$BTC has now officially tapped into the monthly FVG.
Back in 2023, we saw a very similar setup, with price selling off aggressively into this gap and partially filling it before expanding further to the upside.
That move marked the beginning of a 12-month rally that ultimately produced roughly 275% of almost uninterrupted upside.
Considering the diminishing returns we’ve seen throughout each cycle, I don’t expect the next rally to be quite as large, but I still think a new ATH around $140k-$160k remains a realistic target.
Space and Time Is Bringing Sub Second Verification To Blockchain Data
Blockchain data is abundant, but proving that a calculation is accurate remains a technical challenge. @SpaceandTime addresses this through Proof of SQL, a zero knowledge system designed to verify database computations without repeating the entire calculation.
Its published benchmarks demonstrate SQL analytics across more than 1 million rows in under one second. The architecture also supports EVM verification with gas costs below 150,000, making historical blockchain data more practical for smart contracts.
For $SXT , the interesting part is the infrastructure itself. DeFi protocols can verify financial calculations, while AI applications can work with cryptographically proven data instead of relying entirely on database operators.
That gives #SXT a technical narrative worth following beyond short term market activity. #sxt $SXT
Trading is more than just numbers it is a three-dimensional fight that rages primarily inside the traders themselves. Missing any crucial element can quickly ruin a trader. The trader must first develop a robust trading system that aligns with their personality and risk tolerance. Then they must trade it consistently, with discipline and faith, through ups and downs. But that’s not all. Risk exposure must also be managed carefully through position sizing and limiting open positions. Risk management has to carry the trader through losing streaks and enable survival, giving the chance to even make it to the winning side. Here are thirty rules that can help the new trader survive that first year in the trading markets or take the unprofitable trader much closer to profitability. Trade with the right mindset. TRADER PSYCHOLOGY Be flexible and go with the flow of the market's price action; stubbornness, egos, and emotions are the worst indicators for entries and exits.Understand that the trader only chooses their entries, exits, position size, and risk, and the market chooses whether they are profitable or not.You must have a trading plan before you start to trade, which has to be your anchor in decision-making.You have to let go of wanting to always be right about your trade and exchange it for wanting to make money. The first step to making money is to cut a loser short the moment you realize you are wrong.Never trade position sizes so big that your emotions take over from your trading plan."If it feels good, don't do it." – Richard WeissmanTrade your biggest position sizes during winning streaks and your smallest position sizes during losing streaks. Not too big and trade your smallest when in a losing streak.Do not worry about losing money that can be made back; worry about losing your trading discipline.A losing trade costs you money, but letting a big losing trade get too far out of hand can cause you to lose your nerve. Cut losses for the sake of your nerves as much as for the sake of capital preservation.A trader can only go on to success after they have faith in themselves as a trader, their trading system as a winner, and know that they will stay disciplined in their trading journey. Bring your risk of ruin down to almost zero. RISK MANAGEMENT Never enter a trade before you know where you will exit if proven wrong.First, find the right stop loss level that will show you that you're wrong about a trade, then set your position size based on that price level.Focus like a laser on how much capital can be lost on any trade first, before you enter, not on how much profit you could make.Structure your trades through position sizing and stop losses so you never lose more than 1% of your trading capital on one losing trade.Never expose your trading account to more than 5% total risk at any one time.Understand the nature of volatility and adjust your position size for the increased risk with volatility spikes.Never, ever, ever, add to a losing trade. Eventually, that will destroy your trading account when you eventually fight the wrong trend.All your trades should end in one of four ways: a small win, a big win, a small loss, or break even, but never a big loss. If you can eliminate the big losses, you have a great chance of eventually achieving trading success.Be incredibly stubborn in your risk management rules; don't give up an inch. Defense wins championships in sports and profits in trading.Most of the time, trailing stops are more profitable than profit targets. We need the big wins to pay for the losing trades. Trends tend to go farther than anyone anticipates. Develop a winning trading system that fits your personality. YOUR TRADING METHOD "Trade What's Happening...Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen." – Doug GregoryGo long strength; sell weakness short in your time frame.Find your edge over other traders.Your trading system must be built on quantifiable facts, not opinions.Trade the chart, not the news.A robust trading system must either be designed to have a large winning percentage of trades or big wins and small losses.Only take trades that have a skewed risk-to-reward in your favor.The answer to the question, "What's the trend?" is the question, "What's your timeframe?" – Richard Weissman. Trade primarily in the direction that a market is trending in on your time frame until the end, when it bends.Only take real entries that have an edge; avoid being caught up in the meaningless noise.Place your stop losses outside the range of noise so you are only stopped out when you are likely wrong. #CryptoZeno
The One Crypto Threat Your Hardware Wallet Can’t Defend Against
Most people believe that owning a hardware wallet is the final step in crypto security. That assumption is dangerously incomplete. A Ledger can protect you from malware, phishing, and remote attacks. It does nothing against the fastest-growing threat facing crypto holders today: physical coercion. According to Chainalysis, crypto-related home invasions and physical extortion incidents have increased sharply since 2023. As crypto wealth becomes more visible and more concentrated, attackers no longer need to hack your device. They only need you. 1. The Threat Model Has Changed Online threats are no longer the primary risk for serious holders. If someone forces you to unlock your wallet under duress, your hardware wallet offers no resistance. At that moment, security becomes psychological, structural, and physical rather than technical. 2. A Decoy Wallet Is Your First Line of Defense In a worst-case scenario, you need something you can safely give up. A secondary hardware wallet with a completely separate seed phrase, funded with a believable but limited amount, acts as a sacrificial layer. Transaction history, minor assets, and realistic activity make it credible. Its purpose is not storage but deception. 3. Hidden Wallets Add Controlled Disclosure Some hardware wallets allow the creation of passphrase-protected hidden wallets. One device can therefore contain multiple wallets, only one of which is visible under pressure. This enables staged disclosure, giving you options rather than a single point of failure. 4. Convincing Escalation Preserves the Core Under coercion, attackers typically escalate until they believe they have extracted everything. A small visible balance followed by a larger decoy balance often satisfies that expectation. What they believe to be your full holdings is not your real portfolio. 5. Your Real Holdings Should Never Touch That Device Serious holdings should be generated and stored fully offline, using air-gapped devices that never interact with internet-connected hardware. Seed backups should be stored on durable, fireproof, and waterproof metal solutions, never digitally and never on a device used for daily activity. 6. Seed Phrase Obfuscation Removes Single-Point Failure Splitting a seed phrase across locations, scrambling word order, and separating index information ensures that no single discovery compromises the wallet. Partial information should be useless by design. 7. Reduce Visible Attack Surface Once the real seed is secured offline, visible devices should contain only decoy wallets. If stolen or forced open, they reveal nothing of value. What cannot be discovered cannot be taken. 8. Physical Security Complements Wallet Security Home security layers such as silent panic systems, offsite camera storage, and motion alerts reduce response time and increase deterrence. Seed backups should never be stored at your residence. 9. Silence Is the Final Layer Even the most advanced setup fails if attention is drawn to it. Publicly sharing balances, trades, or security details creates unnecessary risk. Anonymity remains the strongest security primitive. Final Perspective If you hold meaningful crypto, your security architecture must be as sophisticated as your investment strategy. Real protection comes from layered deception, offline redundancy, geographic separation, and disciplined silence. They cannot take what they cannot find, and they will not look for what they do not know exists. #CryptoZeno #NvidiaInvestigatesAfterHuang’sAffairApology
$ETH A while ago, I pointed out a head and shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe and explained that, from a purely technical perspective, it looked pretty bearish.
Since then, price has retested the neckline once more and gotten rejected again.
The technical price target of $1,950 is still in play and becoming increasingly likely, especially now that we've formed another lower low.
So far, there are still no signs of strength on the HTF.
We are retesting the Wave B / Previous Yearly Low level at 74.4k.
