuck holding losses at the top? 😏

Given the current situation, I’m still leaning toward the short side for $NEAR .

The overnight crypto market was not too surprising, with trading mostly range-bound amid pressure from capital flows. BTC hovered around $77,278.60, up slightly by 0.30% after several U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw continuous outflows, with $398.6 million in net outflows on November 2 alone. Ethereum was similar, rising 0.40% to $2,268.04, but ETH ETFs recorded six consecutive days of net outflows, totaling $139.7 million on November 2 alone.

Market breadth stood at 46% green coins, indicating there was no across-the-board surge. Leading the gains were $BMT at +30.84% and HOT at +28.98%. These strong gains show that capital is still seeking out individual opportunities. On the other hand, HUMA lost 10.74% and INIT fell 9.17%, reflecting clear selectivity in the market. The 24-hour trading volume of the top 100 coins reached $2,559,271,018, indicating relatively moderate liquidity 😐.

Next week, traders will be watching the U.S. October CPI data, due on November 10, and the FOMC meeting on December 8–9.

Hey everyone, BTC is still giving me a headache this week. Over the past 7 days, I closed 9 trades: 5 wins and 4 losses. A 55.6% hit rate is not a pretty number 😅.

I want to take a closer look at the 4 trades that went wrong. LSKUSDT LONG at $0.2805, SOPHUSDT LONG at $0.00205, and INITUSDT LONG at $0.2215. All three of these long trades hit their invalidation points too quickly, showing that I rushed to buy while volume was still thin and the signals weren’t really clear. Especially with INITUSDT: only after the long trade failed did I dare to enter a SHORT, which turned out to be profitable—proof that the market was favoring sellers at the time. The LSK and SOPH trades were much the same: prices moved sideways, then suddenly broke down. I didn’t respect my invalidation points at all. 💀

On the other hand, SHORT trades like $INIT , NIL, and BLUR, as well as LONG trades on BEAMX and HYPE, went pretty smoothly and hit their TPs quickly. This showed me just how important it is to stay flexible and read reversal signals.

This week’s lesson is to be PATIENT and wait for stronger confirmation signals, especially for LONG trades when the market outlook is unclear.

Futures data shows $SOL currently has 76.1% of accounts Long 🤓, the highest on the board. The crowd is heavily 'piled into' one side.

With over 68% Long, this is a zone where stop-losses cluster, making it vulnerable to a liquidity sweep. Funding at +0.0100%/8h also makes it costly for Longs to hold their positions 📐.

SOL's top traders are also 70.5% Long, quite aligned with retail. But SOL's OI fell 1.0% as the price dropped, suggesting some profit-taking or stop-losses 😐.

The 'crowded long' trend is widespread across many pairs, from DOGE to BTC. The crowd being on one side doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong, but the risk of a liquidity sweep is always high. XRP stands out with OI up 25.3%, making it a 'hot' trade too 👀.

In short, will $SOL consolidate and then bounce, or get dumped on? Anyone have a different take? 👇

#Write2Earn #Altcoin #TradingStrategy
(NFA - I'm just sharing my personal perspective)

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🌐 EN: SOL shows strong 'crowded long' sentiment (76.1% accounts) with positive funding. Though top traders are also long, decreasing OI on a price dip hints at profit-taking/stop-losses.

$LITEB Right now, it really looks like a waterslide at the water park, guys! 😭 Seeing that daily candle blazing red makes my heart sink too. The price is at $690.65, down more than 25% in 24 hours—this really is a 'falling knife' 💀.

Looking at the 1D chart, a downtrend this strong is genuinely hard to withstand. All the key MAs are above the price, and the selling pressure is clear. Selling volume has also spiked on the 1D chart, confirming that the bears are firmly in control 📉. Although there’s been news about institutional interest in cLTC on Canton Network and events hosted by the Litecoin Foundation, it doesn’t seem to be enough to halt this slide. RSI on both the 1H (30.0) and 1D (35.3) charts is deep in oversold territory, suggesting there could be a small bounce to 'catch our breath' before... the journey continues.

Given the situation, I’m still leaning toward short positions in the near term, guys. The $705–$720 area is where I’ll be watching for a weak bounce. The next targets could be $670 and then $620.

Seeing a huge 24h volume of hundreds of millions of dollars and assuming the market is highly liquid is a big mistake. 😐 Sometimes, even a market order worth a few hundred thousand dollars can make the price jump around. The reality is that past volume doesn’t reflect the current depth of the order book.

With $BTC , liquidity is genuinely impressive: a $100k order has virtually no slippage (0.000%), while a $1M order slips just 0.001%. 🤓 Excellent. But look at NEAR, with a 24h volume of $91 million: a $1M order slips by as much as 1.343%. ZEC is no better—with $179 million in volume, a $1M order moves the price by 0.250%. That’s a hidden fee, folks. 🧮 ETH fares a little better, with a $1M order slipping 0.194% on $459 million in volume. SOL, with $162 million in 24h volume, also has 0.159% slippage on a $1M order. These numbers make it clear: past volume is one thing; current order book depth is what matters. 👀

Hidden fees from spreads and slippage can wipe out your account faster than getting the market direction wrong. NEAR’s spread reaches 2.63 bps, far higher than $BTC 0.00 bps. You think you’ve got a great entry, only to lose a few dozen percent of your profits to slippage.

$BTC The past few days have been really frustratingly choppy. It looked like a breakout was imminent, but it turned out to be a fakeout. 😏

On the 4H chart, the price of $BTC is stuck at $77,023.32, below all three short-term moving averages (MA7 $77,342.84, MA25 $77,614.82, MA99 $80,375.71). The bearish structure, with clearly lower highs and lower lows, confirms that sellers still have the upper hand. The 4H RSI is at 37.8, showing strong downward momentum but also nearing oversold territory, so there could be a small bounce before the decline continues. The market is moving sideways, but liquidity is no joke: $BTC ranks among Binance’s top 24-hour trading volumes, with over $1.1 billion USDT traded and a change of -1.89%.

It’s no surprise that money is flowing out of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with a record $643 million in net outflows in a single day on October 30. This pushed the entire month of October into negative territory and marked the largest daily net outflow since June.

This morning, BTC is hovering around $77k with relatively thin liquidity. The market is mostly red, with only 17% of coins in the green. Overnight flows point to extreme caution ahead of macroeconomic news. 😐

BTC is trading at $77,143.82, down 1.30% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum is also down 0.61% at $2,258.89. The total volume for the top 100 coins reached just $3.1 billion. Net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs in October totaled $515 million, while Ethereum ETFs saw record outflows of $1.61 billion last month, suggesting that many major players are reducing their positions. The psychological pressure from the $6.3 billion Binance hack at the end of October is still lingering.

Against this backdrop, HAEDAL surged 18.88% and SOXSB rose 13.91%, making them rare bright spots. By contrast, $INIT was heavily sold off, dropping 27.43%, while BEAMX fell 19.59%. Market breadth shows altcoins are under heavy pressure, with only a few moving against the tide.

Today is the U.S. midterm election day, and the October CPI report is due on November 10. These are macroeconomic factors that should be closely monitored when assessing the market's risk appetite.