The Retrospective of Five Wars in Search of the Sword: The Market Truth Under Geopolitical Crises
When significant geopolitical events occur, the reaction of capital markets often exceeds intuition. From the Gulf War in 1990 to the Israel-Hamas conflict in 2023, historical data reveals astonishing patterns of market absorption of shocks. 1. The Mirror of History: Market Insights from Five Major Cases 1. Gulf War (1990-1991): The 'Boots on the Ground' Effect • Event Context: In August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait, causing the S&P 500 to drop by as much as 17.0%; after the launch of Operation Desert Storm in January 1991, the market rebounded. • Key Data: Bottoming time 71 days, full recovery 90 days, 12-month return after the outbreak +10.1%.
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