This is the key S/R level for continuation to the upside. We can get a wick below into the 72.9k–72.5k region from here, but what matters is that we continue holding and closing our daily candles above this level.
I'm still expecting a bounce from this zone as long as we respect this Blue OB.
The bottom of this OB sits at 72.5k, which is the last line of defense for bulls. Losing this level will most likely open the doors for a move all the way down towards the 62k region again.
As for my swing longs, I'm still holding them. My SL is currently at 71.5k, which shouldn't get hit if we're going to hold this zone.
In case I'm stopped out, I'll look for a re-entry based on the PA at that moment. Reason I'm not widening my SL is simply because we have no reason to break below 72.9k-72.5k if we are going to bounce.
So a wide SL gets risky as we can just see a God Wick down into the lower 60k's if we can't hold here.
This area is always where bears get extremely loud and most become fearful of the market. Price will likely give a local bounce towards the 78–79K area.
If we compare the most similar fractal from the start of the previous bull market to the current one,
And mark the drawdowns, we will notice that the second drop was 1.87x more than the last drop.
Now the interesting part here is that if we multiply the same number with the first drop of the current range.
The levels we get are same as the expected max pain (72-73k).
Which brings us to the conclusion that the bottom is very close and all the people who are waiting for sub 70k or even low 60s are gonna be left behind.
We swept the previous low at 74.9k and retested the Weekly Kijun-Sen following a bullish crossover. This is also where we have the Wave B of this Total 3 Harmonic Pattern.
The last impulse towards the upside was our HTF Wave 1, and we're now retesting the Wave 2 levels and have already tapped into the Monthly Bullish FVG here.
Ideally, this retest should complete somewhere inside the 0.382-0.5 Fib region (76k-72k), as we don't usually see deep corrections in an impulsive trend.
Now obviously, it goes without saying that we have a lot of confluences stacked up here. And if we have indeed bottomed out, there's really no reason for us to lose this 74k-72k region.
Historically, Bear Markets have usually lasted around 365 days. This time, we bottomed out in just 266 days.
We did bottom out earlier than usual, but the standard 365-day window has also passed now, with us currently running on day 392.
I see no reason for us to break below this 74k-72k region unless we're heading into a prolonged Bear Market, which doesn't seem likely at this point.
This slow bleed to the downside (5 Consecutive Bearish Weeks) is going to be retraced quite quickly once we start pushing towards the upside.
MMs chase liquidity, and they've already taken out most of the liquidity towards the downside. Now, liquidity is stacked towards the upside, while the leading market sentiment is Fear.
To me, this seems like a page straight out of the same playbook they've been repeating for ages.
We have tapped inside the Monthly FVG and bounced for now on the LTF.
Given the historical behaviour around these FVGs, we should ideally see a bounce from here in the upcoming days, which should ultimately take us higher.
Now, we don't necessarily need to fill the FVG entirely in an impulsive market. Most of the time, even a small sweep is enough to trigger a reversal.
That said, we can still expect a retest of 79.2k in case we fill a bit more than just sweeping the FVG.
Overall, these are the Do or Die levels for bulls. Failing to hold this Bullish FVG will likely result in new lows.
CryptoZeno
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$BTC | Monthly
The Last Monthly Candle Closed as a Bearish Engulfing.
However, This doesn't necessarily mean we're heading lower, But it's definitely something to keep in mind, Considering this pattern has a historical reversal rate of 79%.
What's important to watch now is how price reacts around the Previous Monthly Low at 76.2k and the Monthly FVG Region at 74.9k-74.4k.
Ideally, We want to see a quick sweep of these levels, Followed by an immediate reclaim and acceptance back above.
We don't want to see price spending too much time chopping or ranging around these zones on the LTF.
The longer price stays around these levels without a strong reaction, The less likely we are to see a meaningful bounce.
I'm Bullish as long as we hold 74k on the Higher Time-Frames.
If lose it, I'll start paying attention to the Bearish scenarios.